!NAME_COMMA!
We
hit the $3 winner and #23.60 exacta yesterday. Overall
we're +3,340% ROI on the horse picks.
If
you haven't read it, check out my Nine
Steps to Successfully Handicapping the Horses.
NTRA
Road to the Kentucky Derby on NBC
Apr. 9 NBC 4:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.
Santa
Anita Derby (LIVE) - Santa Anita
Illinois Derby (LIVE) - Hawthorne
Wood Memorial (LIVE) - Aqueduct
Santa Anita Derby
Calm filly with high-strung trainer
Sweet Catomine is behaving with her usual self this week,
but her trainer is washing out. Julio Canani
never before has run a horse in the Kentucky Derby, or
the Santa
Anita
Derby, let alone a filly, let alone the favorite, which
is what Sweet Catomine will be when the Grade 1, $750,000
Santa
Anita Derby is run for the 68th time on Saturday. Sweet Catomine landed post 2 against 10 males when the
field of 11 was drawn on Wednesday morning for the
1 1/8-mile Santa
Anita Derby, the final major West Coast prep for the May
7 Kentucky Derby. Jeff Tufts, the morning-line maker at
Santa Anita, made Sweet Catomine the 7-5 favorite.
She carries
117 pounds, five fewer than the males. The Santa Anita
Derby has seen 25 fillies take on males, beginning
in 1935. There
have been three fillies who won the race - Ciencia in 1939,
Silver Spoon in 1959, and Winning Colors in 1988. Both
Silver Spoon and Winning Colors were favored. Winning
Colors is
the last filly to win the Kentucky Derby, and is one of
only three to wear the roses. Sweet Catomine will be
facing males
for the first time on Saturday, but she has earned the
opportunity. Since finishing second in her debut going
5 1/2 furlongs
at Del Mar last July, Sweet Catomine has won five consecutive
races. Her victory in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Fillies earned her the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old
filly.
Sweet Catomine was bred by the Wygods in Kentucky. She
is a daughter of Storm Cat, and is out of the Kris S. mare
Sweet
Life. Her pedigree is impeccable, the kind that would have
made her a summer-sale yearling had Wygod opted to sell
her. But Wygod breeds to race, and said he has dreamed
of having
a Kentucky Derby runner since he first got interested in
the sport in his teens.
Giacomo
Grade 1-placed colt defeated 2 of these in the San Felipe; been very close in
4 defeats following last fall's maiden romp over the track; is a half to
Grade 3-placed Sea Jewel (0-5, 105K in dirt routes); defeated Wilko twice
since his Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory; rider-barn are 1-for-9 this meet;
he's still eligible for n1x allowance company; certainly fits here, but the
lack of wins has me thinking underneath.
Sweet Catomine
Taking the Winning Colors route as that filly won the Santa Anita Derby, then
the Kentucky Derby; Sweet's only loss was in unveiling when she was 5-wide sprinting;
as a 2-year-old, she saved her best for the biggest spot in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Fillies, so figures to be primed for her best today; hasn't posted her
best Beyers in either of her 2005 races; rider-barn are 2-for-8 this meet; the
lack of early speed in this event could hurt her late kick, but she's not meeting
the most accomplished group with Wilko the only other Grade 1 winner in the field;
a big effort punches her ticket to the Kentucky Derby.
Don't Get Mad
Grade 2-placed runner rallied mildly over a track that favored speed on San Felipe
day; the added distance figures to help this late-striding colt, but the lack
of pace here may hurt; rider-barn are 0-for-3 this meet and his dam was 0-for-3
in dirt routes (10K); latest was a career-best Beyer and he still found himself
behind similar; others appeal more.
Allright
Lesser half of the Hines-trained entry is 0-for-3 on dirt and was up for sale
2 starts ago; turf win NoCal didn't impress; he's ambitiously placed to say the
least; sire finished 2nd in the '97 SA Derby before winning the Ky. Derby; pass.
Go Coyote Joe
Is 1-for-1 in the slop and 3-0-0-0 on fast tracks; went evenly in his allowance
and Grade 2 races, which is why this spot is a bit puzzling; 2-back show horse
Beyered 63 in next-out BM starter allowance win; would be a major surprise.
