Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
Horse Racing - May 05, 2005
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The Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs 2005

The Basic Kentucky Derby Important Terms

First, let's get a definition of the term used for horse race betting, handicapping. Handicapping means evaluating the various factors of a horse's history, then balancing that information against the same info on horses in the same race. Simply put, it is the technical way of determining which horse will win a given race. Factors to study include pedigree, trainer, jockey, class, track, pace and speed.

Pedigree
A horse's ancestral line. If a horse's sire or dam were winners, then chances are that horse could be a winner also.

Trainer
The person responsible for a horse's development and race preparation. Not to be confused with the owner, whose claim to the horse is purely financial.

Jockey
The person who rides the horse during a race. If you didn't know that already, you may want to avoid handicapping and stick to the mint juleps.

Class
The level or quality of race at which a horse is running. Most well-known races are graded, Grade I being the highest, Grade III the lowest. For instance, if a horse which normally runs in only graded races were to step down in class and run in a non-graded race, that horse would be a sure favorite. If a horse were stepping up in class, that horse might, though not always, be less of a favorite. Movements between class is a great way to distinguish horses in a given race.

Track
The actual place where the race is held. Often times a horse that races well on one track will struggle on another.

Pace
How a horse likes to run a race. Some horses like to take the lead early and try to hold it, others like to reserve energy and come from behind. Pace and the distance of a race go hand-in-hand.

Speed
How fast a horse usually runs. Speed horses generally take to the lead early and establish pace. Those with stamina hope to outduel speed runners by the end of the race.

View past 2005 Horse Racing Picks

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The Wunderdog
Premium Picks

KENTUCKY DERBY 131
Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Top Choices
Horses who have shown quality races around two turns more than once in their career. I figure there is a BIG chance the winner will come from this group. Bellamy Road (3-to-1), Afleet Alex (9-to-2), Bandini (5-to-1), High Fly (10-to-1), High Limit (15-to-1) and Noble Causeway (15-to-1).

Contenders
Those that have run at least one quality race but may not be able to reproduce that quality consistently. A Derby win is within the realm of probability. Greeley's Galaxy (18-to-1), Sun King (18-to-1), Wilko (25-to-1), Don't Get Mad (25-to-1), Flower Alley (30-to-1) and Coin Silver (35-to-1).

Pretenders
Even with a career-best effort these horses would be hard-pressed to win. In other words, if one of these wins, you'll walk out of the track shaking your head and muttering to yourself. You might even consider quitting the game for a week. Greater Good (40-to-1), Sort It Out (40-to-1), Buzzard's Bay (50-to-1), Closing Argument (50-to-1), Andromeda's Hero (50-to-1), Giacomo (60-to-1), Going Wild (100-to-1) and Spanish Chestnut (150-to-1).

 

Wunderdog's Top Four

Bellamy Road - Earned the best Equibase Speed Figure, 97, of any horse in this race when winning the Grade 1 Wood Memorial in April. Horses who improve so markedly from one race to the next as he has can sometimes be subject to a “bounce,” or regression. Bellamy Road’s next best Equibase Speed Figure was 87, about five points below the main contenders in this field, but still close enough to be competitive if he improves upon it.

High Limit - Won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in March then ran second to Bandini in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. His regression from a 90 Equibase Speed Figure in the Louisiana Derby to an 84 in the Blue Grass is of concern, although we should note that he ran from off the pace for the first time in the Blue Grass after going wire-to-wire in his three previous races, all victories.

Afleet Alex - Winner of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 16, Afleet Alex overcame some problems prior to that race and exploded in the stretch to dominate by eight lengths, earning a 93 Equibase Speed Figure. Afleet Alex has appeared to look spectacularly since coming to Churchill Downs, with a sensational pair of workouts recently, and he too could improve off that very competitive last race speed figure.

High Fly - Winner of the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his most recent start, earning a career best 93 Equibase Speed Figure, High Fly continues to improve with each start. Each of his Speed Figures in 2005 has been better than the previous one, and with Jerry Bailey guiding High Fly for the third straight time and with more improvement possible, he appears to be very tough as part of the quintet of entrants trained by Nick Zito.

 

Top Choices Analysis

Bellamy Road: While much is made about his devastating Wood win, not all the speed-figure makers agree exactly how fast the race was. Beyer makes it one of the fastest three-year old races ever. Brown and Ragozin make it fast, but just a length better than Bandini's Blue Grass and Afleet Alex's Arkansas Derby. It's hard to take a low price - even if he is the best.

Afleet Alex: He may be able to overcome his lack of breeding with the trainer's exhaustive work regimen. His Arkansas Derby was fast and the last quarter-mile was sensational. Alex had had two super preps, but the caliber of horses behind him in those races is questionable.

Bandini: The Blue Grass winner has had three quality nine-furlong starts, moving forward in each. He has every right to improve again. His tactical speed will keep him out of a suicidal duel on the lead and keep him within striking distance of the lead. Bandini should be the third betting choice. He's my pick to win.

High Fly: His only loss in six starts may be attributed to a bad post at Gulfstream Park, where inside draws were richly rewarded going nine furlongs. He figures to be near the lead throughout. With Jerry Bailey aboard, he won't lose because of the trip.

High Limit: Trainer Frankel has won every major American race but the Derby. His style of lightly racing horses is not a winning profile in this spot, but talent and trainer must be respected. His only loss was a credible second to my top pick. He may have distance limitations.

Noble Causeway: Has shown improvement in each of his six career races. Like High Fly, he has been off for five weeks, but trainer Zito figures to have him fit. His closing style will benefit from a fast early pace. Since he is not a deep closer, he can avoid serious traffic problems.



The Bet

200 UNITS TO WIN & PLACE Bellamy Road TOTAL = $ 800.00

100 UNIT EXACTA BOX KEY / Bellamy Road WITH Bandini & Afleet Alex TOTAL = $ 400.00

Also consider... While I'm not betting it or making it an official pick, for those of you who want a trifecta play, consider a TRIFECTA KEY with Bellamy Road OVER Bandini, High Limit & Afleet Alex.

Good luck to you!

BET THE DERBY
Resources

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