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MLB Baseball
Premium Edition |
September 15,
2005 |
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Rough
one yesterday as the White Sox blew a 2 run lead
in the bottom of the ninth and Milwaukee dropped
a close one in the twelfth. We're still up +941 units
in September and we look to get back to the winning
ways today.
View
past 2005
MLB picks.
Good
luck today...

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***HOUSTON
-170 over Florida (8:05 Eastern)
Pettite
takes the mound in a crucial game for the Wild
Card race. These two teams are in a dead heat
for the NL Wild
Card which will make this a playoff like atmosphere
in
Houston. Florida's bullpen is atrocious on the
road,
and ump Bill Hohn is a pitcher's best friend.
Good news for Andy Pettitte who is 15-9 with
a 2.48 ERA (2.26 at home). Over his five game
winning streak, it's down to 1.57. Road underdogs
of
+150 or
more with poor power (<0.9
HR's/game) and struggling to score (4 straight
games where
they stranded
7 or less runners on base) facing a starting
pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start
are just 7-59 (11%) since 1997. Houston is
19-10 vs. winning teams since the All-Star
break. Three stars on the Astros.
***St.
Louis +132 over CHICAGO CUBS (8:05 Eastern)
Prior
gets way too much respect. Yes, he is a very
good young arm, but the Cards are known for
taking top
pitchers to the woodshed. And, no one is hotter
than Jeff Suppan right now (1 earned run
givien up in his last three starts). Over
the last two seasons, Suppan 15-2 vs. marginal
losing teams (Win Pct. 46% to 49%). The Cards
are off a close loss and they bounce
back BIG after
those
types
of
losses.
They
are 26-4 after a loss by 2 runs or less this
season.
The Cards
do very
well after losing a game by any amount. St.
Louis is 45-9 following a loss this season.
After dropping one in ugly late inning action
against the lowly Pirates, they'll come out
swinging here.
This looks like great value. Three
stars
on the Cardinals.
*Detroit
+210 over LA ANAHEIM (10:05 Eastern)
Anaheim
dropped three straight to last-place Seattle. Oh
my. That ain't good for a team holding on to a one-game
lead
in
the AL West. All signs point to an easy Anaheim win
here tonight with Bartolo Colon on the mound but
wait a moment. Colon is only 8-7 against Detroit
with a 4.72 ERA while his counterpart, Mike Maroth,
is 3-1 vs. Anaheim. Maroth has pitched very well
on the road this season and he's been hot lately
with a 3.32 ERA. The Angels are barely over .500
in games in which they are huge favorites (-150 or
more) this season and they have a losing record (11-14)
vs. losing teams in the second half of the season
(see Seattle). Against really bad teams like Detroit
(38% - 46% win %), they are just 7-12. With their
propensity to play down to their competition, we
think Detroit has a shot here and at this line, it's
great
value. One star on Detroit.
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How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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