The
Belmont
Stakes
- Horse
Analysis
(listed by Post)
1. NOLAN'S CAT
--------------
Jockey: Norberto
Arroyo, Jr.
Trainer: Dale
L. Romans
Odds: 50-1
Another who
is making his
Triple Crown
debut; has three
seconds and a
third in five
career starts
and career earnings
of $26,450; finished
second in a maiden-special-weight
race at Churchill
Downs on May
14; never has
won a stakes
race.
2. PINPOINT
-----------
Jockey: John
Velazquez
Trainer: Nick
Zito
Odds: 20-1
Another Zito
hopeful who has
yet to appear
in a Triple Crown
race; broke his
maiden in his
second career
start at Gulfstream
Park on March
5; won the Sir
Barton Stakes
at Pimlico in
May; has three
career wins in
four starts and
earnings of $113,291;
Velazquez has
finished among
the top 10 riders
in New York for
the past
12 years.
3. A.P. ARROW
-------------
Jockey: Jerry
Bailey
Trainer: D. Wayne
Lukas
Odds: 20-1
Did not run
in either of
the first two
legs of the Triple
Crown; broke
his maiden in
1 1/4-mile race
at Churchill
Downs on May
14 in what was
just his third
career start;
the Chestnut
colt never has
raced in New
York; Lukas has
saddled 10 Belmont
winners, including
A.P. Indy - the
sire of A.P.
Arrow; Bailey
won the Belmont
Stakes in 2003
with Empire Maker
and in 1991 with
Hansel.
4. SOUTHERN AFRICA
------------------
Jockey: Jon Court
Trainer: Michael
Puhich
Odds: 12-1
Was taken off
the Triple Crown
trail following
an unimpresive
showing in Santa
Anita's Sham
Stakes; the son
of Cape Town
needed some less
stressful opportunities
so he started
targeting some
stakes off the
trail, resulting
in victory in
the Borderland
Derby at Sunland
Park and second-place
in that track's
WinStar Derby;
the promise from
the 2-year-old
season came to
fruition as the
big dark bay
or brown colt
glided to an
impressive win
in the Grade
III Lone Star
Derby; four wins
and two seconds
in nine career
starts.
5. GIACOMO
----------
Jockey: Mike
Smith
Trainer: John
Shirreffs
Odds: 4-1
After winning
the Kentucky
Derby as a 50-1
longshot, Giacomo
never was a factor
before coming
on to finish
third in the
Preakness; finished
fourth in the
Santa Anita Derby
on April 9; has
been off the
board just twice
in 10 career
starts, sired
by 3-year-old
champion Holy
Bull, the 1994
Horse of the
Year; owned by
Rondor Music
chairman Jerry
Moss; Giacomo
is named after
rock star Sting's
9-year-old son;
Smith is a Hall
of Fame jockey.
6. WATCHMON
-----------
Jockey: Javier
Castellano
Trainer: Patrick
Reynolds
Odds: 50-1
Gray colt broke
his maiden at
Gulfstream Park
on April 8; never
has been off
the board in
four career starts
and has career
earnings of $47,560;
Castellano is
the regular ride
for 2004 Horse
of the Year Ghostzapper;
owner Paul Pompa
owns a trucking
company in Brooklyn
and lives in
New Jersey.
7. ANDROMEDA'S
HERO
-------------------
Jockey: Rafael
Bejarano
Trainer: Nick
Zito
Odds: 15-1
Finished eighth
in the Kentucky
Derby; did not
run in the Preakness;
the distance
of the Belmont
could benefit
this colt; never
a serious challenger
but came on to
finish third
in the Arkansas
Derby on April
16; ran a disappointing
fifth in the
Lane's End Stakes
in March; has
two wins and
two thirds in
seven career
starts; Zito
won the Belmont
with Birdstone
last year, denying
Smarty Jones
the Triple Crown.
8. REVERBERATE
--------------
Jockey: Jose
Santos
Trainer: Sal
Russo
Odds: 6-1
Did not run
in either of
the first two
legs of the Triple
Crown; In his
second career
start, Reverberate
broke his maiden
in a 6 1/2-furlong
race at Belmont
Park on September
11, 2004; has
been on the board
in six of eight
career starts;
finished second
in the Peter
Pan Stakes; Santos
notched first
victory in a
Triple Crown
race in 1999
when he guided
Lemon Drop Kid
to the winner's
circle in the
Belmont Stakes.
9. AFLEET ALEX
--------------
Jockey: Jeremy
Rose
Trainer: Tim
Ritchey
Odds: 6-5
After finishing
a game third
in the Kentucky
Derby, Afleet
Alex won the
Preakness Stakes
on May 21, nearly
fell after clipping
the heel of Scrappy
T before going
on to win by
4 3/4 lengths;
would have won
by a much wider
margin had he
not stumbled;
finished a disappointing
sixth in the
Rebel Stakes
on March 19 due
to a lung infection;
rebounded four
weeks later to
post an impressive
eight-length
victory in the
Arkansas Derby;
finished second
to Wilko in the
Breeders' Cup
Juvenile in October;
has seven victories,
two seconds and
a third in 11
career starts;
the last-place
finish in the
Rebel was the
only time he
was off the board
in his career;
is a son of Northern
Afleet; has career
earnings of $2,165,800.
