!NAME_COMMA!
 Week
17 Recap
We ended the season nicely in week 17, going 2-1 ATS and
2-1
on
the
moneyline.
Overall it was a 4-2 (67%) weekend for +243 units. The NFL picks remain
on a 61%
run since
Thanksgiving and we ended up with 11 winning weeks out of 17 (65%) during
the
regular
season. As
always, you
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Wildcard
Weekend - Wunderdog Ramblings
Did
an 8-8 team really make it into the playoffs? I am truly
embarrased for the NFC. Neither Seattle nor St.
Louis have
any business being in the playoffs whatsoever. I might just
boycott watching that game. On second thought, I'll pick
a winner and watch it anyway...
Dennis
Erickson and his GM, Terry Donahue were fired.
I wonder why. Oh yeah, the 49ers won
two games this season
and Erickson had a 9-23 record as head coach. Take a
hint from Steve Spurrier, Dennis, and go back to
the college ranks and win another national championship or
two...
San
Diego is en fuego! For my spanish-challenged readers,
that means they are kicking some booty and taking names.
Did you notice that these guys went 13-1-2 ATS this season.
That's
nuts.
Prior
to this
season,
New England owned the best ATS season mark at 13-2-1
mark last season. How remarkable has San Diego's run been?
Consider
that over the past 13 weeks, they haven't lost against the
spread and they are 11-2 straight-up. They face the J-E-T-S
Jets Jets Jets on Saturday...
Speaking
of the Jets, they handed the Chargers that single
ATS loss this season
way back in week 2. I've been a big Chad Pennington fan since
he entered the league. I just like the guy and applaud him
for speaking
his
mind
to
the
reporters
a
few
weeks ago.
But, I'm starting to wonder if he can win the big game. Funny,
that used to be
the rap
against
another QB in these playoffs
- Peyton Manning. No one seems to be saying anything
negative about Manning these days...
Manning
and the
Colts face the Broncos in a rematch of
week 17, after losing big to the Ponies last week. Sound
familiar? In 2003,
Denver beat Indy 31-17 only to get crushed by the Colts the
following week, 41-10 in one of the most impressive quarterback
showings of recent memory. Will it happen again this weekend?
The Colts are the biggest favorite of the weekend, laying
10 points.
Wunderdog's
Postseason Power Ratings
Here's how I rate the playoff teams based on my statistical
analysis only. These ratings reflect where I think the teams
are now. So, recent better performance outweighs early-season
weakness. Again, this is just from a statistics-standpoint and
doesn't reflect who I think will actually win the games in question
(because many other factors come into play).
1. Indianapolis
2. Pittsburgh
3. New England
4. Philadelphia
5. New York Jets
6. San Diego
7. Denver
8. Minnesota
9. Green Bay
10. Atlanta
11. Seattle
12. St. Louis
Indy
and Pitt are pretty close up at the top. Also New York,
San Diego and Denver are all bunched together. The others
have more "space" between them. It's interesting
to note that
if Buffalo had
made it in, I'd have
had them above every team on this list other than Indy and
Pittsburgh. Suffice it to say, I give Seattle and St. Louis
virtually no chance of hoisting the Lombardi this season
and Atlanta comes in just a tad overrated, lucky or both.
Wunderdog's
NFL Playoffs Philosophy
I
just love the NFL postseason. Although there is obviously
an opportunity to do well during the regular season, the
NFL playoffs provide a much more consistent and predictable
set of circumstances. As opposed to going primarily with
underdogs as I do during the regular season, I spread it
around in the post-season. In fact, I actually lean towards
the favorites in my picks. Why is that you ask? Here are
some of the reasons:
1. THE CREAM RISES TO THE TOP IN THE NFL PLAYOFFS
In
the NFL playoffs, the best teams usually win, and cover
the spread. Identifying the best team is not always easy,
but if you can, you can consistently win in the postseason.
There are a myriad of stats to look at including straight-up
record, core statistics (points, rushing, passing, etc)
and non-core stats (sacks, punting yardage, etc). Look
at yards per play and yards per point. I utilize a system
that weights statistics based on their historical predictive
properties.
2.
THERE IS NO “NEXT WEEK” FOR LOSERS… AKA
THE “RUN UP THE SCORE” SYNDROME
In
the regular season we can spot situations where a favorite
is poised to be upset by a supposedly lowly underdog. In
the regular season, even very strong teams sometimes let
down their guard. In the playoffs, letdowns rarely happen.
This is no surprise. Players and coaches understand that
if they lose this game, they go home. So, the stronger
teams play up to their true ability. The favorites in the
NFL don’t often let up at the end of a game to allow
a dog a late cover. In fact, in the playoffs teams run
up the score. Even if they are up by two touchdowns, the
winning team wants to leave NOTHING to chance and will
take the opportunity to score another two if they can.
The unwritten rule in the NFL (don’t run up the score)
goes out the window in January as opposing coaches and
players don’t frown on having another team pile on.
They would do it if the roles were reversed!
3.
HOME SWEET HOME!
It
is widely recognized that home field advantage in the NFL
is important. Regular season spreads are routinely adjusted
by about 2.5 to 3.5 points in favor of the home team. But
in the playoffs, home field advantage cannot be overstated.
Home squads don’t have to travel after a long brutal
season. The home field energy from the crowd is especially
intense in January. Weather plays a big role (just ask
a warm weather team like Tampa Bay having to travel to
Green Bay or Buffalo in January). And, the better team
usually “earned” home field advantage by playing
awesome football for 16 weeks. The lines-makers typically
cannot adjust the spread enough to account for these factors.
Over the past eight seasons, home teams have covered the
spread nearly 64% of the time! Home underdogs do even better.
Home dogs are very rare (we have seen only 13 of them since
1982) but if you find one – jump on it as they are
11-1-1 against the spread in those games.
4.
STATISTICAL HANDICAPPING INCREASES IN IMPORTANCE
In
the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games worth
of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best teams
step up in January and there are fewer situational letdowns
and surprises. The teams with the advantage in key statistical
areas usually win and cover. Knowing which stats to emphasize
an lead to very successful spread predictions.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
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