!NAME_COMMA!
 Weekend
starts off on the right foot
Well, the football "weekend" started off nicely tonight
with tonight's pick winning easily as Louisville went into
Miami and earned some major respect by taking the Hurricanes
to the wire. I you aren't getting my college football newsletter
and would like to, access your subscription page to add it.
NFL
picks last weekend hit 64%
We had a good week at 7-4 on a star basis with the NFL ATS
(against-the-spread) picks. The money-line picks however continued
to underperform. Below I'll share some more thoughts to consider
when spreading your bets across spread picks and money-line
picks.
You
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Bet
with the spread or on the MoneyLine?
This week one of my subscribers, David K. asked, "Is
there any recommendation you have on playing the money line
v. the spread?" It's a great question. So far this year
my ATS picks have been quite profitable while the money-line
picks have not. If we knew this trend was to continue, you'd
be wise to strictly bet my picks against-the-spread and avoid
the money-line all together. But of course, we do not know
exactly will happen in the future. If we look at my past performance,
you'd actually come to the exact opposite conclusion:
Wunderdog
2001 - 2003 NFL Record
ATS: 134-107
for +1,630 units
ML: 66-85 for +4,105 units
Net: +5,305 units
As
you can see, over the past three years I have picked underdog
winners at a rate of 43%. Since they are underdogs, even
at this win percentage, we have shown a huge profit (average
profit of 27 units per pick).
Based
on the performance over the past three years, you would have
been better off putting more of your bets into the money-line
selections. So, we are left with a tough question: what will
happen the rest of this year? Will the ATS picks outperform
the money-line picks or vice versa? Of course we do not know.
In
addition to the performance over the past three years, here's
why I am not ready to abandon the money-line... The nice
thing about the underdog money-line picks is that you don't
need a very big winning percentage to get into the black.
One or two big money-line winners can erase losses quickly.
In week two of this season, for example, I picked Chicago
to beat Green Bay straight up as an 8.5 point dog. That one
win was worth +320 units for a 100 unit bet. Just a few more
of those and we'll be back in the black on the money-line
picks.
This
year my underdog picks have only won 25% of the time so far.
How much do the underdogs need to win to make the money-line
profitable? It all depends on how big of an underdog they
are. Basically the break-even point ranges from about 20%
for a big underdog at a money-line of +400 to about 48% for
a smaller underdog at +120. This chart shows
you exactly what percentage you need to make a profit.
Whatever
you decide, I'll provide my recommendations with each pick.
Need
a new online sportsbook? Check out BetOnline.com.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
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