*Buffalo +6.5 (-110) at NY JETS (Check latest line)
*Buffalo straight-up (+240) at NY JETS

0-3 visits 3-0. The Jets are off to a rare fast start. I'm a believer in Pennington and Herm Edwards but I think Buffalo is (over) due. They really should have covered and possibly won last week vs. a very good New England team. The game was much closer than the final score indicated as Buffalo blew a game-tying drive on a Bledsoe fumble that New England returned for a touchdown. The Jet's haven't played much in terms of competition (Cincinnati, San Diego and Miami). These three teams are a combined 3-8 SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Buffalo has played Jacksonville, Oakland and New England (a combined 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS). Buffalo's defense is top 10. Medium-sized underdogs scoring 14 or less per game after scoring 17 or less three games in a row cover the spread about 7 out of 10 times. Also after week 4, big home dogs that haven't won much on the season bite back hard as they scrap to get their first W. One unit on Buffalo +6.5 and one on them to steal the game straight up. (Bet game @ BoDog)

*Carolina +5.5 (-110) at DENVER (Check latest line)
*Carolina straight-up (+200) at DENVER

On paper these two teams look similar. We have the Broncos with the 2nd ranked defense and 14th ranked offense and the Panthers with the 7th-ranked defense and 13th ranked offense. Surprisingly, both teams have been more prolific through through the air. Quentin Griffin, after a strong game one start, has been a dissapointment to the Broncos. Carolina has been without super star Stephen Davis for most of the season but they expect him back this weekend. I think this is the difference in this game. With Stephen Davis in the backfield, Carolina will have more success offensively and their defensive front four remain one of the best in the league. That, combined with Denver's struggling runnning game will put the responsibility for scoring soley on the shoulders of Jake Plummer which spells disaster for Denver. In week 5 games, teams with one win vs. teams with 3 wins coming off a win cover the spread 86% of the time. I like Carolina to keep it close and possibly win. One unit on the Panthers +5.5 and one unit on them to win. (Bet game @ BoDog)

*Cleveland +6 (-110) at PITTSBURGH (Check latest line)
*Cleveland straight-up (+220) at PITTSBURGH

Rookie Ben Roethlisberger (did I spell that right?) has been a pleasent surprise, going 2-0 since replacing Tommy Maddox. That's part of the reason Cleveland is getting nearly a touchdown in this matchup. But who has he played? For that matter, who have the Steelers played all season? Their three victories have come against teams with a combined record of 3-9. In the one game vs. a winning team, the Steelers lost by 17 points to Baltimore, allowing 30 points to a low-scoring offense. Also, part of Pitt's success has been due to good fortune. They've already forced 11 turnovers - nearly half as many as they forced all last year! That kind of luck doesn't continue forever. In October games, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points cover the spread 7 out of ten times when facing a team off three games in which they covered two. I like Cleveland to scrap in this game and keep it close. (Bet game @ BoDog)

*HOUSTON +4 (-110) vs. Minnesota (Check latest line)
*HOUSTON straight-up (170) vs. Minnesota

The Texans are on their first winning streak in team history. They have proven they can win in this league and they believe. They now get Minnesota at home. Will this team and home crowd be fired up on Sunday? You bet! Minnesota enters this game without it's top two running backs, Michael Bennett and Onterio Smith. Moe Williams may not play and if he does, it won't be full-time. They also come in with one of the worst defenses in the league, surrendering 22 points per game. Underdogs fare very well in this league when facing teams with poor passing defenses. Also, medium-sized home underdogs with good offenses also do well. Houston qualifies for a trend related to that here that is 23-5 against the spread. One unit on Houston +4 and one unit on them to win. (Bet game @ BoDog)

*Miami +13 (-110) at NEW ENGLAND (Check latest line)
*Miami straight-up (+700) at NEW ENGLAND

