Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
August 25, 2004

Hello NFL Handicapping Fans,

Last week was good to us as we went 6-3 on a star basis. View my previous picks here.

I like nine games this week and I've also included my 2004 NFL FreeAgency Review. Enjoy...

NFL Handicapping Tips
Over the next few weeks, in addition to my picks for the NFL preseason, I'll be sharing a lot of information and editorial with you including:

Good luck!

The Wunderdog

2004 NFL FreeAgency Review
by the Wunderdog

What an amazing off-season in the National Football League. Some of the leagues best and most recognizable players will be putting on new uniforms this August. The Buccaneers dis-banded their Super Bowl defense, losing John Lynch and Warren Sapp to the AFC West. Both of these players are on the downside of their career, but they are winners, and will contribute in a major way to their new teams. The Vikings added Marcus Robinson which makes their WR tandem nearly impossible to defend. Antoine Winfield will bolster their defensive backfield, an area of need for Minnesota. We also saw maybe the biggest deal in the history of the NFL when the Redskins sent Champ Bailey and a 2nd round pick to Denver for ballyhooed running back Clinton Portis. People will pay close attention to the performance of Portis and Tatum Bell, the RB whom Denver drafted with the second pick they acquired from the Redskins. Portis will not have the benefit of a great offensive line in DC, so it should be interesting. Many of the off-season acquisitions will go a long toward determining how their teams perform this season.

Significant Signings and Their New Team

Jeff Garcia, Browns, QB – Will be interesting to see if one the worst offensive lines in the game can protect him.

John Lynch, Broncos, S – See below

Jesse Armstead, Panthers, LB – Armstead is getting old, but he can still play.

Garrison Hearst, Broncos, RB – Great locker room guy. Could get 100-150 carries.

Ian Gold, Buccaneers, LB – If he has recovered from ACL tear, he is a steal for the Bucs.

Marcellus Wiley, Cowboys, DE – Great pickup by Parcells.

Troy Vincent, Bills, CB – Will take over for Winfield.

Antoine Winfield, Vikings, CB – Great, great addition for the Vikings.

Grant Wistrom, Seahawks, DE – Solid get for the Hawks here.

Shawn Springs, Redskins, CB – Will he ever play like he did in college? The Redskins and Dan Snyder’s wallet hope so.

Marcus Robinson, Vikings, WR – Could flourish playing opposite Moss. Injuries have been a problem.

Walt Harris, Redskins, CB – will compete for a starting spot but will probably be the nickel back for the Skins.

Warren Sapp, Raiders, DT – Too old? Come on, he’ll help the Silver and Black’s defense right away.

Robaire Smith, Texans, DT – Bolsters Houston’s defensive line.

Duce Staley, Steelers, RB – This guy can run.

Dez White, Falcons, WR – Has great talent, now he has a quarterback who can get him the ball.

Bertrand Berry, Cardinals, DE – see below

Thomas Jones, Bears, RB – began to show flashes last season of the talent that made him a first round pick by the Cardinals

Eddie George, Cowboys, RB – Parcells did it once with Otis Anderson who was 29 when he gained over 1000 yards for the Giants. Cowboys fans hope this veteren pickup will be enough to get them over the top in the NFC east.

The two most intriguing teams of the off-season were by far the Washington Redskins and Denver Broncos who completely overhauled their rosters in hopes of returning to their glory days.

The Washington Redskins started the off-season off with the announcement that Joe Gibbs would return as head coach. His teams were dominant in the eighties and nineties, with stifling defenses, a grind it out running game, and well timed play action passes. Snyder and Gibbs quickly acquired the running back they so coveted when they sent Champ Bailey to Denver for budding superstar Clinton Portis. The Redskins then added Shawn Springs and Walt Harris to fortify the corner spot left vacant by Bailey, and drafted Sean Taylor out of Miami with their first pick in the draft. While the pick angered Kellen Winslow, Gibbs and company made the right decision. Taylor should become a perennial pro bowl safety in the league. Michael Barrow was added to the linebacking corps and Cornelius Griffin along the defensive line.

