Hello
NFL Handicapping Fans,
NFL Picks are
9-1 ATS in first two weeks.
Week Two was a 5-0 week ATS with winners on Chicago, Carolina,
San Francisco, Miami and Buffalo. ATS picks were +500 units. The
money-line picks split, going 2-2 for +340 units thanks to two
huge underdog winners in Chicago and Carolina. Overall we were
+840 units on the week. My Monday Night Football recommendation
on the Eagles also won. I didn't make this an official pick, though
so I won't be counting it. View my previous NFL picks here.
This
week's newsletter includes an overview of the money-line. Betting the Money-Line in the NFL: Risking A Little
to Make a Lot
While
seasoned gamblers understand the money-line, many sports bettors
are not familiar with this betting option and the huge
potential benefits associated with utilizing it. This article
will describe the money-line and how it can be used to risk
a little
and win a lot in the NFL.
What is the Money-Line?
Playing the money-line is equivalent to picking a team (favorite
or underdog) to win the game straight-up. For this bet, there
is no spread. If the team you pick wins the game outright,
you win your bet. If the team loses, you lose the bet. Tthere
is no juice or vig (although the odds you get have casino
profit built in).
I know what you’re thinking – just pick the favorite
each time and laugh all the way to the bank! Well, it’s
not that simple. If this bet paid even money, you would simply
pick the favorites each week, win more than 50% of your bets,
and retire young. That’s why, of course, this bet doesn’t
pay even money. If you select a favorite to win straight up,
you need to put down more than you can win. If you select an
underdog, you need to put down less money than you can win.
Let’s look at a couple of examples: Example 1: Miami Dolphins -3 over Minnesota Vikings
For this game, the sports book has set the Money Line at -180
for Miami and +150 for Minnesota. That means that if you
want to bet Miami to win straight up, you would need to lay
$180 to win $100. If you want to take Minnesota to win straight-up,
you would lay $100 to win $150.
Example 2: Buffalo Bills +6.5 over Green Bay Packers
For the second game, the bookmaker has set the money at -300
for the Pack and +230 for Buffalo. The larger numbers reflect
the larger spread. If you can pick a 6.5 point underdog to
win straight-up, you would win $230 for a mere $100 bet.
Risking a Little to Win a Lot
What you may have noticed is that if you can successfully pick
underdogs to win straight-up, you can win a lot of money
without risking nearly as much. I like this fact about the
money line. And, if you combine money-line picks into parlays,
you can really hit the jackpot with a small investment. For
example, if we parlayed Minnesota and Buffalo with the money-line
in the above example, a $100 bet would yield $725 in winnings.
Throw in a third team (say, the Giants at +4.5) and a $100
bet would win $2,169.
Obviously, it is harder to pick underdogs to win straight-up,
right? Yes, but maybe not as hard as you initially think.
The spread only comes into play about 84% of the time
in the NFL.
In other words, the team that wins the game doesn’t cover
the spread only 16% of the time.
Also, since you win more than you bet when picking dogs with
the money line, you have to win a much smaller percentage
of your games to break even. The particular percentage depends
on the spread in the games you pick (the higher the spreads,
the fewer games you need to win since the money line pays
more
for higher spread dogs).
For example, let’s imagine over the course of the season
you were to pick 100 three-point underdogs to win straight-up
at a money line of +150. In this scenario, you would only need
to win 40% of those games to break even. On the 60 losses,
you would of course lose 60 units (there is no juice on money
line bets). On the 40 winners you would win 60 units (1.5 x
40).
If you were to pick one hundred 6.5-point underdogs to
win straight-up at a money line of +230, you would only
need
to win about 31% of your bets to break-even.
So, there is an opportunity to do well with the money-line
if you can select enough dogs that win straight-up.
What it All Means
This season, consider using the money-line to your
advantage. If you like an underdog and think they have
a shot at
winning the game outright, you might be better off
putting that
$100 on money-line for your team. If they win straight-up,
you’ll
rake in a lot more profits than if you had just bet them to
cover the spread. If you aren’t sure, split your bets
and put $50 on the dog to win straight-up and $50 to cover
the spread. If the team covers the spread but doesn’t
win the game, you break-even. If they win the game, you win
both bets!
Good luck!
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San Francisco +10.5 (-110) vs. Seattle (