I know, I catch slack for backing the Dolphins just about every week. But, I continue to view them as a good value. They are 1-3 ATS but could a few of their losses have been pretty close. The Pats are on the verge of breaking the consecutive-win streak held by five other teams. I've always viewed the Pats as susceptible to an upset loss, however. One reason is that they have not been dominating in their run. They've won their 18 games by an average of 8.9 points per game which is a full 50% lower than the what the other five teams averaged. The Pats find ways to win but often it is a key defensive play that turns a loss into a win. One of these days the ball will bounce the other way and New Enlgand will let one slip away. Miami will be scrapping in this one as no one wants to go 0-4. As bad as their offense is, NFL player, more than those in any other sport, have a ton of pride. They have gone through enough this season and should be pissed off. They had their best game offensively of the season last week and had a chance to win before blowing it. This team also has had more than its fair share of bad luck. They lead the league in turnovers (14). If/when they get a few bounces going their way, they are going to surprise someone in an upset. The Dolphins still own the league's third best defense which gives them a chance in any game. underdogs who struggle offensively for several games in a row typically perform well against the spread as the public starts fading them hard. In this game, we also have a public favorite in New England. These factors have pushed this line a lot higher than it should be. I'll go with the Dolphins again here. (Bet game @ BoDog)

**San Diego +3 (-110) vs. Jacksonville (Check latest line)

I've been on Jacksonville quite a bit this season but I like the Chargers quite a bit here. They have been a pleasent surprise at 2-1-1 ATS. Drew Brees has responded to the pressure of potentially losing his job and has been nothing less than outstanding. Combine that with the regular excellence of LaDanian Tomlinson and you have a force on the offensive side of the ball. The Chargers will need great offensive play this week against one of the best defenses in the league. However, as we have seen, Jacksonville can't score much. I was surprised that they put up only 17 points last week against a horrible Indy defense. That fact is one of the reasons I like San Diego as a dog in this one. San Diego's defensive strength is against the run where they are giving up just 85 yards per game and rank third in the league. This is a good matchup for them as they should have some success in stopping Fred Taylor. Jacksonville showed last week that they won't necessarily have success against a poor passing defense as evidenced by a mere 17 points against the worst pass defense in the league last week. In non-divisional games, underdogs facinga team off it's first loss of the season are perfect over the last five seasons. Two units on San Diego to keep this one closer than a field goal. (Bet game @ BoDog)

*St. Louis +7 (-110) at SEATTLE (Check latest line)
*St. Louis straight-up (+245) at SEATTLE

You know I'm not a huge fan of St. Louis - primarily due to Mike Martz. But as I said last week, when he runs Marshall, they win. He chose to run Marshall again last week and they won and covered. The same thing happened in week one (average rushing yards in those two games: 175). In the other two games in between, he didn't run Faulk and they lost and failed to cover. Has he figured out the formula? Let's hope so this weekend. I think he has. Seattle has thrived this year on takeaways (10) and keeping opponents off the scoreboard. They have given up just 13 points in three games! For anyone to have a shot at beating them, they better have a good offense. The Rams certainly qualify. I don't see them struggling in this one. We are getting great value here at a full touchdown due to Seattle's great play so far combined with everyone's preseason prediction that this would be their year. Perfect time for a letdown here. I like the league's sixth-best offense (and a very balanced one) to keep this one closer than most people think. I don't think Seattle's defense has really been tested yet. (Bet game @ BoDog)

**Tampa Bay +3 (-110) at NEW ORLEANS (Check latest line)

Chris Simms finally gets the startging call for Tampa Bay. The Bucs are struggling big-time but I don't think they are as bad as their record indicates. Their losses have been close (average of less than 6 points). Their defense is still solid (ranked 6th) and on Sunday they get a very pourous New Orleans defense that ranks second-to-last in the league. What Tampa needs is a kick in the ass / fresh start and Simms can provide that spark. Playing on the road will actually be a benefit right now for the Bucs. Visiting dogs of less than 13.5 with a terrible record when playing a turf-team with a sub-.500 record cover the spread nearly three quarters of the time. Tampa keeps it close here. (Bet game @ BoDog)