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Semi-Finals Weekend Recap
2-2 last weekend (3-2 on a star basis) for +40 units. I was right on with Philly and Atlanta and not-so-right with my Pittsburgh and Indy picks. For the first time this postseason, I really like the games on the board and think there's a significant edge in both games.

As always, you can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.

Good luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!

(-4.5) (Check latest line)
PICK: ****EAGLES

This one is simple. And no one is talking about why. I'll talk about it. The reason why this is a very simple pick is this: Philadelphia is a much better team than Atlanta. Not slightly better. They are MUCH better. The Falcons have only three things going for them: their pass rush, Warrick Dunn, and Mike Vick. Vick has helped them win three to four more games than they should have won this season. He gives the Falcons a shot in any game, even here. But, really in most ways, the Falcons are a very mediocre team. Yes, they won by 30 points last week. But that was exactly what should've happened against a St. Louis team that had no business playing last week. Atlanta was matched up against another overrated and lucky team and they beat them as they should have. They ran for nearly a million yards. But so what? St. Louis can't play defense worth a lick. Also, a good portion of the 47 points the Falcons scored came as a result of huge special teams plays. What I'm saying is that last week's performance was more about how bad St. Louis is than how good Atlanta is. Let me count the ways... The Falcons scored just 3 more points than they allowed during the regular season - even with Vick at the helm. They gave up more yards than they gained. Of the four teams remaining, Atlanta ranks worst in points scored, points allowed, SU win %, ATS win %, yards per pass attempt, completion percentage, and yards per attempt given up and rushing TDs allowed. The Falcons only blew one team out this year, beating lowly Oakland by 25 points. On the flip side, they lost a game this year by 27 points and another by 46 points. Contrast that with Philadelphia (when playing starters) who also got blown out once by Pittsburgh (a bit better opponent than Oakland) yet blew out Carolina, Dallas, Washington the Giants and Green Bay. The question here is, can Philly game plan successfully against Mike Vick, Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett? I believe the best answer for Vick is to put a lot pressure on him and play physical against his receivers. These are both Philadelphia strengths. Philadelphia was second in the league in sacks at 47 (right behind Atlanta at 48). While the Eagles sport a top 10 defense overall from a yardage perspective, they do give up a lot of yards on the ground. This is one reason, I believe why this spread is so low. But, the Eagles don't break. They don't give up points. They gave up only 16.3 points per game this season, tied for second best in the league with New England (Pittsburgh is first). It's no accident that three of the four teams playing this weekend are at the top of this list. In contrast, Atlanta comes in ranked 14th. The Falcons are not going to be able to stop McNabb and Brian Dawkins who is establishing himself as one of the most versatile and dangerous running backs in the league. Terrell Owens is out but he won't be needed here as Mitchell, Pinkston and Greg Lewis (a legitimate deep threat) have stepped it up. McNabb should have a big day as Atlanta is 4th WORST in the league in defensive pass completion percentage (63%) and 21st against the pass overall. I expect Atlanta to have success on the ground but struggle via the air on Sunday. If this happens, does Philly have a good shot at covering? Consider this: Over the past three seasons, Philly is 10-3 ATS when they allow 5 or more rushing yards per attempt and 8-1 ATS when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards. This Sunday Atlanta isn't facing the Rams. Philly outscored opponents by 66 points this season and knows how to play defense. Don't let last week's performances fool you. Atlanta played a weak opponent. Philly could have and should have won by three touchdowns but they made a few well-timed mistakes and still rolled easily. For Philly, the 4th time will be a charm. Atlanta is one-dimensional and that's not a good thing at this time of year. Vick is at his best when he doesn't have a lot of pressure to throw (i.e. last weekend). This week should be different. The Eagles should handle Atlanta easily here and cover the spread. Four stars on Philadelphia minus the points. View statistical matchup for this game.

 

(+3) (Check latest line)
PICK: **STEELERS

Like a lot of people, I have gone back and forth on this game all week in my mind. However, I keep coming back to my initial gut feel. Jump on the home underdog. Sure, New England is a magical team coached by the best guy in the business. Tom Brady is money in the playoffs and Belichick is perfect against QBs when facing them for the second time in the same season. But hold on here. Are we really getting the opportunity to get points on a home team in the Conference finals? A team that has won 15 straight? A team that dismantled this week's opponent when they met earlier in the season? A team with the best defense in the league, the best run defense (80 yards per game) and a great running game? Pinch me, please. I've listened to the New England backers and they have some good points (mentioned above). But, some of the reasons I've heard this week just don't hold water in my book. They are based on recent performance or the "aura" of New England. The Steelers are lucky to be here having almost lost to the Jets last week. Yes, they are lucky. But don't confuse lucky with undeserving. Yes, Roethlisberger had a bad game and played like a rookie. But has everyone forgotten about the other 13 games in which he has played? He was facing an excellent defense - one as good as the vaunted Patriots. I personally believe that "scare" was good for the Steelers. They will in no way be feeling cocky. Also, I think they learned a good lesson - don't in any way put the game in Big Ben's hands. They did get away from their winning formula a bit last week and asked Ben to do too much. I believe the coaching staff learned their lesson and they will return this week to what has worked - pounding the ball with Bettis and Staley, asking Roethlisberger to make a few well timed throws and playing better defense than anyone. Let's also look at the positives from last week's Steelers' game. First of all, they won the game - I know it's obvious but let's not overlook it. The Steelers can overcome adversity and win. Second, their defense was AMAZING! The Jets offense scored just three points. The Steelers rushed for 193 yards against a defense that defends the run better than the Pats. And oh, by the way Pitt averaged 154 rushing yards per game this season and New England is 1-7 ATS over the past three seasons when they allow 150+ yards rushing. New England's defense is magical. What they did to Indy last week was nothing short of spectacular. But, Pitt is a very different matchup than was Indianapolis. New England shut down the top offense in the league. It wasn't so much the pressure on Manning as it was their play against the Indianapolis receivers. Even with the rule change, they were aggressive within the five-yard area and played assertive beyond that. So, I don't buy into the argument that Belichick will necessarily confuse Big Ben into submission. I think it's more about the ability of Pittsburgh's receivers to get open. And, I love that matchup. Unlike Indy, Pitt has big tough receivers. Plaxico Burress can out-muscle any of New England's secondary. And Hines Ward is as tough as they come. They will get open by playing as aggressive as New England does. Also, this game is not being played in Foxboro. This is a big deal. On the road, New England surrendered 6 points per game more than at home. Pitt matches up well against New England. They play smashmouth football as well as New England does. This is a very close even matchup and to get 3 points on a home team is a gift. Home underdogs are extremely rare in the NFL playoffs. Since 1982, there have been 13 of them. Those teams have gone 11-1-1 against the spread. Pitt is listening to everyone talk about the Pats this week. "Are they one of the best teams ever?" "Is Brady as good as Montana?" and on and on... The Steelers are getting very little respect here and this is got to be firing them up. Take Pitt here with the points. Two stars on Pittsburgh to cover the number and probably pull the upset.

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