*Houston +2 (-110) vs. Oakland (Check latest line | Bet game @ BoDog)
*Houston straight-up (+120) vs. Oakland

Oakland hasn't won on the road in two years and they now have to go to their bench at QB just when Rich Gannon was reminding Raider fans of 2002. We're getting a nice line here based on Oakland's surprisingly good start. But Houston, especially at home, is a good squad and to get points is a gift. The Texans are 5-1 as a home dog of 9 points or less. There's a handful of great 70%+ trends in this one that have to do with home underdogs off a win vs. an opponent off a home win as a favorite. Also, home dogs off a small road win when facing an opponent off a big home win are an eye-popping 26-6 ATS (including 1-0 this year when Jacksonville beat Denver as a home dog in week 2). Houston is as good as Oakland and could easily be laying 2-3 points. One unit on the Texans at +2 and one unit on them to win straight-up.

**Buffalo +5.5 (-110) vs. New England (Check latest line | Bet game @ BoDog)
**Buffalo straight-up (+220) vs. New England

New England is a public favorite for obvious reasons. They have won two straight Super Bowls, won an incredible 17 straight and this week they are well rested and off a bye. Buffalo is looking no better than they did last year and most everyone has written off Drew Bledsoe as a has-been. But hold on. Guess where one of the Patriots' two losses was last season? You guessed it. Upstate New York. New England is within reach of the coveted NFL record 18-straight wins (shared by five teams). It is always about this time that teams get overconfident and fall on their face. New England's two wins this season haven't impressed. They pulled out a squeaker against Indianapolis in week 1 in which they gave up huge chunks of yardage on the ground and they won a sloppily played game against the Arizona Cardinals in week 2. Buffalo's defense can keep them in this one. It's ranked fourth in the league and has held each of its two opponents under two touchdowns. One of those teams, Oakland, has scored an average of 26 vs. other opponents. This defense is tough. Buffalo needs this game more and has had an extra week to prepare. Winless dogs off a bye cover the spread nearly 80% of the time. Medium-to-large dogs following two games in which their offense was anemic cover about three quarters of the time. The bottom line is this: on the surface, everything seems to point to an easy win for New England here and I can hear Joe Bettor saying "I can't believe this spread is only 5.5. I'd lay 10 points with New England on this one!" Yes, we're going against the obvious and taking Buffalo for two units to both cover the spread and win outright.

*Chicago +9 (-110) vs. Philadelphia (Check latest line | Bet game @ BoDog)
*Chicago straight-up (+320) vs. Philadelphia

Beautiful set-up here. The Eagles can't be beat, right? Donovan is the best QB in the league again, right? Donovan to T.O. is unstoppable! Boy, short memory. Didn't this Bears team upset Green Bay as a 9 point dog a couple of weeks ago? Yeah, I thought they did. Philly will be taking this game lightly while the Bears know they have a shot in any game. Yes, Rex Grossman is out and Jonathan Quinn (who?) is in. But this team isn't about Grossman. It's about Thomas Jones and the 4th best running game in the league. This pick is less about the statistical strengths and weaknesses of these teams and more about the situation. Home underdogs of 7+ have historically covered about 62% of the time but have done so at a 70% clip over the past three years. Also, dogs off a fairly close loss facing a team off two big wins cover the spread 71% of the time. We were on Chicago two weeks ago when they upset the Packers and we'll go with them again this week. One unit on Chicago at +9 and one unit (admiteddly somewhat of a flyer) on the Bears to win the game.

*Jacksonville +3.5 (-110) vs. Indianapolis (Check latest line | Bet game @ BoDog)
*Jacksonville straight-up (+155) vs. Indianapolis

Jacksonville is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL this year. They are 3-0, have beaten two great defenses in Denver and Buffalo and a playoff team in Tennessee last week. Yet, here they are as an underdog of over a field-goal at home. We were all over JAX last week and we'll stick with them again. As I stated last week, I don't view their close wins as a weakness. I view them as a sign of strength. They find ways to win ballgames in the face of adversity. They have a stifiling defense that is allowing under 10 points per game and two of their games were against explosive offenses. This team reminds me of recent Super Bowl champs Tampa Bay and New England: Great defense, solid coaching and enough offense to win. Can they do it against the high-powered Indianapolis offense? Well, they did hold Steve McNair to 143 yards and sacked him three times and picked him off once. They've got a shot at keeping Manning in check. They also have a chance to finally score some points. Indianpolis' defense is ranked.... drum rolll please... dead last in the league. In September games, home dogs of less than a touchdown vs. an opponent that scored 35+ last week cover the spread 74% of the time. One unit on Jacksonville +3.5 and one unit on them to pull out the win.

