Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
August 18, 2004

Hello NFL Handicapping Fans,

With week one of the preseason under our belts, some very juicy games are available this week. I have five picks for this weekend and I've also included my 2004 NFL Draft Winners and Losers. Enjoy...

NFL Handicapping Tips
Over the next few weeks, in addition to my picks for the NFL preseason, I'll be sharing a lot of information and editorial with you including:

Good luck!

The Wunderdog

2004 NFL Draft Winners and Losers
by the Wunderdog

 

This season's draft helped some teams much more than others. Here's my thoughts on the biggest winners and losers from the 2004 NFL draft.

The Biggest Winners


Arizona Cardinals
– Larry Fitzgerald is going to be a superstar in the NFL. They now have a formidable receiving corps. Karlos Dansby was a steal in the second round as was DT Darnell Dockett in the third. All three of these players have chances to be very special in the league. And don't forget their "pickup" of Denny Green - a great coach.


Denver Broncos
– Denver filled their needs well on the first day of the draft. DJ Williams will help the linebacking corps right away, and could develop into a top level defender. Tatum Bell is another home run type back, who is thicker than Portis and equally fast. He must demonstrate an ability to run between the tackles better than he did in college. Darius Watts could become a quality number two wideout provided he can stay healthy.


Detroit Lions
– Imagine Roy Williams and Charles Rogers in three years? The Lions are now loaded at the skill positions on offense. Kevin Jones is an upgrade at running back. Teddy Lehman is a quality linebacker who is simply a winner. Now they need to bolster both lines and this team will start making some noise.


San Diego Chargers
– The Chargers scored with their trade that sent Eli Manning’s rights to the Giants. They still added Phil Rivers who may end up being better than Eli. They drafted eleven players overall which bodes well for a team in need of playmakers. Some of the better picks were Michael Turner, Dave Ball and Carlos Joseph of Miami.

 

The Biggest Losers


Kansas City Chiefs
– In a draft loaded with WR’s, the Chiefs failed to add one before the 4th round. We like Sammie Parker but he is very similar to the guys they already have. Really no difference makers at all in the draft for the Chiefs.


New York Giants
– What were they thinking? This team has more needs than Quarterback. They also gave the Chargers their first pick next year, which looks like it will be a good pick. Jessie Palmer may be the starter this season, which is not good news for Giants fans.


Indianapolis Colts
– I like Bob Sanders, but he does not fill a need for the Colts. Really not one selection I really like for the Colts.


Cleveland Browns
– The Browns only had six picks and Kellen Winslow will be a damn good NFL tight end, but Garcia will have a had time throwing to him on his back. They desperately needed O lineman and did not draft one until the fifth round. They also could have used some help at linebacker
.

Premium Picks

StarStarDallas/Oakland OVER 35 (Saturday)

This line is slow artificially low we can step over it. Sure, Dallas was shut out last week. But, Bill Parcells will not let that happen again. I expect the Dallas offense to be pretty productive this week if for no other reason to avoid the wrath of their head coach. Road teams scoring less than a touchdown in the preseason bounce back the following week to go over the total an incredible 78% of the time! Oakland put up 33 points with ease last week. Let us not forget what new head coach Norv Turner is known for - OFFENSE! I have another preseason trend that applies to this game that is 13-1 OVER since 1990. Last year it correctly predicted the Over in the week three matchup between Chicago and Arizona (44 points scored in a game with an O/U of 32). Usually there is one play per season with this trend and we get it here! Expect 40 points to easily be reached in this game. Normally I'd make this a premium play but giving out free today. Two units on the Over.

StarSan Francisco (+3) vs. Chicago (Saturday)

Lovie Smith was able to pull out the win against St. Louis last week but I don't see that happening this weekend. Dennis Erickson tends to forget the word "pre" in preseason. He takes these things seriously. Erickson is 14-8 (64%) ATS including 3-1 last year. San Francisco qualifies for a trend that involves road dogs in conference games playing a team off a win that hits at the rate of about 89% ATS. San Francisco plus the points for a unit in this one.

Premium Picks 

 StarStarNY Giants (+3.5) vs. Carolina (Thursday)

Lots of reasons to love the G-Men in this one. The Panthers will be looking ahead to next week's matchup with their Super Bowl nemesis - the New England Patriots. The Giants, in many ways, have something to prove. Eli Manning gets his first start and will be playing hard to prove he deserves it. Kurt Warner will get second-teamers and have something to prove based on his "demotion." Tom Coughlin is trying to establish the winning way as the new Giants coach and thus also has something to prove. The Giants are 10-2 ATS when playing as an underdog in their second preseason game after scoring 10 or more in their first game (they scored 34 last week). If it weren't preseason, I'd go 3-units on this but we'll keep it at two units on the Giants who should win outright.

StarStarWashington (+2) vs. Miami (Saturday)

The Skins have a bevy of capable quarterbacks. Mark Brunell once again won't see much action but the Redskins don't lose much going to Patrick Ramsey or even third stringer Tim Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck has impressed many in DC and rumors have it he is Gibbs' favorite at this point. Miami has its share of problems and Dave Wannstedt tends not to take the preseason too seriously, having lost more games than he has won. The skins should win this one fairly easily. Two units on Washington.

StarStarNY Jets (+4.5) vs. Indianapolis (Saturday)

Four and a half points is a lot in preseason. Yes, Brooks Bollinger is out for the Jets but so is Dominick Rhodes (questionable) for Indy. Herm Edwards has a solid, winning record in the preseason. He is a task master no matter what month it is. In week 2 of the NFL preseason, underdogs of 4.5+ facing a team playing it's second game cover about 7 out of 10 times. Two units on the Jets.

NFL Football Resources

Star Ratings Explained
I list a Star rating next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star = least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I give a weighting to each game based on these ratings.

 

1 Star: bet 100 units
2 Stars: bet 200 units
3 Stars: bet 300 units
4 Stars: bet 400 units

View a more detailed explanation of units and how I use and calculate them.
For beginners, this page will also lead you to a good description of the money-line.

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This newlsetter is for designed to help sports bettors improve their winning percentage and profit. Each newsletter contains handicapping information, analysis, trends and a free pick. I prominently post all of my picks with results so you can track how well I do each week.

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Based on over 15 years of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for picking NFL, College Football, NCAA Basketball and Major League Baseball games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not guesses. View more info about The Dog

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The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guarantees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk.


The Wunderdog