The Denver Broncos have been plagued by an average defense since John Elway’s retirement and prior. After acquiring Bailey, the shut down corner the franchise has never had, they added John Lynch who will bring tremendous leadership to the defense. The Broncos also resigned Al Wilson, who is the heart and soul of the entire team. They lost Bertrand Berry, who lead the team in sacks last season, to the Cardinals, but held onto Reggie Hayward who is a similar player. Keep an eye on Luther Ellis, who has not played for two seasons due to injuries. When healthy, he is a terror along the defensive line. Ellis could the steal of the off-season. Denver drafted DJ Williams of Miami who has unlimited potential at outside linebacker, but Denver’s recent first round selections have been anything but exceptional. Williams should change that, and they’ll need him to right away. He should start from the get go in Denver, a team in need of solid linebacker play after the loss of John Mobley and Ian Gold.

Overall a busy offseason for a lot of players and teams. These changes should make for a 2004 in which some players re-invent themselves and help their teams reach new heights.

Premium Picks

StarIndianapolis -4 (-110) over Buffalo

Indianapolis can't be happy with their offensive performance last week as they got trounced at home by the Jets 31-7. Home favorites off a home loss in which they scored 10 or less points bounce back very nicely against the spread in the preseason. It's the preseason but that doesn't mean the offense didn't work extra hard this week and has something to prove. In addition, home favorites who lost big last week also perform well against the spread the following week. One unit on Indy.

StarNY Giants +3 (-110) over NY Jets

StarNY Giants straight-up (+135) over NY Jets

I know, I know - the Jets always win this preseason matchup. The theory goes that the Jets, historically the bottom-dwellers take this game more seriously and beat the Giants when they can because they certainly couldn't beat them in the regular season. Well, times have changed. The Giants won 4 games last year. One could argue the Jets are the better team. Also, the head coach has changed. Tom Coughlin is a tough as nails coach who demands the best from his players no matter when they are playing. After their 31-7 trashing of the Colts, the Jets will be taking it easier this game. In week three of the preseason, dogs facing opponents off back-to-back wins with the last being a blowout win cover nearly nine out of ten times. One unit on NY at +3 and one unit on NY to win outright.

StarTennessee +3.5 (-110) over Dallas
StarTennessee straight-up (+160) over Dallas

Two coaches that like to win in the preseason matchup on Monday Night Football. In weeks 3 and 4 of the preseason, teams off two straight wins when getting points cover the spread nearly three quarters of the time. Anything can happen in the preseason so I like getting points (over a field goal) here with the better, deeper team.

StarSt. Louis -3 (-110) over Washington

Anyone who sat last Monday night's game had to feel embarrased for the Rams. They were awful and the frustration was all over their faces. That sort of game gets players chomping at the bit for next week's game so they can prove to everyone (including themselves) that they aren't that bad. Combine this with the fact that St. Louis is winless in the preseason and has yet to score more than 10 points and we have a situation where the Rams should be trying a little bit harder than their competition. Home teams off two straight losses tend to beat the spread in their next game. One unit on the Rams.

StarMiami/Tampa Bay Over 33

Thirty three? Come on. That's way too low. The public is overreacting to the fact that Tampa Bay scored 6 points and Miami got shut out last week. These are good reasons to bet the over. Just as Dallas put forth an extra offensive effort last week following their week 1 shutout, these teams will as well. They've been focusing alot on offense this week to figure out how to improve from last week's horrible performances. Games in the last couple of weeks of the preseason in which the O/U is under 35 and involve a road team off a loss have gone OVER 19 out of 22 times over the past five seasons. Expect this one to as well. One unit on the over.

