!NAME_COMMA!
 A
Tale of Two Sports Bettors
John and Bob each started the season with $1000 - their
bankroll. They both decided
to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn't
agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk
taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $150
per
game
(15% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided
to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). John figured
that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In
week
one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Bob only won
$90. John was very pleased with himself.
Week
2 produced the exact same result. John now had a $1720 bankroll
while Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged
Bob to bet more but Bob wasn't so sure about that strategy.
What if their luck started to turn? John preferred to think
positively. Besides, they were 8-4 - they knew what they
were doing!
But
then came weeks 3 through 6 in which they went 2-4, 1-3 and
0-4, respectively. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon
during a 16-week season.
Guess
what? John was wiped out - completely. He lost his entire
bankroll and a little more he had in "reserve." Bob,
meanwhile lost $455 on the terrible run
but
still
had $725 left over. One of them was out of money, the other
had nearly 3/4ths of this original bankroll left.
What
happened next? The unfortunate three-week run was followed
by a great 3-week run where Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks
of hitting a very respectable
58% on average. Bob ended up the season at over
$1300 - an increase of 30% on his investment.
The
morale of the story is obvious but very few sports bettors
practice it. Don't overextend yourself. It is very tempting
to put down a lot
on each game,
especially
when you are winning. It is boring to put down a little.
But, you need to work within
your bankroll, whatever that is. There will be bad streaks
and good streaks in sports betting. It is inevitable
if you do it for any extended
period of time. Do yourself the favor of allowing
yourself to "stay
in the game." Don't miss out on that late-season run
of luck because you are out of the game too early.
So,
how much you should you lay per game?
It
depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much in total you are
willing to put down over the course of the season). But there
is a simple rule that applies regardless of whether you are a
ten-dollar per game bettor or a one-thousand-dollar per game
bettor: Don't ever bet
more than 10% of your bankroll on any given game. There are no
locks.
Let
me
repeat
that - there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any bet can lose.
Now
that I've layed out the 10% rule, let me add a caveat: You
should almost never lay more than 5% on any single game.
If you are
extremely confident, you can consider laying as much as 10%
but this should be very rare. If you rate games, as I
do,
based
on confidence
level, vary the bets in the 2%-8% range based on the confidence
level.
Can
you make money on this? Absolutely. While it is true that
it won't be as much as you could make with larger bets but
you
will
always
be
in the game! On the flip side, you will lose less if you
catch a bad run. And, if you are winning and on a great roll,
your bets increase
and
you can
win even
more.
How? We are always using a percentage of your remaining bankroll. As your bankroll increases, your bet size increases.
As your bankroll decreases, your bets decrease. A nice side
benefit of this is that, by definition, you can never get
wiped out. It is mathematically impossible to lose your entire
bankroll if you are always betting a small percentage of
it.
The
bottom line: Remember, bet 2% - 8% of your remaining bankroll
on any given game (more often on the low end of that range),
and never more than 10%.
Week
9 Picks
I've got three official picks and a handful of others to consider
this Sunday.
You
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
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