Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
2004 NFL - Week 8
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Last week was a tough one as we had the first losing week since week 4. There were a couple of satisfying wins with Miami (finally) and Arizona, both outright winners as 6 - 6.5 point underdogs. The most frustrating loss was defintely with Philadelphia at -7. They had the push well in hand but committed an ill-timed roughing the passer penalty on fourth and long on Cleveland's last drive, allowing the Browns to tie up the game. Overall it was a losing week, bringing us to 83-73 ATS on a star basis. You can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.

Week 8 Picks
We're at the halfway point in the season and things are as interesting as ever. We'ver got our share of overrated teams (Seattle), pleasant surprises (San Diego, New York Giants, Pittsburgh), dissapointments (Green Bay, Carolina and Dallas), confusing teams (Denver) and underrated teams (Jacksonville and New England). I like four games on Sunday - all underdogs.

Good luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!

The Wunderdog

Complimentary Picks

*WASHINGTON +2 (-110) vs. Green Bay (Check latest line)

On the surface this looks like an easy Green Bay pick but that's exactly why we're getting excellent value on the home dog. Joe Gibbs has had a couple of weeks to prepare for this one. Good thing because Mike Sherman, after taking over the playcalling, has the Green Bay offense clicking. Offensive coordinator Tom Rossley, recovering from heart surgey, may take a bit longer to recover than originally planned (wink, wink). Favre learned this week that his wife has breast cancer. This follows news of his brother-in-law's death three weeks ago and his father's death last year. Does this guy haever catch a break? No matter - none of this seems to affect Favre's play. But, Green Bay's revived offense will be facing the league's number one defense. The Redskins have the #1 ranked defense? Yes! They are allowing just 234 yards per game and have held their opponents out of the end-zone in half of their six games this year. Granted, Washington has played some weaker teams but their defense is good. Clinton Portis ran for 171 yards against the Bears two weeks ago and he should have some success against a somewhat pourous defense. Washington needs this game and Joe Gibbs knows it. He'll have his team prepared for this one. Road favorites that had a great rushing game last week fail to cover the spread about 70% of the time in their next outing. Also, home puppies of 3 or less when facing a team that's off two blowout wins are 11-0 ATS recently. Bet 55 to win 50 on the Redskins at +2. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

 

*Detroit +3 (-110) at DALLAS (Check latest line)

Two teams going in opposite directions and, somewhat surprisingly, Bill Parcells hasn't been able to pull Dallas out of their tailspin. Last week's loss was, according to the Big Tuna himself, "the most embarrassing" of his career. This week he has sounded almost as if he's given up. He's dejected and doesn't seem to have a specific plan to fix things. Expect Roy Williams (the Detroit one) to have a big "homecoming" game here. He grew up in Texas and played for Odessa High and UT. Dallas' offense is struggling and will be without Terry Glenn while the recently acquired Quincy Morgan is questionable with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys have scored between 17 and 21 points in five of their six games this season so I figure they are good for about 3-4 touchdowns against a Lions defense that is ranked 29th overall. But I actually expect Detroit to score more than that. Joey Harrington is having his breakout year, having thrown for 10 touchdowns already and completing 62.3% of his passes (67% on the road). The Cowboys' defense is in shambles after being ranked #1 last year. They are allowing over 30 points per game over their last three and a very high completion percentage (nice matchup for Harrington). Bet 55 to win 50 on the Lions plus the points. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

 

**Arizona +3 (-110) at BUFFALO (Check latest line)
*Arizona straight-up (+160) at BUFFALO

Arizona is 2-4. Why are they so upbeat? They've actually got a lot to be excited about. They pulled off a pretty big upset last week. Emitt Smith is playing like his old self. They've got a winner for a head coach. And, Anquan Boldin is back to complement Larry Fitzgerald, creating one of the best young receiving tandems in the league. Yes, the sun is shining in Arizona. And now they get to play one of the league's worst teams. I know - the Cards are 0-3 on the road this season but all three losses were close (two by 3 points and one by a touchdown). Buffalo has won one game - against the Dolphins. Need I say more? They should not be favored here. They are just plain crappy on offense - ranked 26th in the league. Drew Bledsoe is a sitting duck. And, the Bills are just one of those teams who seem to have no identity, no momentum and no plan. I like Arizona to win this one. Bet 110 to win 100 on Arizona +3 and 50 to 80 on them straight-up. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)
 
**Carolina +8 (-110) at SEATTLE (Check latest line)
*Carolina straight-up (+280) at SEATTLE

Contenders or Pretenders? You read here last week how I think Seattle's overrated. They went 3-0 to confirm what a lot of people thought they knew going into the season - that Seattle was this year's Carolina Panthers and headed for the Super Bowl. But even a cursory analysis last week showed that their wins came against horrible teams while their next two games were against toughter opponents. The Seahawks lost all three. Then, they lost to Arizona last week. Now they are laying 8 points today - wow! It's too much. Seattle is reeling but there's a chance that they'll still be looking past Carolina a bit. Let me explain... With Carolina's woes, Seattle could be chalking this up as a win and looking ahead to two key road divisional games that follow. Meanwhile, Carolina's season is over. The pressure is off and the best they can hope for now is to play the spoiler role. And, to play for pride. How much pain would dissipate if they could go on the road and win as an eight point dog after everyone has written them off? Yes, Seattles the better team. But I think they're in a bad situation here. They are questioning themselves. Head coach Mike Holmgren said this week, "The mood stinks right now." Really bad offensive teams, following multiple games in which they haven't scored many points, tend to bounce back nicely ATS in their next game. This, I think, is due to getting good line value which is definitely the case here. Bet 110 to win 100 on the Panthers +8 and throw down 50 to win 140 on a surprise straight-up win. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

Resources

NFL Football Resources

Six Reasons why Underdogs are the Smart Bet in the NFL
Up-to-Date NFL ATS Record
NFL Game-of-the-Week Preview
Live NFL Football Lines

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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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