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2004 NFL - Semi
Finals Weekend
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 Wildcard
Weekend Recap
Well, what can I say after laying the big goose egg last weekend. I am still
surprised
by
the outcome of some of the games this past weekend. For the first time ever,
an 8-8 team won in the playoffs. And it happened twice! Who said home field advantage
in the playoffs was important? For the first time ever, three
road
teams
came
out on top. If that happens again this weekend, at least one of the two teams
with undefeated home records (Steelers, Patriots) will see their streak end.
Seattle receivers
ensured a quick departure for their team. They dropped/tipped
the first pass of the game
which
led
to
a St. Louis score and
dropped the last
pass
of
the
game, leading to the loss.
I
hand it to the Jets who went into San
Diego and played a
great game. Pennington played like he did in the beginning
of the
season, not the end. He and the Jets
deserved
that
win.
Likewise,
Minnesota deserves a lot of credit, going
into Green Bay and beating the Packers. Warm weather/dome
team playing in
night games on the road in January
only cover the spread about 30% of the time and Minnesota did it in convincing
fashion. Favre is Hall-of-Fame bound but how can you throw 4 picks in a
game
like that? Maybe he should just retire already.
Peyton
Manning and the Indianapolis Colts - WOW! What a performance.
They spanked
the Broncos worse than last
year. This game was over in the first quarter. If they
didn't relax (as expected)
in the third quarter, they could have easily handed
the Broncos their worst postseason
loss ever (remember that 55-10 clubbing in the Super Bowl?). Inexplicably,
the Broncos came out throwing the ball. The obvious
gameplan of controlling the clock
using their great running game against a bad run defense to keep Manning
off the field wasn't so obvious to Mike Shanahan. Everyone
knew Indy was going
to score points. What boggles my mind is why Shanahan
didn't give his team a fighting
chance to keep it close. They barely bootlegged Plummer (where his best)
and simply dropped him back to pass at a rate of about
2-1 vs. the run, even before
the game was out of hand. Unbelievable stupidity in my book. Then, this
week Shanahan lambasted critics who said his team was in
need of major improvement.
He told them they were wrong and that his team was "one player" away
from being able to compete. One player? From what? One player
away from getting beat 55-30
next year? Get real! Shanahan has lost it. He hasn't won a playoff game
in six years and hasn't done jack since Elway left. The
best
move for Denver is to lose
the guy - this year before his stock falls any further.
As
always, you
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Divisional
Playoffs
This weekend I have a theme in my picks. I believe
things will return to "normal" with home teams coming out
on top. I normally tend to like home teams at this round
in the playoffs. It is the week where the home teams have
the single biggest advantage - a week off vs. a team that
played last weekend. Also, let us not forget why these
teams got a bye. They earned it by playing better football
than 28 other teams! They are damn good. Their crowds will
be rocking and it will be very tough for the road teams
this weekend. Layer on top of it that some of these road
teams are average at best. Teams that backed into the playoffs
with very average records are now going into the Lion's
Den and it could get bloody. I do have one upset call,
though in which I like the underdog to go on the road and
come away victorious.
Power
Ratings. Here's how I rate the remaining playoff teams based
on my statistical
analysis only: 1. Indianapolis
2. Pittsburgh
3. New England
4. Philadelphia
5. New York Jets
6. Minnesota
7. Atlanta
8. St. Louis
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
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Pittsburgh
and rookie Ben Roethlisberger have steamrolled through
the regular season. They beat Philadelphia and New
England in back-to-back games and handed the VERY hot
and motivated Buffalo Bills a season-ending loss in
week 17, in a game that meant very little to them.
They have a tremendous opportunity this year, having
locked up home-field advantage. The Steelers are a
throwback club. They have done it with a
punishing running game and great defense. If you have
been a football fan for any length of time, you gotta
love the Steelers style of play, regardless of who
your favorite team is. They got fewer yards per pop
than the Jets and Curtis Martin but they more than
made up for it with a committment to running. Pitt
ran the ball 63% of the time this season, bruising
defenses with Jerome Bettis
and Duce Staley. Big Ben was
only asked to throw the ball 22 times per game.
Similarities
exist
between
this team and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. But, Ben is
no Trent Dilfer. He can help you win a game, as opposed
to just helping you avoid losing it. He completed 66%
of his passes and he always seems to make a big pass
play when his team needs it. He's got one
of the best receiving corps in the league, to complement
their
great running game. He averaged 8.3 yards
per pass attempt - better than Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb,
Chad Pennington and even Marc Bulger. Pitt scored 23
points per game while holding opponents to under 16.
They held opponents
to just 81.2 yards per game on the ground. While the
Jets offense looked great last weekend, I don't expect
that kind of performance this Saturday. In the six
games they played this year against great defenses
of the caliber of Pitt (New England x2, Buffalo x2,
Baltimore and Pittsburgh), the Jets averaged 11.7 points
per game. In three of those games, New York scored
a touchdown or less. I expect a fired up Pittsburgh
team to come out and knock the Jets in the mouth. While
the Jets are playing pretty well, I'll lean towards
the Steelers. One star pick on Pitt to cover the big
number.
