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2004 NFL - Week
8
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!NAME_COMMA!
Last
week was a tough one as we had the first losing week since
week 4. There were a couple of satisfying wins with
Miami (finally) and Arizona, both outright winners as 6 -
6.5 point
underdogs.
The most frustrating loss was defintely with Philadelphia
at -7. They had the push well in hand but committed an ill-timed
roughing the passer penalty on fourth and long on Cleveland's
last drive, allowing the Browns to tie up the game. Overall
it was a losing week, bringing us to 83-73 ATS on a star
basis. You
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Week
8 Picks
We're at the halfway point in the season and things are as
interesting as ever. We'ver got our share of overrated teams
(Seattle), pleasant surprises (San Diego, New York Giants,
Pittsburgh), dissapointments (Green Bay, Carolina and
Dallas), confusing
teams (Denver) and underrated teams (Jacksonville and New England).
I like four games on Sunday -
all underdogs.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!

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On
the surface this looks like an easy Green Bay pick
but that's exactly why we're getting excellent value
on the home dog. Joe
Gibbs has had a couple of weeks to prepare for this
one. Good thing because Mike Sherman, after taking
over the playcalling, has the Green Bay offense clicking.
Offensive coordinator Tom Rossley, recovering from
heart surgey, may take a bit longer to recover than
originally planned (wink, wink). Favre learned this
week that his wife has breast cancer. This follows
news of his brother-in-law's death three weeks ago
and his father's death last year. Does this guy haever
catch a break? No matter - none of this seems to affect
Favre's play.
But, Green Bay's revived offense
will be facing the league's number one defense. The
Redskins have the #1 ranked defense? Yes! They
are allowing just 234 yards per game and have
held their opponents out of the end-zone in half of
their six games this year. Granted, Washington has
played some weaker teams but their defense is good.
Clinton Portis ran for 171 yards against the Bears
two weeks ago and he should have some success against
a somewhat pourous defense. Washington needs this game
and Joe Gibbs knows it. He'll have his team prepared
for this one. Road
favorites that had a great rushing
game last week fail to cover the spread about 70% of
the time in their next outing. Also, home puppies of
3 or less when facing a team that's off two blowout
wins
are 11-0 ATS recently. Bet 55 to win 50 on the
Redskins at +2. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Two
teams going in opposite directions and,
somewhat surprisingly, Bill Parcells hasn't
been able to pull Dallas out of their tailspin.
Last week's loss was, according to the Big
Tuna himself, "the most embarrassing" of
his career. This week he has sounded almost
as if he's given up. He's dejected and doesn't
seem to have a specific plan to fix things.
Expect Roy Williams (the Detroit one) to
have a
big "homecoming" game here.
He grew up in Texas and played for Odessa
High and UT. Dallas' offense is struggling
and will be without Terry Glenn while the
recently acquired Quincy Morgan is questionable
with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys have
scored between 17 and 21
points
in five
of their six games this season so I figure
they are good for about 3-4 touchdowns against
a Lions defense that is ranked 29th overall.
But I actually expect Detroit to score more
than that. Joey Harrington is having his
breakout year, having thrown for 10 touchdowns
already and completing 62.3% of his passes
(67% on the road). The Cowboys' defense is
in shambles after being ranked #1 last year.
They are allowing over 30 points per game
over their last three and a very high completion
percentage (nice matchup for Harrington).
Bet 55 to win 50 on the Lions plus the points.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
**Arizona
+3 (-110) at BUFFALO (Check
latest line)
*Arizona
straight-up (+160) at BUFFALO
Arizona
is 2-4. Why are they so upbeat? They've actually
got a lot to be excited about. They pulled off
a pretty big upset last week. Emitt Smith is playing
like his old self. They've got a winner for a
head coach. And, Anquan Boldin is back to complement
Larry
Fitzgerald, creating one of the best young receiving
tandems in the league. Yes, the sun is shining in
Arizona. And now they get to play one of the league's
worst teams.
I know - the
Cards
are
0-3
on the road
this
season but all three losses were close (two by
3 points and one by a touchdown). Buffalo has won
one
game - against the Dolphins. Need I say more?
They should not be favored here. They are just plain
crappy on offense - ranked 26th in the
league.
Drew Bledsoe is a sitting duck. And,
the Bills are just one of those teams who seem
to have no identity, no momentum and no plan. I like
Arizona to win this one. Bet 110 to win 100 on
Arizona +3 and 50 to 80 on them straight-up. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
**Carolina
+8 (-110) at SEATTLE (Check
latest line)
*Carolina
straight-up (+280) at SEATTLE
Contenders
or Pretenders? You read here last week how
I think Seattle's overrated.
They went 3-0 to confirm what a lot of people
thought they knew going into the season - that
Seattle was this year's Carolina Panthers and
headed
for
the
Super
Bowl. But even a cursory analysis last week
showed that their wins came against horrible
teams
while
their
next two games were against toughter opponents.
The Seahawks lost all three. Then, they lost
to Arizona last week. Now they are laying
8 points today - wow! It's too much. Seattle
is reeling but there's a chance that they'll
still be looking past Carolina a bit. Let me
explain... With Carolina's woes, Seattle could
be chalking this up as a win and looking ahead
to two key
road divisional games that follow. Meanwhile,
Carolina's season is over. The pressure is
off and the
best they can hope for now is to play the spoiler
role. And, to play for pride. How much pain
would dissipate if they could go on the road
and win as an eight point dog after everyone
has written them off? Yes, Seattles the better
team. But I think they're
in a bad
situation here. They are questioning themselves.
Head coach Mike Holmgren said this week, "The
mood stinks right now." Really
bad offensive teams, following multiple games
in
which they
haven't scored many points, tend to bounce
back nicely ATS in their next game. This, I
think, is due to getting good line value which
is definitely the case here. Bet 110 to win
100 on the Panthers +8 and throw down 50 to
win 140 on a surprise straight-up win. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
http://www.freeunderdog.com
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