***Miami +6 (-110) vs. New York Jets (Check latest line | Bet game @ BoDog)
***Miami straight-up (+230) vs. New York Jets

2-0 meets 0-3. Time for both of those zeros to turn into ones. Miami is desperate for a win and as such, Dave Wannstedt made the right decision and went back to Jay Fiedler. He is better than Feely who managed a 57.2 passer rating since replacing Fiedler in the first game. The Dolphins have clearly had trouble on offense but their defense is great (ranked 5th in the league). NY's strength has been offense (ranked 3rd). In a matchup of strong offense vs. stifling defense, it usually makes sense to side with defense in the NFL (remember the Super Bowl two years ago with #1 vs. #1?). The lack of success for teams like Miami usually doesn't continue for this long. Yes, they are struggling without Ricky Williams but this is the NFL where parity rules. Even struggling teams can win on any given Sunday. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have scored 17 or less points in three straight games and are averaging under two touchdowns per game cover the spread three quarters of the time in their next outing. Also, home dogs with a terrible record following 3 consecutive losses cover the spread 67% of the time. The Dolphins need this one to salvage their season. I belive they pull together and pull out the must-win at home against a team that can't help but be underestimating them. Three units on Miami to cover and three more on them to win.

*Tampa Bay +3 (-110) vs. Denver (Check latest line | Bet game @ BoDog)

You know I'm not sold on the Broncos. If not for a few incredibly timed mis-haps, San Diego would have covered last week instead of pushing. Today Tampa should cover. As is the case with a few other teams this week, Tampa is desperate for a win. Playing at home I think they'll get it or at least keep the contest close. It seems clear that the Broncos will miss Clinton Portis afterall. Quentin Griffen gave Broncos fans hope when he rushed for 156 yards in the first game but that was against Kansas City's defense - nuff said. Since then he's been a bust and last week rushed for 37 yards and coughed up the ball for the third straight week. Denver is 0-6 ATS following a home division-game win. I think Tampa steps it up in this one and keeps it close. One unit on Tampa +3.

*San Francisco +3.5 (-110) vs. St. Louis (Check latest line | Bet game @ BoDog)
*San Francisco straight-up (+150) vs. St. Louis

San Francisco has treated us very nicely this year and I'm backing them for the fourth straight week on Sunday Night Football. Despite being 0-3 and getting shell-shocked last week, they have played well enough to cover the spread 2 out of 3 times this year. Before last week they were outgaining their opponents and they have a solid defense, ranked 13th in the league. If you haven't figured this one out yet, St. Louis is not very good. The public seems to think they'll return to their Greatest Show on Turf days but they are long gone. Mike Martz is, in my opinion, a poor coach. He makes too many mistakes and has single-handedly ruined Marshall Faulk's career and his team along with it. It doesn't take a rocket-scientist to figure out that if you have Faulk on your team and you run him a lot you win. If you don't you lose. Why Martz "saves" him I do not know. Let's look at the last three games for St. Louis... In game one, Faulk had 22 carries and 128 yards and the Rams won. In games 2 and 3, he's averaged 12 carries for 32 yards and guess what? Yeah, they lost both games. I sense a pattern. What the hell is Martz thinking? About 3 times a season he decides to hand Faulk the ball 25-30 times. I hope he keeps up his crazy ways and doesn't decide to do that this week. On the other side of the ball, the Rams are 30th in the league in stopping the run. Kevan Barlow could have a big game. If San Francisco can establish the run and get up early, Martz will feel his phantom pressure to throw the ball 50 times. If that happens, San Fran can pull the upset. Winless dogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 44-18 over the past 10 seasons. One unit on the Niners at +3.5 and one unit on the win.