How
did St. Louis get here? This team scored 69 points
FEWER than they scored during the regular season.
They lost as many games as they won and their
ATS record was 6-10. They gave up nearly 140
yards per game on the ground and threw the ball
200 more times than they ran it. They lucked
out by drawing Atlanta in this round instead
of Philly. The Rams'
bubble is gonna burst soon and my feeling is
it will
be this weekend against the Falcons and Mike
Vick. Now, I believe strongly that Atlanta has
also been lucky and is overrated. But, they are
a better team than St. Louis, their well rested
and playing at home. They are also playing against
the worst run defense playing this weekend. Atlanta
can run the ball. They average 5.1 yards per
run (best of remaining teams) and finished tops
in the league in eating up yards on the ground.
Mike Vick should be able to post 150 yards against
this
defense
on the ground himself. Throw in Warrick Dunn
and TJ Duckett and you have a recipe for ball
control and game control. I
also believe Vick steps it up in the playoffs,
as
he did against
Green
Bay two years ago, and will have a big game here.
The only advantage whatsoever that St. Louis
has in this game is with their potent passing
offense. Altanta's pass defense isn't very good
but they do get
pressure
on opposing
QBs
(48
sacks). If they can pressure Bulger, put him
on his back a few times and force a few interceptions,
the Falcons run away with this one. A one-star
lean on Atlanta.
   (-9.5) (Check
latest line)
PICK: **EAGLES
Minnesota
impressed last weekend against the Pack. Going into
Lambeau and winning in that fashion is a big feat.
Can they do it again this weekend against a Philly
squad that's entering the postseason with question
marks? No way, Jose. Let's look at how these matchups
differ. Last week Culpepper got to pick on a pass
defense as bad as his own team's. This week will
be something different. Culpepper will be facing
a much better defense. When he faces very good defenses,
he struggles (see week 17 against Washington). The
Eagles, allowing just 16.3 points per game this year,
are gonna bring the heat and force him out of his
comfort
zone.
They
will
sack
him and
bother
him all day long. Minnesota doesn't have the running
game to stay in this one. They also don't have the
defense to handle the Eagles. Sure, they are without
TO but they do have McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Culpepper
got to pick on really bad defenses for most of this
year including Chicago, Houston, New Orleans, Tennessee,
Indy, Green Bay, Detroit and Seattle. No wonder he
put up the numbers he did (too bad his team couldn't
win more than 8 games). Against the only two good
defenses he played against (Philadelphia and Washington),
his team scored an average of 17 points and lost
both SU and ATS. Philly's motivated to advance and
is experienced in this kind of game. Philly in a
two-star pick in a blow out against a team that shouldn't
be playing this weeknd.
Ahhh.
Saved the best for last. How cold is it going
to be in New England this Sunday? I'm serious.
This could be the difference in what to me, presents
the toughest game to call. Right now the prediction
is sunny and high 30s. Unless the weather is
horrible, I expect the Colts to
pull
this
one out. New England has been their nemesis.
The Colts have travelled to New England three
times within the past year and lost all three
times. Peyton Manning has heard all throughout
his career that he can't win the big games and
he can't win on the road, especially outdoors
in cold weather. He has a chance to silence critics
on all fronts this week. And, I think he's in
a zone enough to do it. Manning is 0-6 in Foxboro
in his career. Do the Patriots just have Indianapolis'
number? Maybe. But,
if the
Colts
can just avoid the killer turnovers, I think
they are a better team than the Pats. In last
year's AFC title game, Indianpolis turned the
ball over on ALL four of their first half possessions
(and they still only lost by 10 points). Eariler
this year, the Colts should have beaten New England
but again turned it over three times. I believe
Indianpolis is on a mission and they now have
enough experience to pull this one out. I don't
think they'll be intimidated, despite their recent
performance here. They are playing just too good
to care about who lines up on the other side
of the ball. And, they have the new advantage
of the rules changes implemented primarily as
a result of the title game last year. New England
defensive backs will not be able to play as
physical as they did in that game one year ago.
If you
could give one reason why New England won that
game, their aggressive play against the New England
receivers was it. The fact that they can't do
it this year is HUGE! Pile on top of that the
fact that New England will be without BOTH starting
corners, and you have a recipe for a Manning
feast. The only thing holding me back on this
is that this is New England. They always find
a way to win. They have the best coach in the
league who is the master at game planning. He's
found ways to frustrate and beat Manning time
after time. But, I'm going with my gut here.
Even masterminds fail once in a while. Despite
the home field advantage and the aura that is
New England, I think Peyton is just a runaway
train right now that can't be stopped. He's too
good and too smart. He'll find a way to help
the Colts advance. One star pick on Indianapolis.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for
each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed
to be an even $5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation
that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given
game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent.
There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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