Customer
Maiden in this overmatched coupling fired his best career start on turf, finishing
behind similar on dirt 2-back at Bay Meadows; blinkers are added off recently
favored defeat on SA grass; winner of debut won right back in a SA n1x alw. (95
Beyer); perhaps part of the pace.
General John B
Stakes winner exits a Grade 2 event where he was bumped early, which hurt his
chances of making the front; there doesn't seem to be a lot of pace in this race,
which could elevate this front runner into exotics play status; winner of latest
won last Sat.'s 1M Fla. Derby (102 Beyer); his dam was 0-for-13 in dirt routes
(11K); good 3rd over the track sprinting when behind Going Wild, who won the
100K Sham next out (100); barn-rider are 0-for-7 this meet; big factor if makes
an easy lead.
A. P. Arrow
Lacks plenty of racing experience, but is bred for stardom, a half to Grade 1
Geri (9-19, 1.7M), who was super on both dirt and turf; his sire won the 1992
SA Derby; exiting the debut sprint, have to think the new rider (4-for-13 for
the barn this meet) will have him forwardly placed in a race lacking gate speed;
tough call here for a maiden with just one start; may end up being a good one,
but the arrows point me elsewhere.
Wannawinemall
Grade 3-placed colt received a perfect setup in 1st start vs. winners NoCal,
rallying into a hot pace, but unable to catch the winner; style suggests the
longer distance the better, but see regular rider Smith siding with Giacomo;
needs to up the Beyers and would prefer if this race had a lot more pace.
Buzzards Bay
Was run down late by Wannawinemall and that doesn't bode well for this trip with
additional yardage; Golden Gate Derby winner posted his career best Beyer on
a less than fast track; have to rank a notch below off latest.
Wilko
Declining Beyers since his shocking Breeders' Cup Juvenile upset over Afleet
Alex, Sun King and Consolidator, who have all come back as 3-year-olds with giant
efforts; reunites with the rider of his biggest victory after not breaking as
sharply as expected in the San Felipe; I know he is better than last pair and
April 1 bullet work at Hollywood suggests he's coming into this race primed for
his best; the one to beat.
Wood Memorial Analysis
This race is always a tricky call as the real prize is
just down the road on the first Saturday of May. But for
some, without a strong effort here, there
will be no dreams of a Kentucky Derby. Have to think that Scrappy T, Byanosejoe,
Pavo, and Naughty New Yorker need to step it up a notch while Bellamy Road,
Survivalist, Going Wild, and Galloping Grocer need simply to stay sharp while
adding somewhat to their graded earnings. Expecting a solid pace as Scrappy
T, Bellamy Road, Going Wild, and Galloping Grocer all have good speed. Keeping
that in mind and also our never-ending search for value, we've landed on
Pavo. When was the last time he ran a poor race? Try four
back in the Count Fleet
when he was steadied on the 2nd turn. In fact, this colt has had poor trips
in four of his last five starts. Granted, some horses make trouble for themselves
but this colt looks to be unluckier than anything. We'll know one way or
the other today as new pilot Jerry Bailey is one of the
best, if not the best,
in properly placing a horse for maximum effort. In other words, he always
seems to be in the right place at the right time. Scrappy
T
Fresh speed is often this best kind and this guy should have plenty of that to
offer as the rail draw and switch to Bejarano make him a certain send on the
step up to G1 company; likely to encounter early pressure from the California
invader, Going Wild, and possibly even Galloping Grocer who has made it pretty
clear that he does not enjoy being rated; both career scores came when he was
able to relax on the front end and while it's hard to envision that happening
today, he's certainly eligible to last for a share of this big pot.
Byanosejoe
Didn't think this guy was stakes quality, but he proved us wrong in the G3 Gotham
as he got within a couple of lengths of the winner at the wire despite encountering
trouble; Dutrow reaches out for Santos to pilot gelding who was ok in his lone
2 turn attempt when trying winners for the first time; best case scenario is
that the cozy draw enables him to save all the ground early behind a 3 way duel,
but even if he puts away the pacesetters, would he have enough to hold off the
late runners? Tough call today as he's lightly raced and has some upside.
Bellamy Road
That was some performance in his return to the races last time and the effort
earned him this field's highest last out Beyer; one of several top notch Kentucky
Derby contenders for Zito, this colt will likely need to prove he doesn't need
the lead to win in this spot as both of his distance wins have come while on
the engine; he's been working well out of town for this, but this track is unchartered
ground for him and you never know how they are going to take to new surroundings
until they actually try it; likely huge factor, but he's likely to be overbet
in this spot.
