I was on the Jaguars as an underdog last week. But that was against the Chiefs, not the Colts. The Colts handed the Jags their first loss of the season three weeks ago, winning in Jacksonville by a touchdown. Manning was 20 for 29 and two touchdowns. Coming off an extra week of preparation, he'll probably be even better. The Colt's offense is just plain unstoppable. They are averaging nearly 32 points per game and own the second best offense in the league. Their defense is weak but that shouldn't be a big problem against a Jags offense that is averaging just 15.8 points per game. Teams with a winning record coming off an upset win as a home underdog fail to cover the spread the following week 69% of the time. Bet 110 on Indy to win 100. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

I know, I know. I keep going with Miami and they keep losing. But I admit I like them again this week. They are like some addicting drug to me. I know they are bad but they seem to represent very good value each week, this one included. They will win one of these weeks. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 6 or more consecutive losses are 33-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. St. Louis is in a letdown situation here as they are riding high and now have to try to "stay up" against the league's only winless team. When teams turn things around as dramatically as the Rams have, I always take a peek at turnovers. Why? Because I want to know how much of the turnaround is skill vs. luck. Well, low and behold, the Rams went from two takeaways in their first three games (1-2 SU) to eight in their last three games (3-0 SU). The Dolphins defense (3rd best overall) will have success against St. Louis. Miami owns the best pass defense in the league, allowing a stingy 127 yards per game through the air. That's a nice matchup against the Rams. With their speedy receivers slowed by the grass field in Miami, the Rams passing game could struggle in this one. I've got tons of situational trends pointing Miami's way including one that involves very poor teams that have failed to cover the spread in most of their recent games that is 37-8 ATS. Backing the Fish again this week. Bet 55 to win 50 on Miami at +6 and 50 to win 115 on the Dolphins to win outright. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

Daunte is daunting. Tennessee is weak. Need I say more? As I pointed out last week, Tennessee is playing terrible football. Outside of their two wins (one against lowly Miami and the other an anomaly against Green Bay), Tennessee is 0-4. In those four games, they have been outscored by an average of 12 points. Minnesota's as good as, or better than, three of the four teams that spanked Tennessee (Houston, San Diego and Jacksonville). The Titans' 26th ranked passing defense is going to get absolutely torched by Culpepper-to-Moss (yes, I expect him to play) and the league's most prolific offense. Bet 110 to win 100 on Minnesota minus the points. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

This is a big test for the Jets. And I think they will fail. The Jets are 5-0 but they are no match for the Patriots. Who have the Jets played? Let's see. Cincinnati (1-4), San Diego (3-3), Miami (0-6), Buffalo (1-4), and San Francisco (1-5). Combined, that's 6-21 or 22%. Why are people excited about the Jets given that level of competition? This New England team on the other hand is staking a claim as one of the best of all time. Laying just 6 points at home is what I call value. The Pats are scoring 27 points per game and they have faced three of the best defenses in the league. Against these three, Buffalo, Miami and Seattle, they have scored 31, 24 and 30, respectively. This is a major mismatch and we're lucky to be laying less than a TD. Bet 110 to win 100 on New England at -6. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

Oakland is in deep doodoo. Kerry Collins has been horrific as Rich Gannon's replacement. I feel bad for the Raiders as they actually looked good before Gannon went down. But Collins has amassed a QB rating of 55.8 by throwing two touchdowns to eight interceptions. Their not much light at the end of this tunnel for the Raiders as Gannon's career is probably over and Marques T. is waiting in the wings. With Collins struggling, the Raiders also have a weak running game amassing just over 90 yards per game on the ground. Their rushing defense is just as bad, allowing 188 yards per game to opposing rushers. These are the reasons I like New Orleans in this one. Their problem has definitely been defense which is ranked last in the league and has been torched for 25+ points four times this season. But in this game they are facing a team just as bad as they are, and they are getting points. New Orleans qualifies for a trend involving two teams with poor rushing offenses and poor rushing defenses that favors the underdog. This trend is 28-7 ATS. Bet 110 to win 100 on the Saints +3. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

Tom Coughlin has this Giants team whipped into shape and they are actually - shall I say it - good. The G-Men have won four in a row and are poised to make it five after a week of rest. Tiki Barber has come out of no-where to become one of the top producing running backs in the league. And, it seems he has found a way to hold on to the football. Kurt Warner has found new life as well. Detroit is much improved over last year, but that isn't saying much. Somehow the Lions have put together a winning record but it it's hard to understand how. Detroit is ranked dead last in league offense overall and 31st in rushing and 31st in passing. They also own the 3rd worst defense. The Giants should be laying over a touchdown in this one so we'll grab them here at -6.5. Bet 110 to win 100 on the Giants at -6.5. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

Carolina's in a downward spiral while San Diego's been a pleasent surprise. LaDanian Tomlinson's always been a star but now Drew Brees is finally playing like he was supposed to from the start. The Chargers added the missing piece this week when they acquired Pro Bowler Keenan McCardell from the Bucs. This offense can be downright scary if he steps in and plays well. Much of Carolina's woes can be traced to key injuries to Steve Smith and Stephen Davis. This Panthers offense is nothing without them. Davis returned to action last week after three weeks off due to a knee injury but it looks like he'll be sidelined again this week. Without him, this Panthers team will not be able to move the ball on the ground against the league's second best run defense. San Diego is 4-1 ATS this year as the oddsmakers and public have been slow to catch on. Visiting underdogs when facing a losing team that has lost two straight on the road fair very well (68% ATS). I think San Diego's the better team right now and they should keep this one close. Bet 110 to win 100 on the Chargers at +3. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)