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2004 NFL - Week
9 Monday Night Football Edition
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!NAME_COMMA!
 Sunday
+250 units
A very good (almost great) Sunday for us as Pittsburgh
and Washington both came through in easy fashion. With
under a minute to go, Cleveland had a game-tying TD
attempt picked off in the end-zone
and returned for a touchdown by Baltimore's Ed Reed to
spoil the perfect day. Overall +250 units for the day.
This
rookie's made of steel
How
bout them Steelers? They knocked off undefeated teams
two weeks in a row. This 22-year old rookie is nothing
short of amazing. He's completing over 70% of his passes
and has over twice as many TDs as INTs. He's 6-0 and has
Steeler fans remembering the glory days of the 1970s. The
highest-ever
passer rating for a rookie QB: 96.0 by Dan Marino in 19834.
Big Ben's at 104.7. Will Roethlisberger be the first rookie
QB ever to play in a Super Bowl? At this point in the season,
I've gotta think he's got a good shot. Stay tuned...
The
Indy 500
Last week Indianapolis and Kansas City each put
up over 500 yards in a 45-35 game at Arrowhead. Can it
happen again tonight in Indy? Yes it can. The Indianapolis
Colts
(4-3
SU, 4-2-1 ATS) host the Minnesota Vikings (5-2, 4-3) tonight
and sparks are gonna fly. The Vikings bring forth the #1
passing offense (308 yards per game), the #1 overall offense
(431
yards per game) and the 6th best scoring offense (26.1
points per game). For their part, Indy owns the 2nd ranked
passing offense (303 yards per game), the 2nd ranked overall
offense (414 yards per game) and the top scoring offense
in the league (31.1).
These offenses get to pick on the worst (Indy) and fifth-worst
(Minny) defenses in the league. Should be a high-scoring
affair in which 500+ yards each is well within reach.
Good
luck tonight!COMMA_NAME!!
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   (-7) (Check
latest line)
Game
Preview
This
should be a fun game to watch as the top two offenses in
the league square off against two terrible defenses. The
ABC cameras better be lubed up well because they'll be
doing alot of swiveling and turning to keep up with all
of the footballs flying through the air tonight. The winner
of this game could very well be
the last
team to score. The
absence of Randy Moss is one reason that Minnesota finds
themselves a full touchdown underdog. The line started
at Indianapolis minus 6 but has climbed to a touchdown
on confirmation of Moss not playing a meaningful role,
if he plays at all. Too bad for the Vikings because Moss
plays his best on Monday Night (11 touchdowns and five
100+ yard
games).
The Vikings are trying to avoid a repeat of their collossal
collapse last year at this time (they are 2-7 ATS
in their last nine November games). But, Minnesota's won
five of the last six meetings between these two clubs.
Can they make it six of seven or will Peyton Manning, Marvin
Harrison and Edgerrin James be too much?
Matchup
Which
defense can pull a few rabbits out of their hat and force
a punt or two in this game? The answer to this question
probably tells us who covers this spread. I think it is
more likely
to
be Minnesota. Indianapolis' defense is just awful. The
loss of Moss will hurt the Vikings offense but agains this
defense, I think they'll still have their way. The Colts
defense is allowing a league-worst 419 yards per game
and and over 25 points per game. Only the Raiders, Saints
and
49ers allow more points. The worst part of Indy's defense
is their pass defense, allowing over 300 yards per game.
The best part of Minnesota's potent offense is Culpepper.
Even without Moss, Daunte should have a huge game here,
utilizing Nate Burleson, Marcus Robinson, Kelly Campbell
and his feet. The last time it faced a top offense, this
Colt defense allowed
nearly 600 yards and 45 points last week against the Chiefs.
They
allowed 27 points to Jacksonville the week before that,
for goodness sake! The Jags average just 16 points per
game and haven't scored more than 22 against anyone else
(and that was against
the pourous
KC
defense). Indianapolis can't stop
anyone, never mind a Minnesota offense with Daunte Culpepper
and a healthy Onterrio Smith. Statistically, Indianapolis
is a bit stronger overall based on my analysis, but not
seven points stronger. Here's an interesting stat that
sheds
some light
on which of these two defenses is worse: Opposing quarterbacks
have completed 58.8% of their passes against Minnesota.
Against Indianapolis, QB's have completed 69.7%.
Injuries
Outside
of Moss, Minnesota RB Mewelde Moore is questionable due
to an ankle injury. But, that doesn't really matter as
the
Vikings
have Onterrio Smith and Moe Williams to handle the carries.
No major injuries of note for Indianapolis in this one.
Systems/Trends/Angles
In
addition to Moss being out, another reason this spread
is so high is that Indianapolis is playing at home on Monday
night. But, did you know that the Colts are 1-5 ATS over
the past three seasons when playing a winning team at home?
They
are also
1-6 ATS at home in weeks 5-9 over the same time period. Visiting
underdogs of 7 or less that have allowed lots of points
for a couple of straight games are 3-1 this year, 22-10
over the past three years, and 65% over the past 10 years.
The
Bottom Line
Last
week's big loss to the Giants has a lot of people thinking
the Vikings can't win without Randy Moss. I don't buy it.
There are a couple of reasons why I'm not so sure Indianapolis
deserves
so
much
credit
here,
even
though
they are playing
on Monday Night at home. The first reason is their poor
record at home against good teams as mentioned above. In
addition,
Minnesota
plays
very well on the road.
The Vikings are 2-1 this year, completing 73% of passes,
and putting up
over 500 yards per game away from home. Guess who they
played in the one road loss? Philadelphia. MNF dogs this
year
are
5-2 ATS and I like that trend to continue tonight. Minnesota's
defense is atrocious and will get shredded by Manning and
company
but Indianpolis'
D is
worse. They don't deserve to be a 7 point favorite and
the line move from 6 to 7 is very big here, in my opinion.
As I've mentioned, I think this game could go to the team
that scores last and in that case, I like the 7 points.
*Minnesota
+7 (-110) vs. Indianapolis (risk -55 to win 50)
Check
latest line
Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline
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The
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