Premium Picks 

StarStarArizona straight-up (+135) over Oakland

Those of you who know me know I have a weakness for the home dog. We get a good one here. Norv Turner's defense, at least in the preseason, isn't putting up much of a fight so far. They've surrenderd 33 points to San Francisco and 21 to Dallas, not known as an offensive juggernaut. New Arizona head coach Denny Green has got to be hankerin' for a win right about now. He's lost his first two by an average of over 20 points per game. Doesn't jive too well with the story he's been telling about a new era in Arizona. This is Green's last chance to win over the home crowd and hometown press before the start of the regular season. Arizona's gonna come out fighting in this one. Green, when he was with Minnesota, was 16-4 SU at home in the preseason. Home dogs following two straight ATS losses in the preseason cover the spread 70% of the time in their next game. Also, coaches that are new to their team tend to perform very well in the home underdog role. Two units on Arizona to win the game outright. Lay 200 to win 270 in this one.

StarStarNew England/Carolina Over 37

Everyone's on this game because it was the Super Bowl matchup. Most everyone's picking Carolina to exact revenge. I'm not so sure who will win but I am sure that they'll score more than 37 combined points. There are a boatload of trends that point to an over in this one. Here are a few: Undefeated home teams off two straight wins in the preseason go over 80% of the time. Road teams that scored under a touchdown last game go over 77% of the time. And, the same trend that got us the OVER win last week with Dallas that involves road dogs off poor performances applies again here. This trend is now 13-1 since 1990. Two units on the over in this game.

StarChicago -3 (-110) over New Orleans

New Orleans head coach Jim Haslett doesn't win a lot of preseason games. He uses the preseason for other reasons. He's won one already so I expect him to take it easy this week. New Bears coach Lovie Smith on the other hand, is showing us he does want to win right away. The Bears are 2-0 and home teams with a 75%+ preseason record coming off a win cover the spread about 70% of the time in their next game. One unit on Chicago to keep the dream alive.

StarHouston +5.5 (-110) over Denver

StarHouston straight-up (+190) over Denver

Like this situation a lot. Denver is coming off a big win over division rival and up-and-comer Seattle. They viewed that as a good test and passed it with flying colors. They'll be a bit more relaxed this week, especially knowing that lowly Houston, straight off the heals of a 38-3 spanking at the hands of the Steelers, is strolling into town. Houston's going to ready to put last week's performance behind them and they can do that with an upset win here. Road teams in preseason conference games when playing an opponent off a road win cover the spread about eight of ten times. Houst can surprise in this one and we might just take that to the bank. One unit on Houston +5.5 and one unit on them to win straight-up.

NFL Football Resources

Star Ratings Explained
I list a Star rating next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star = least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I give a weighting to each game based on these ratings.

 

1 Star: bet 100 units
2 Stars: bet 200 units
3 Stars: bet 300 units
4 Stars: bet 400 units

View a more detailed explanation of units and how I use and calculate them.

Money-Line / Straight-up Betting Explained
Money-line betting (also called straight-up betting) is an alternative way to bet a football game. Instead of using the point spread, you simply pick which team you think will win the game. If that team wins, you win. If that team loses, you lose. Money-line betting is an effective way to make a lot while risking a little by picking underdogs to win the game outright. For a detailed description of the money line, go here.

About This Newsletter

Complimentary Picks Every Day

This newlsetter is for designed to help sports bettors improve their winning percentage and profit. Each newsletter contains handicapping information, analysis, trends and a complimentary pick. I prominently post all of my picks with results so you can track how well I perform.

About The Wunderdog

Sports Picks and Handicapping Info

Based on over 15 years of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for picking NFL, College Football, NCAA Basketball and Major League Baseball games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not guesses. View more info about The Dog

Manage Your Subscriptions

  • Add or remove yourself from all or selected newsletters (NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, MLB)
  • Change your email preferences (email address, text vs. html format)
  • View your account and order history

Manage Your Subscriptions here by entering your email address.

Pass This Newsletter On to a Friend


If you know someone who would like to receive my newsletter and picks, please direct them here: http://www.freeunderdog.com

Good Luck!


The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guarantees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk.


The Wunderdog