!NAME_COMMA!

70% Against-the-Spread on a star-basis yesterday
Sunday started off less than stellar but finished great. After Houston gave up a TD in overtime to miss the cover, I thought I might be in for one of those "bad luck" days. But, in the late games, the picks went 4-0 ATS. Both of the 2-star picks (Tampa Bay and San Diego) won easily. Overall my picks for the day were 7-3 ATS (70%) on a star basis. The money-line picks under-performed, but we ended up with a profitable day overall, making it four winning weeks out of five on the regular season. You can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.

Tonight's Monday Night Football Matchup
So far I've been perfect on my Monday Night calls. Hopefully that streak continues again this week as the Titans travel to Green Bay to face the Packers. Hard to believe both of these clubs are 1-3. The Pack opened, and have remained, as a field-goal favorite. The odds-makers have made this game a virtual toss-up, giving Green-Bay the obligatory 3-point home-field nod. Both quarterbacks are banged up but who cares? Steve McNair has been hurt since the 60's and Favre can fight through any adversity - emotional or physical.

Good luck tonight!COMMA_NAME!!

Game Preview

Both of these teams need a win badly. It's somewhat surprising that the Packers are laying just 3 points with Favre, Pro Bowler Ahman Green and Green Bay at Lambeau field under the Monday Night spotlight. I am a bit worried about the fact that Favre is hurt and his normal backup, Doug Pederson is out with a broken hand. Craig Nall and J.T. O'Sullivan are waiting in the wings but their experience is in NFL Europe. Not good. I am also not looking forward to seeing Chris Brown run against this Packers defense that got torched by Tiki Barber last week. But, the Pack haven't lost two home games since 1998 until this season. Only five weeks into the season, will they make it three? I don't think so. This is a tough call and could easily be decided by one play. Turnovers could be key.

Matchup

Tennessee led the league last year in rushing defense, giving up just over 80 yards per game. What happened? They are now allowing a league-worst 5.5 per carry and over 130 yards per game. Granted, Tennesse has faced some of the league's best backs so far in Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, and LaDanian Tomlinson. I still like Ahman Green to have success tonight. Green is one of the league's elite. But even more importantly, Green Bay's passing game is excelling, ranked 8th in the league. Despite the success of Chris Brown, Tennessee's offense has been pretty anemic, averaging under 16 points per game. While they have played two excellent defenses in Miami and Jacksonville, they have also played two of the league's worst in San Diego and Indianapolis (worst defense in the league) and only managed 17 points in each of those games.

Injuries

Steve McNair will be back for the Titans and Favre should play. Green Bay is without center Mike Flanagan and NT Grady Jackson. Tennessee is without three linebackers, tight-end Erron Kinney, and left guard Zach Piller.

Systems/Trends/Angles

Green Bay is 5-1 in their last six on Monday Night while Tennessee is 1-5 in their last six Monday Night road games. Green Bay is 8-2 at home when the line is +3 to -3. Tennesee has lost 3 games without being able to blame turnovers. Road teams at +3 to -3 that have committed 1 or less turnovers per game, following a game in which they forced 1 or less turnovers are an amazing 3-24 (14%) ATS over the past twenty years. Monday Night home teams off a home loss when facing a team that also lost last week cover the spread about 80% of time time.

The Bottom Line

If Ahman Green gets enough carries to put him over 100 yards, Green Bay controls this game and wins and covers. Tennessee is allowing 131 yards per game and Green Bay is rushing for over 115 per contest. I think he gets his hundred and more tonight. Get this: in games in which the Packers rush for 125 to 150 yards, they are 18-7 ATS. Both teams need this game but Green Bay has the advantage of home field on Monday night with a crowd that knows they need to support their beloved Packers. This is a matchup of two great quarterbacks but again I give the edge to the gritty Favre. This should be a good close game but I give the small overall edge to Green Bay. One unit on the Pack to win by over a field goal.

*Green Bay -3 (-110) vs. Tennesee (risk -110 to win 100)

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Good Luck!