10. INDY STORM
--------------
Jockey: Edgar
Prado
Trainer: Nick
Zito
Odds: 20-1
Did not run
in either of
the first two
legs of the Triple
Crown; lightly
raced colt has
two wins in seven
career starts;
broke his maiden
in his first
career start
at Calder in
December 2004;
Prado rode Birdstone
to a victory
in the Belmont
last year and
also was aboard
2002 winner Sarava.
11. CHEKHOV
-----------
Jockey: Gary
Stevens
Trainer: Patrick
Biancone
Odds: 12-1
Did
not run in
either of
the first two
legs of the Triple
Crown; broke
his maiden in
a 1 1/16-mile
maiden-special-weight
race at Belmont
Park on May 8,
winning by 8
1/4 lengths in
what was his
fourth career
start, the victory
came after the
colt had battled
foot problems;
ran fourth in
the Peter Pan
Stakes on May
28; also has
a second in five
career starts;
Stevens won the
Belmont Stakes
aboard Thunder
Gulch in 1995,
Victory Gallop
in 1998 and Point
Given in 2001.
Analysis
& Pick:
1st...Giacomo
2nd... Andromeda's
Hero , Indy Storm
, Pinpoint,
3rd...Afleet
Alex
Giacomo will
win the Belmont
Stakes, much
as he did in
the Kentucky
Derby. I expect
a much headier
ride from Mike
Smith than the
poor judgment
he showed in
the Preakness
Stakes, not moving
when Afleet Alex
made his move.
By the time he
found his best
stride at the
shortened distance
he was already
out of it. He
also has an improved
post position
(post 5) which
will enable him
to settle his
horse, saving
ground along
the rail, while
never more than
8 lengths back
of what figures
to be a very
slow pace. This
time Mikey will
have Rose under
his radar and
when he says
go, so will Giacomo.
He will wear
him down midstretch
and draw off
for the win.
The question
is whether Afleet
Alex will hold
for second. My
feeling is no!
If Giacomo blows
past him, he
wil probably
not hold the
place, allowing
for a longshot
to take second.
Which longshot
and why?
Here
are some of
the angles
that need to
be considered:
The jockey angle:
Mike Smith knows
Belmont and the
jocks in New
York respect
him. They often
don't treat outsiders
too kindly and
Jeremy Rose may
find the going
tougher than
he expects. Someone
once said that
New York is a
tough town; well,
Belmont is an
even tougher
track to ride
in. The huge
mile and a half
oval can be intimidating
to a newly arrived
young jockey,
who is prone
to making mistakes
(as he did in
the Derby). It
is real easy
to misjudge the
pace and use
your horse too
early (as he
did in the Derby).
It's not only
the distance,
it's the track.
The stretch run
is forever, especially
after you have
made the long
run around two
turns. Ordinarily,
I would not make
my decision as
to which horse
I bet based on
the jockey, but
in this case
it is significant
and one of the
reasons for my
selection.
The
Trainer angle
In fact, the
trainer is generally
far more important
a factor. And
based on that
reasoning, I
would have to
give the training
edge to Shirreffs
over Ritchey
only because
the California
circuit is much
more competitive
than the Delaware/Maryland
circuit. Both
veteran horsemen,
and not taking
anything away
from the leading
trainer at Delaware,
I still give
Shirreffs the
edge.
The past performance
angle:
Finally, the
most important
factor is, admittedly,
the horse itself.
I fear that Afleet
Alex may have
fired his best
race in the Preakness,
which was truly
an incredible
victory, overcoming
nearly going
to his knees
at the top of
the stretch.
And despite the
terrible trip
and bad racing
luck that Giacomo
faced in the
Preakness, he
was not going
to beat Alex
that day. But
the Belmont Stakes
is another day,
and I am afraid
that one will
play out more
like the Derby
than the Preakness.
I like Afleet
Alex's story
and his connections
seem to be very
magnanimous,
charitable people,
but I think Alex,
who was much
the best three
weeks ago, may
not even make
the money in
this test of
champion three
year olds.
Where
to look for a
long shot:
Trainer Nick
Zito likes to
upset the applecart
in big races
at his home track,
so who knows?
He saddled five
in the Derby
and they all
ran out. He saddled
three of those
five in the Preakness,
and they all
ran out. This
Saturday he originally
had planned to
saddle two horses,
only one of the
original five,
Andromeda's Hero
who hasn't raced
since his mediocre
but respectable
8th by seven
lengths finish
in the Run for
the Roses. But
he has now added
a third colt
by the name of
Indy Storm, and
he named Edgar
Prado to ride.
Yes, the same
jockey who navigated
Birdstone's winning
flight across
the finish line
one year ago.
Pinpoint, who
last ran in the
undercard Preakness
day at Pimlico,
is the other
Zito entrant,
rounding out
his trilogy.
So who knows?
Probably not
even Nick knows,
but the veteran
trainer does
know Belmont,
and he wants
to be a part
of the biggest
race of the year
in New York.
Who knows? Maybe
one of them will
emulate Birdstone's
success last
year, when he
played spoiler
for Smarty Jones.
Pick:
200 units Win
& Place: Giacamo
Notes:
Every
effort was made
to ensure accuracy
of program numbers.
Please confirm
prior.
1
UNIT = a $ 2.00
wager...Bet your
own bankroll.
Good
luck to you!
