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*CLEVELAND
+152 over Minnesota (7:05 Eastern)
Cleveland
lept into first place with wins combined
with the Yankees choke act againt the Devil Rays.
Lost in all of this is that the Indians are pretty
damn good. They have a tremendous bullpen, and
while
their lineup is not powerful, it is full of hitters
with gap power who produce. Tonight, due to Johan
Santana, we get them as a live dog. Underdogs
with
an excellent bullpen
whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season and
average offensively (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) facing
a very good starter (ERA <3.50) are 55-29
(66%) since 1997. Minnesota is not the
same team without Hunter, and while
Santana
has been hot, the Indians have been better, which
presents some nice value here. The Indians are
here
to stay and GM Shapiro, who is the best young GM
you've never heard of, has this team on the verge
of
the playoffs. Cleveland has every advantage here
except starting pitching. Nice value on the dog.
One star on Cleveland.
***Oakland
-117 over TEXAS (8:05 Eastern)
No
one has been hotter in the second half than
the
A's as they've put up a 23-9 record on the
road. To top it off, no one has been better
than Zito
in the second half either. Texas is just 11-22
against left-handed starters this
season. The A's bullpen
is red hot as well. Oakland is 9-0 in road
games vs. excellent fielding teams that average <0.5
errors/game
in the second half of the season this season.
The Rangers are coming off a six-game road trip
and they are only 5-16 (-11.9 Units) against
the money line after 6 or more consecutive
road games 5-16 this season following 6 or
more consecutive road games. Strike while
its hot,
or so the
saying
goes, and the A's are that.
Three
stars
on
pure value here with Zito.
*COLORADO
-140 over Arizona (8:35 Eastern)
Colorado
has been much better in the second half as
their young hitters have become more patient,
and are
statrting to drive the baseball. Kim has also
been
exceptional for the Rockies and may have finally
found a long term home. Kim has posted a 0.92
ERA over his last three starts. Colorado
is belting 6 runs per game over their last
seven. Arizona is the opposite. They start
a pitcher in Estes, who is really cold right
now and their offense has also been in the
tank. Road underdogs of +100 to +150 that
are ice cold
hitting like Arizona (batting .240 or worse
over their last
20 games) and starting a cold
pitcher (ERA >7.50
over his last 3 starts) are just 5-31 (14%)
over the last 5 seasons. The Rockies have
always been better at
home, and have the best record in the division
in the
second half of the season. Those combine for
a one star Rockies play tonight.
*San
Diego -101 over LA DODGERS (10:40 Eastern)
The
Padres seemed to shed their losing ways in
the
last two games with the Rockies this week.
They
started doing the small things that win ballgames
and
will be crucial down the stretch run. Los
Angeles is 5-11 in home games after
a win by 2
runs or less this season. They start rookie
DJ Houlton who has a 1-7 record in his last
11 outings and 0-9 in the second half of
the season. San Diego's Woody Williams is
6-3 with a
2.59
ERA vs.
the Dodgers.
and
he's allowed just 5 runs in 17 innings in
his last three starts. The Padres strength
is their bullpen. Expect these games
to be
low
scoring,
and the Padres to win this series with timely
hitting
and their bullpen. One star on the Padres
here.
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