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   (-6) (Check
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The
Chiefs are on the ropes. After having some preseason prognosticators
put them in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are an ugly 0-3.
Meanwhile, the Ravens, after losing to Cleveland as a week
one favorite, have won two-straight in convincing fashion.
The Ravens defense is reminding many of 2000 as they have
allowed just 22 combined points in their last two games.
Speaking of defense, it is apparent that the addition of
defensive coordinator Guther Cunningham hasn't brought
any to Kansas City yet. They are giving up nearly 29 points
per game and are ranked 29th against the run and 23rd overall.
But, you could argue Kansas City has played some pretty
good teams in Denver, Carolina and the surprising Houston
Texans. Baltimore's offense hasn't impressed but could
explode against the Chiefs. Will the Chiefs step up and
get their first win or will Baltimore push them to 0-4
and kill their hopes for the playoffs?
Matchup
On
the surface it would appear that the Ravens offense will
have its way against the Chiefs. On the ground that would
seem to be the case. The Baltimore passing game, however,
is terrible - ranked second-worst in the league. Kyle Boller
is still struggling, averaging an anemic 138 yards per
game passing. The running games are about equal here with
both teams averaging 5.1 yards per carry. If Kansas City
can keep Jamal Lewis somewhat contained, the Chiefs should
be able to hold Baltimore under 25 points. I think Kansas
City can put up more than that. They are averaging 21 per
game but they have played very good defenses in Denver,
Carolina and Houston. Through three weeks, all three of
these opponents are ranked higher in defense than Baltimore
and all are in the top half of the league with Carolina
being ranked #7 and Denver ranked #1.
Injuries
These
two teams feature two of the best (if not the two best)
tight-ends in the league. Kansas City's Tony Gonzales is
the undisputed #1 player at that position. Young Todd Heap
is definitely one of the league's best but he is expected
to miss this game with an ankle injury. This doesn't bode
well for an already struggling Baltimore pass offense.
Deion Sanders is doubtful for the game.
Systems/Trends/Angles
Kansas
City is 1-5 ATS following a loss by 3 or less. Baltimore
is 6-1 ATS at home after allowing 9 points or less. Kansas
City is 6-1 in their last seven October games. When teams
that are really struggling face winning teams from week
four on and they are large home underdogs, they have covered
the spread 67% of the time over the past four years. Underdogs
off a loss by 6 or less when facing a team off two big
wins are 54-22 (71%) against the spread. Finally, home
favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after covering 2 of 3 in
October games are 24-57 (30%) ATS. This happens because
teams that are on a roll early in the season get the public
money and push the line out of whack.
The
Bottom Line
Everyone
is writing the Chiefs off. At 0-3 they can either give
up or come out fighting. I think it will be the latter.
They know this and have something to prove. They also have
a season to save. I knew that it would take time for Cunningham's
changes to start working. With three games under their
belt, maybe this is the week. This line started at 4.5
and the public has pushed it to 6 which is too high. Kansas
City keeps it close and might come away with the win. One
unit on KC at +6 and a half a unit on them to win the game
straight-up.
*Kansas
City +6 (-110) vs. Baltimore (risk -110 to win 100)
*Kansas
City straight-up (+220) vs. Baltimore (risk 50 to win
110)
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