!NAME_COMMA!
If
you haven't read it, check out my Nine
Steps to Successfully Handicapping the Horses.
Reading
the Menu
So
many bets, so little money.
For
horseplayers to succeed, they must be decision makers. Movers
and shakers. Doers. Not only must they solve the unique equation
that leads to selecting the right horse(s) in a particular
race but they also must choose the right wagering approach
in order to maximize their profits.
That
wasn't such a difficult thing in days gone by when Win-Place-Show
were about the only options available. You just picked the
best horse, waited for the right price and went to the window.
In the modern era of handicapping, however, you not only
have to pick the best horse but you then must consider how
to play it--Win only, Win/Place, Exacta key, Daily Double
key, Quinella key, Trifecta key, Triple key, Superfecta key,
etc., etc., etc. About the only thing nobody considers any
more is across-the-board which was a pretty popular play
back in the 1960's.
Handicapping
has become a "score" oriented game for the high
rollers who can afford to put thousands through the wickets
on any given day. They shoot for the Pick Six choosing to
single their best play(s) of the day and go deep in the other
races, particularly when there is a carryover involved. The
reasoning being that they can turn a winning 5/1 shot into
a six-digit payday in conjunction with some "contention" handicapping
in the other events in the sequence. If they succeed three
or four times a year, they win big. This is all well-and-good
for the well-healed player who can suffer through the inevitable
losing streaks without visiting Tap City. Most of us, however,
are not in that category. We're just working stiffs who enjoy
playing the races and are looking to supplement our income
rather than retire. This look at the existing wagering menu
is dedicated to us.
WIN
BET
Still the best approach to steady success at the races, wagering to win on
legit contenders going off as overlays is the tried-and-true way to go. You
don't have to (in fact, you shouldn't) restrict yourself to your top selection
in any race but instead should be willing to back any true contender going
off at healthy odds. Not too many bettors end up with a 10/1 shot on top in
their handicapping very often but most everyone has second/third/fourth choices
that run in and pay $20+ mutuels fairly regularly. Ultimate losers, however,
refuse to get off their top choice as an 8/5 underlay in order to back their
fourth choice at 17/1 because they prefer the safety of the crowd's thinking
over their own. These people can't conceivably win long term which is the basis
of 'value' handicapping. How much you bet should be determined by how much
you like the horse's chances of winning. If you normally bet $20 on a top-choice
overlay, you should probably bet $15 on your second choice and $10 on your
3rd or 4th. If you have more than four contenders in a race, that's an event
that should probably be passed.
WIN/PLACE
Place betting is expensive insurance. You can never actually win with a Win/Place
bet. If your horse runs 1st, you should have bet all your money to win.
If your horse runs 3rd or worse, you lose. If your horse runs 2nd, you
may have profited from the race, but you still have a right be unhappy
since your horse didn't run 1st. Still, insurance companies do a healthy
business in this country because of the safety net that is created for
people who fear the worst and want to be prepared for disaster. Those making
Win/Place bets consistently should do so only when backing horses at higher
than 5/1 odds. Bets of this sort do reduce the risk of long, potentially-mind
bending losing streaks and allow the player to keep a positive frame of
mind by making more trips to the cashiers. If you're a good player, 'Win/Place'
will cost you money over the long haul but the peace of mind may be worth
it. That's your call. If you're a bad player, it doesn't really matter
since you'll just be postponing the inevitable.
TRIPLE
Rolling Pick Three's are best capitalized on when you can find two out of three
races in a sequence with suspect favorites or when you have a strong single
that doesn't figures to be an overlay at post time. With a $1 minimum wager
in California, you can use two horses in each event for $8 or three horses
for $27 which gives you a chance to make a nice score by beating the favorites.
However, remember to also play your key horse(s) to win if the price is
right in the first two legs because you don't want to blow a nice mutuel
should things fall apart later on.
With
small fields so prevalent locally these days, you can single
your short-priced key horse with multiple horses in the other
two legs (especially if the favorites are vulnerable) looking
to turn an 8/5-shot into a 10/1+ payday. For example, instead
of betting $40 to win at puny win odds, take two contenders
from one heat and three from another and bet a $7 ticket
($42). If the key wins and you don't hit the Triple, you
don't feel as stupid missing a $5.20 mutuel as you would
a $22.20 screamer.
DAILY
DOUBLE
Once very popular, the Daily Double(s) is pretty much forgotten these days.
The "late" Double is more interesting than the early one since you
may have a short-priced standout in one of those races and it's gives you an
investment option that is better than backing it to win. Hollypark's rolling
Doubles also provide a chance to employ that strategy when the other legs of
the Pick Three feature a solid favorite or a race that borders on the impossible.
EXACTAS
Everybody still loves the Exacta but they have caused the expiration of many
a player as they watched their 10/1 and 15/1 shots get split by the favorite.
Essentially, handicapping Exactas requires a different approach to the
game. It's necessary to consider horses that don't figure to win instead
of just tossing them out. You know, the no-speed plodders, the 0/22's in
a maiden race, the low-percentage jocks/trainers, etc. Then, of course,
you're also betting on horses to do something their human connections aren't
that interested in--finishing 2nd. Most trainers would rather run 3rd (or
worse) if they can't win since the horse would figure to come back fresher
and more enthusiastic for the next go-round. Nobody wants their stock beat
up trying to run 2nd. It doesn't make any sense from the big picture. Exactas
are best employed when you truly can't separate contenders on paper or
on the toteboard. Personally, I'd rather key a solid horse in the Pick
Three rather than 'on top' in the Exacta but that's just my preference.
QUINELLAS
The Quinella can be a nice replacement for the Win/Place bet. Take your top
overlay to win and then play it in the Q with two or three good-priced
contenders giving you a chance to win both wagers. In this situation, you
actually have a chance to make a nice profit if your key runs 2nd, beaten
by one of your pricey contenders. Instead of getting an $8 place price,
you may catch a Q for $40 or $50 or more. Another positive Q situation
is when you're dealing with a favorite that figures to run well at a mini-price
and feel there are a couple of longshots in the race that look as good,
or better, than the next few betting choices.
TRIFECTAS
All the reasons that make Exactas tough to play, make the Trifecta even worse.
I'll tell you what, nobody out there WANTS to run 3rd. There's enough craziness
in a race to begin with before you try to figure out what horse is going
to stumble into the show dough. If it's a favorite, it's not going to pay
anything anyway and your money was better spend in the Win or Exacta pools.
If it's a whacko horse, you better have the "all" box on the
bottom and that gets expensive. Let's not even bring up the Superfecta
which I covered in this space not too long ago anyway.
REVIEW
In review, things really haven't changed all that much. Betting overlays to
win is still the right approach to beating the races consistently. It's
amazing how many smaller bettors will not hesitate a second to put in a
$5 Exacta box on three horses for $30 but refuse to bet the same amount
of money to win on a 10/1 shot that should be going off at 5/1. Good
luck this today!COMMA_NAME!!
|
RACE
#8 at Keeneland
on Sunday, April
10, 2005
