!NAME_COMMA!
Yesterday
lost the first race but hit both the Exacta (paid $12.20)
and Trifecta (paid $18) in the second. Overall we're
+4,125% ROI on the horse picks. Today I've got picks in the Mountaineer
#6 race.
 How
to bet the ponies
I've
had several requests from people interested in Wunderdog's approach.
Here's my approach so now you know!
No
matter what your level of expertise, it's often wise to "get
back to basics" and
review the rudimentary elements of this challenging,
sometimes exasperating,
bit of mental stimulus known as handicapping. Everyone handicaps differently but these elements should always
be addressed before making a wager. They are offered in order
of importance to the overall equation.
1.
FORM: Nothing else really matters if a horse is not in "form" and
the first task in attacking a race is to eliminate those runners
that don't appear to be fit from a condition standpoint, either
through recent racing or with a string of workouts that suggest
the animal is set to do its best work. A competitive recent
race (accompanied by the necessary a.m. maintenance if it's
last race was more than two weeks ago) is the most reliable
indicator for fitness. Horses that haven't raced in 30+ days
should either offer ample workout evidence that they are doing
well, have a history of performing well off short (or longer)
breaks and come from barns that regularly win races. The group
that doesn't fit into this rather wide parameter should be
eliminated from further consideration, allowing the handicapper
to concentrate on the true contenders. It doesn't matter what
a horse has done in the past if it doesn't look capable of
running well today. On the other hand, don't be quick to draw
an "x" through potential longshots that come off
bad lines if they had legitimate excuses like racing at an
unsuitable distance, on an unsuitable surface, fought a strong
track bias, is moving from a losing barn to a winning one or
has been given a freshener followed by positive workout activity.
2.
ABILITY: How fast can the remaining horses in the field
run on their best day? That's the next question to be answered.
There are many different ways to evaluate talent in this era
of speed figures and performance ratings.. The task at hand
is to determine two things: What is the horse capable of doing?;
and, what does it figure to do today? Those horses that do
not figure within three lengths of the top contenders in the
race can be eliminated.
3.
CLASS: This is a tricky part of the puzzle since horses can
improve and regress quickly in this day-and-age
of year-round
racing when trainers try and squeeze races out of horses that
obviously need a rest and the track veterinarians help them
do it with an array of legal medications. Often, outclassed
horses will be eliminated in Step #2 but in the case of horses
stepping up in class off impressive efforts, it's necessary
to analyze how those figs were earned. Horses that benefitted
from easy pace pictures, strong bias situations or simply raced
against a bad bunch of rivals, should be viewed with skepticism
when trying to step up to a tougher level. The best class jumpers
to play are those that tailed off, dropped in class and are
now moving back up while appearing to have regained their form. "Past
Class" is a big handicapping plus and is often overlooked
by many players.
4.
RACE CONDITIONS: Does the horse like today's surface and
today's distance? Even horses that are in form and have the
ability and the class to win are generally beaten when entered
in unsuitable races. Some horses move easily between sprints
and routes or from dirt to turf while others do not. Before
leaving a contender in the mix any longer, be relatively certain
in your mind that he'll handle today's conditions.
5.
CONNECTIONS: The human part of the equation is substantial.
True, a great rider and an accomplished trainer
can't win on
a bad horse but by this stage you should have eliminated the "bad" ones.
However, "good" horses can be beaten by a jock's
poor decision or by a trainer who has a hard time cinching
up a saddle correctly. Let the record guide you in this area.
Eliminate horse's trained or ridden by traditionally low-percentage
stables or jocks and take a long, hard look at short-priced
types that are trained or saddled by individuals mired in ongoing
slumps. Just as professional athletes in all sports go into
slumps, so do trainers and riders. The more they lose, the
more they think and the more they think, the more they lose.
That's just the way it is.
6.
BREEDING: Pedigree analysis is only significant when analyzing
a horse that has not had ample (or no) opportunity to show
what it can do under today's conditions. First-time-starters
bred for sprint speed vs. those bred to run best going longer.
Sprinters trying to go long. Dirt types moving to turf. The
only time you should concern yourself with breeding is when
a potential contender has survived the first five steps of
this procedure. When playing a horse 'on the come', always
get good value and be willing to bet against (or pass the race)
when the favorites are not proven under today's conditions,
even if their pedigree says they should handle the situation.
Just because they're bred to do it, doesn't mean they WILL
DO IT, first or second time around anyway.
After completing these six steps you should have eliminated
the pretenders and whittled the field down to the contenders.
The more contentious a race looks on paper, the more 'value'
you should demand. It makes no sense to back the favorite in
a ten-horse field where it looks like five other horses can
also win. Make some kind of odds line so that you have an idea
of which horses are true overlays in your own mind.
9
STEPS TO SUCCESSFULLY HANDICAPPING THE HORSES
1.
Establish your bankroll. This should be "investment" capital
and not money that is needed to sustain your daily lifestyle.
Don't under-capitalize yourself but, on the other hand, don't
go crazy either. Your bankroll should be an amount your comfortable
with. Determine
the percentage of your bankroll you are willing to invest
on any particular race. Two percent is a reasonable
amount.
2.
Assess the favorite. In your initial overview of a race,
attempt to determine whether the favorite is "solid", "vulnerable" or "false".
Don't waste time on races where the favorite looks tough and
concentrate on those events where the chalk can be erased.
Try to limit yourself to six-to-eight truly-playable races
on a typical day if investigating both the northern and southern
circuits. Three-to-five is a good number if concentrating on
one track but this number can go up or down based on the opportunities
available.
3.
Pick your contenters. Employing whatever handicapping methods
you prefer, establish the order of preference for your contenders.
Make a "value" line
to help in your ultimate on-track decisions.
4.
Use your imagination. Attempt to visualize how a race will
be run and don't be afraid to go against the flow. If you can't
get a clear picture of what's going to happen beforehand, you
probably don't have a good idea on which horses to bet on.
5.
Plan your day. Eliminate the un-playable races and sketch
out a battle plan on paper with potential win bets, singles,
exotic wagers, etc. In other words, have an idea of what you
are going to do before you go to the track.
6.
Don't waffle. Once you're in the thick of the action, stick
to your guns. Let the toteboard determine your final moves
and
not
the guy
at the bar who heard from his trainer that such-and-such a
trainer really likes his horse in the 5th. It's your money
and you should make it or lose it on the basis of your own
opinions.
7.
Apply disciplines money management. Don't press when you
lose or increase your wagers when you win. Protect your bankroll
and don't
be overly
aggressive.
Remember that there will be plenty more opportunities the next
day and the day after and the day after that. Winning or losing
on one individual day really doesn't mean a thing. Only the
long term matters.
8.
Adjust when it makes sense. Be willing to change
your thinking if evidence warrants. Perhaps a strong bias
has appeared.
Maybe
your
top
selection is grossly overbet. Be prepared to move on to your
second or third choices if that's where the 'value' happens
to be. If your top choice is simply 'overbet' in the win pool
and you have no strong secondary options, look for ways to
exploit the short-priced horse in the exotics. Bankroll
Management.
9.
Have fun. Keep your composure and keep your sense of humor.
Both are weapons that can help you overcome adversity and succeed
at a game that is difficult, but not impossible, to beat.
Later this week I'll share my thoughts on Reading
the Menu...
Good
luck this today!COMMA_NAME!!
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