Survivalist
Regally bred colt got a great setup in the Gotham, a race that came back pretty
slow on the Beyer scale, but 4 guys who finished behind him return here as well;
Shug has had very high hopes for him from the beginning and today's 2 turn trip
may very well be just what he needs to break through to the next level; race
looks to set up very well for him as there should be quite a bit of early pace.
Going Wild
Speedster came into his own at Santa Anita this winter where he went from a maiden
on opening day of that meeting to a graded stakes placed, multiple stakes winner
in just 4 starts; Lukas trained runner is another who is working well out of
town, but will have to deal with the new surroundings; concerned that he's relatively
one dimensional as he's never won without the early lead and he'd likely have
to work very hard to get the top spot from the gate today; Espinoza treks here
for the mount, but we're expecting he'll take money at the windows so we'll try
to beat him on the win end.
Pavo
If you haven't seen the Gotham as of yet, check the replay to see the amazing
display of horsemanship put on display by Alan Garcia who lost his irons early
on yet never gave up on this guy but will now be replaced by Bailey; not sure
that this guy really wants 2 turns and that grass is not the surface over which
we'll see his best, but he certainly tries hard; may not be as good as the better
ones in here, but he should be a decent price and that's something to consider
for exotic purposes.
Galloping Grocer
State bred's bubble burst when his early efforts took their toll on him in the
Whirlaway off the layoff and he showed he wants nothing to do with the rating
tactics Luzzi employed on the turn back last time, so we'd have to think he'll
be sent from the bell today and that could subject him to a wide journey; obviously
mega talented, we'd normally be enthused with today's draw as a stalking trip
from close range is entirely possible; until he agrees to be rated, he's likely
to be a money burner in top company, but he's quite usable underneath in exotics.
Naughty New Yorker
Field's other New York bred entrant was found to have bled in the Gotham effort
behind Survivalist while finishing less than 2 lengths off that rival and he'll
now be administered with Lasix; late runner broke his maiden over this surface
and he's displayed a serious affinity for 2 turn racing; there's plenty of early
speed in here which should allow him to revert to his one run style and he's
been working quickly for this; expecting him to be a huge factor in the lane
and he just may run by them all.
Illinois Derby Analysis (A
- D- LIST AFFAIR-- STAY AWAY FROM RACE.. BUT IF NOT READ
UP!)
Saturday's Illinois Derby-G2 finds a field of nine three-year-olds seeking
graded earnings that might earn them a spot in the Kentucky Derby field
in addition to needing to prove that they are worthy of competing in Louisville.
Likely favoritism should fall on the John Battaglia Memorial winner Magna
Graduate, recently fourth in the Lane's End at Turfway over a muddy track.
This colt
has had more graded stakes experience than anyone else and has faced leading
Ky Derby contenders Greater Good and High Fly. Concern that he comes back
in just two weeks from the Lane's End, but trainer Byrne says he's a tough
horse
and came out of his last race in super shape. The Todd Pletcher trained
Monarch
Lane is short on racing experience but long on talent. After winning at
first asking, he was third to subsequent Tampa Bay Derby-G3 winner Sun
King and
Gotham S-G3 champ Survivalist in a N1X at Gulfstream. Note the trouble
line that day
and realize he overcame alot after ducking out from the outside post. A
trio of colts fresh from N1X wins in California, New York and Florida who
are
improving with each race are Greeley's Galaxy, Rikman and Unbridled Energy.
The former
drew away easily at Santa Anita in his first route on March 10. Rikman
is the only member of this field to have won at 1 1/8 miles, which he did
at
Aqueduct
the same day Survivalist won the Gotham. Unbridled Energy dueled for the
lead from go and pulled away to win a 7 1/2 furlong N1X in just his third
career
start at Gulfstream. This race seems to set up perfectly for local hope
Win Me Over, an Illinois-bred. A deep closer, this Vanier homebred should
see
a quick pace up front with just about every other member of this field
possessing early speed. Concern that he meets the toughest field of his
career and aside
from finishing second in the Flag Officer last out, all his success has
been against state-breds.
Good
luck this today!COMMA_NAME!!
|
Aqueduct
- Wood Memorial
(G1)
