***Boston -138 over BALTIMORE (7:35 Eastern)

The second of three "must wins" on my card today. Boston has let Cleveland and the Yankees leap-frog them and they are at risk of not even making the playoffs at this point! Can they beat Baltimore here to keep hope alive? Of course. Everyone else is beating the O's (they have lost five straight and seven of eight). Danielle Cabrerra has been hot but he's just 1-2 vs. Boston with a 6.75 ERA. Arroyo has also been hot, posting a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts. Boston puts up 5.7 runs per game vs. righties like Cabrerra. Baltimore actually scores fewer runs at home than on the road and over their past seven games, they've managed just 3.7 per game. Baltimore's off a close 7-6 loss to the Yankees last night and they are just 5-17 this season off one-run losses. Underdogs at +125 to +175 going for double revenge (2 straight losses vs. opponent), starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing are 16-56 (22%) over the past five seasons. Three stars on the hungry Red Sox tonight.

*Cleveland -265 over KANSAS CITY (8:10 Eastern)

Yet another huge mismatch here. Big line but worth it. CC Sabathia comes in with a 3.79 road ERA and over his last three it's at 0.78. Countering is Jose Lima with 6.95 ERA on the season that's at 10.93 over his last three. KC scores 3.8 per game vs. lefties while Cleveland scores 5.1 on the road. The Indians are putting up 7.3 per game over their last seven, though. The Indians are 16-4 in September and 16-2 in the second half of the season on the road vs. losing teams. Last night's big Cleveland victory said it all. KC has packed it in while Cleveland knows they must keep winning. One star on the Indians.