Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
September 1, 2004

Hello NFL Handicapping Fans,

After a good week 2, week 3 was disappointing. Every one of my money-line dogs failed to cover. I guess all of my luck has been going into baseball (on 38-13 run right now). This week I expect some of that to rub off on the football side of things. View my previous picks here.

I like six games this week.

Good luck!

The Wunderdog

Premium Picks
StarCarolina +3 (-110) over Pittsburgh

Last season Carolina was 4-0 in the preseason against the spread while Pittsburgh was 0-4. While the Steelers have already covered a couple of contests this year, Carolina is tracking to a perfect preseason again. John Fox does take the preseaon seriously and wants to win. Mr. Fox is 6-1 as an underdog in the preseason while the Steelers are 2-9 of a straight-up underdog win (they won last week as a 3 point dog). In the preseason, teams off 2 straight wins do very well in the next game. Those off two straight home games do even better. I like the dog with more momentum and the coach that cares. One unit on Carolina.

StarDetroit -5.5 (-110) over Buffalo

Detroit is coming off two straight losses in which they scored just 16 combined points. Two things can happen for the Lions here. They can enter the regular season off three straight losses or they can win at home and end the preseason on a high note. This is a team with shaky confidence yet high hopes. I think they are going to attempt to get some offense going and play well enough to win this game and cover the spread. I think this game means more to the Lions than the Steelers. In the preseason, home teams scoring 17 points or less per game are 70% against the spread. One unit on Detroit to cover.

Premium Picks 

StarBaltimore +3 (-110) over NY Giants

Prime Time...Prime Time...Prime Time. Deion is back and it's going to pump this team up, even in the preseason. Brian Billick is 14-8 ATS in preseaon play and 6-1 as a dog of more than 3 points (keep in mind if spread jumps 1/2 point). The Giants are 2-8 ATS in their last ten preseason finales at home and 2-11 off back-to-back losses in the preseason. One unit on Baltimore. 

StarIndianapolis +3.5 (-110) over Cincinnati

StarIndianapolis straight-up (+155) over Cincinnati

Marvin Lewis is 2-5 in preseaon play. The Bengals have been blown out twice this preseason to the tune of 16-57. They are not that bad a football team. It just goes to show that Lewis doesn't really care about the scoreboard. Indianapolis, we know, can put up points, even with second and third stringers. We've got a winning underdog team here against a coach who doesn't take preseason wins seriously. Oh yeah, did I mention that Tony Dungy is 6-1-1 ATS as a preseason underdog of greater than 3 points? One unit on Indy at +3.5 and one unit for the Colts to win outright.

StarTampa Bay +3 (-110) over Houston

Houston coach Dom Capers doesn't win in the preseaon. His Texans don't win a lot in the regular season, either, but that's another story. Capers and the Texans went 0-4 last year and are 1-2 this season. On the other side, Jon Gruden wins in the preseason. He's one of the best in term of ATS performance in August. Underdogs vs. "bad" coaches like Capers cover the spread nearly two thirds of the time. Also, dogs with winning records on the preseason do very well when facing losing teams. One unit on the Bucs.

StarMiami/New Orleans OVER 35 (-110)

Miami is giving up very little and scoring even less this preseason. The Saints have also been involved in low-scoring games. These facts are keeping this total low. But, I've got a feeling this one is going over. They have to score some points sometime, don't they? Both offenses will be trying to prove to themselves, their fans and the media that they can actually score more than 20 points. Games in which winning home teams are off an ATS win and facing a losing team have gone OVER the total 21 out o 24 times over the last 10 seasons. One unit on the OVER.

NFL Football Resources

Star Ratings Explained
I list a Star rating next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star = least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I give a weighting to each game based on these ratings.

 

1 Star: bet 100 units
2 Stars: bet 200 units
3 Stars: bet 300 units
4 Stars: bet 400 units

View a more detailed explanation of units and how I use and calculate them.

Money-Line / Straight-up Betting Explained
Money-line betting (also called straight-up betting) is an alternative way to bet a football game. Instead of using the point spread, you simply pick which team you think will win the game. If that team wins, you win. If that team loses, you lose. Money-line betting is an effective way to make a lot while risking a little by picking underdogs to win the game outright. For a detailed description of the money line, go here.

About This Newsletter

Complimentary Picks Every Day

This newlsetter is for designed to help sports bettors improve their winning percentage and profit. Each newsletter contains handicapping information, analysis, trends and a complimentary pick. I prominently post all of my picks with results so you can track how well I perform.

About The Wunderdog

Sports Picks and Handicapping Info

Based on over 15 years of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for picking NFL, College Football, NCAA Basketball and Major League Baseball games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not guesses. View more info about The Dog

Manage Your Subscriptions

  • Add or remove yourself from all or selected newsletters (NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, MLB)
  • Change your email preferences (email address, text vs. html format)
  • View your account and order history

Manage Your Subscriptions here by entering your email address.

Pass This Newsletter On to a Friend


If you know someone who would like to receive my newsletter and picks, please direct them here: http://www.freeunderdog.com

Good Luck!


The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guarantees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk.

The Wunderdog