Can money be made on NFL
preseason picks? Absolutely. Can handicappers approach the preseason
the same way they do in the regular season? Of course not. Should
you bet the NFL preseason? That's up to you. I like to take a
cautious approach in the preseason because honestly, I am less
confident about the available handicapping information. There is
much less info to work with. For example, power ratings don't mean a
thing. Past season performance doesn't mean much. And, there are few
if any past games to look at that provide any true predictive
value.
That being said, there
are some indicators of ATS (against the spread) results in the
preseason. In fact, the same issues that make these games more
difficult to handicap make them more difficult for lines-makers to
peg. Remember, it doesn’t take much of an edge - if we can beat
52.4% with our picks, we make money!
In 2002, I went
4-1-1 ATS and in 2003, I went
9-6 in the preseason by analyzing the
following:
Coaches/Philosophy
Do they take the
preseason seriously or use it for its intended purpose (to test out
players and new schemes)? For example, look at Bill Parcells who is
back in the mix with the Cowboys. His focus on making every play
count, whether in a real game or practice, and his disciplined
approach has resulted in his team covering the spread in roughly two
thirds of the preseason games he has coached. The retired Marv Levy
of Buffalo was just the opposite
and was a great "go-against" preseason coach.
Be careful, however,
about blindly betting "good" coach vs. "poor" coach. Over the past
five years, "good" coaches (50%+ preseason ATS record) were 51% ATS
while "poor" coaches (<50% preseason ATS) were 44% ATS. There is
a difference, but it isn't huge. Further analysis is required to
uncover more predictive trends. For example, put that "poor" coach
in a favorite position and he'll cover only about a third of the
time. Find another trend or two to combine with that and we have a
very good bet.
Finally, “new” NFL
coaches have more to prove and more to play for than experienced
vets who are secure in their jobs. In the 2003 preseason, the 5 head
coaches who were new to their team (Bill Parcells, Marvin Lewis,
Steve Mariucci, Jack Del Rio, Dennis Erickson) went 12-8 (60%)
against-the-spread. In 2002, the four “new” coaches went 11-5 (69%)
ATS.
Team Depth
Backups play more than
starters and some teams' backups are better than other teams'
starters. Look for situations in which starters will be playing
against backups. Teams with veteran starters who are not fighting
for their job will tend to play these starters very little in the
preseason. Look for teams with a couple of good players fighting for
the same job. These players will get extra playing time as coaches
try to determine the starter. Also look for teams with great
backups, especially at quarterback. Some teams’ second or
third-string quarterbacks could start for other teams. When they get
to play against their opponent’s second or third-stringers, they’ll
rack up the yards – and the points.
Game Plan
Coaches often announce
their intentions for upcoming games. Sometimes they are looking to
give a specific player a lot of playing time and other times they
are just looking to get out of there as quickly as possible without
any injuries. Sometimes after several weak preseason performances,
coaches challenge their teams to show something before the regular
season starts and meaningless game becomes
meaningful.
Preseason Historical
Systems and Trends
It is true that some
simple older popular trends (bet on a team in its second preseason
game if its opponent is playing its first) are no longer predictive
(this one is <50% over the past five years). However, there
remain very good predictive trends/systems for the preseason. For
example, dogs of over 7 points do very well, especially when facing
a team off a win.
Keep these items in mind
when handicapping the NFL preseason. I utilize a system that takes
these variables into account on my preseason
picks.
