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MLB Baseball Premium
Edition - August 2, 2005
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*BOSTON
-223 over Kansas City (7:05 EST)
Huge
line we know, but this is a big mismatch and the
Red Sox need to keep winning as long as the Yankees
and A's do. Solid winning home favorites with a money
line of -200 or more off 3 or more
consecutive wins playing a
team with a losing record are 93-18 (84%) over the last
5 seasons. Boston
is 69-14 as a
home favorite of -200 or more over the last 3 seasons
and in those games, Boston won by an average of 3 runs.
The Red Sox kept Manny
at the
deadline
and he promptly rewarded them with a game winning hit.
They'll keep it rolling here. One stars on the
BoSawx.
*Atlanta
-131 over CINCINNATI (7:10 EST)
Sosa
has been tremendous since his return to the
rotation for the Braves. He has won four straight
decisions and looks to continue that trend tonight. This
Reds team could be dangerous here as they enter on
a five
game winning streak, all on the road. But the fact
remains that their bullpen is not good, and Ortiz has
been getting shelled in his latest outings. Somebody
get him an L screen, and now! That being said, due to
the hot hitting nature of the Reds currently, we sit
on the Braves here for one star.
*TEXAS
-170 over Tampa Bay (8:05 EST)
After
a good start to the season, Chris Young had a July to
forget, going 0-2 and putting up a 10.18 ERA. But in
his 5 starts he had to face a very hot Oakland team twice
and also the Red Sox. He won't be facing that kind offense
today. Instead he'll get a D-Rays club that scores just
4.3 runs per game on the road. And he'll have the run
support of a Texas team putting up 5.8 runs per game
at home. At home late in the season, the Rangers rock.
They are 21-5 in home games when playing against a team
with
a
losing
record in the second half
of the season over the last 3 seasons. One star on the
Rangers here.
**Houston
-154 over ARIZONA (9:40 EST)
Clemens
here for the Stros, who cooled a tad last
weekend, but now turn to their ace to keep it rolling
against the enigmatic D-Backs. The big difference in
this game will be the bullpens as the Stros should
keep Arizona at bay relatively easily. Clemens has been
especially ridiculous away from home posting an ERA of
0.3. You read that
correctly. Two stars on Houston.
*Baltimore
+194 over LA ANAHEIM (10:05 EST)
Baltimore
is slumping big time having lost thirteen of their last
fourteen, pushing this line up above where it should be.
Anaheim hasn't been doing much better as they've lost 6
of 7. Tonight the Orioles start Sidney Ponson who absolutely
owns the Angels to the tune of a 7-1 lifetime record. That's
reason enough to consider the O's with this huge underdog
line. Baltimore's offense is better by over a run per game
(5.3 runs per game on the road vs. 4.2 for LA at home).
Good value on the O's here who will be looking to prove
they can win without the 'roid man. One star on Baltimore.
***SAN
FRANCISCO -146 over Colorado (10:10 EST)
Helton
is on the DL, and this is the first real road
for for this young group without a big hitter in the
lineup. No, Larry Bigbie does not constitute a big
hitter. Colorado is 10-40
on the road, and scores a whopping three runs per
game. Keep in mind that Helton played in just about
all of those games, and Preston Wilson played in the
majority. They may get shut out tonight. Wright is
only 1-6 in his career against the Giants as well.
Colorado has never fared well by the Bay. Three stars
on the Giants here.
Check
up-to-the-minute lines on these games:
MLB
Lines & Odds
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How
much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every
star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick
= 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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