Preview
After a decisive home win last week, Minnesota travels to Philadelphia to take on the 1-0 Philadelphia Eagles. This environment won't be anything like the friendly confines of the Metrodome. Philadelphia fans can get downright ugly and it will be a loud hostile environment at Lincoln Financial Field. This is the second-best quarterback matchup of the week (I'll give the nod to the Manning/McNair duo), pitting Donovan McNabb against Daunte Culpepper. McNabb threw for 360 yards and four TDs last week while Culpepper bested him with 5 touchdowns and the NFC offensive player of the week. Whether you agree with me on the ranking of these QBs, you can't argue about the receivers. We get two of the best in the game here with Terrell Owens and Randy Moss. Who will come out ahead?

 

Analysis
I like the Eagles to win at home and cover the three point spread. I'm not sold on Minnesota yet and I think their win last week was exactly what was expected - nothing more. McNabb and T.O. have to be licking their chops at the prospect of facing Minnesota's secondary. Vikings cornerbacks Antoine Winfield and Brian Williams were torched last week to the tune of 307 yards passing by Dallas. Winfield this week made some comments that tell me he's scared: "It's going to be tough... your head's going to be spinning." Everyone has worried about Philly's defense and the loss of two pro-bowlers in the secondary but don't forget why this defense is so tough. It's their unbelievable pressure and pass-rush. And, althought they lost players in the secondary, they gained Jevon Kearse making an already scary pass rush that much better. As a result, the Eagles had five sacks last week against the Giants.

 

Injuries
Minnesota is without TE Jim Kleinsasser and running backs Michael Bennett and Moe Williams. Obviously the edge goes to Philadelphia here.

 

Systems/Trends/Angles
In September games pitting two teams that won last week as favorites, the home team covers the spread 67% of the time. Minnesota's riding a 1-8 streak ATS following home games in which they were a favorite. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS on Monday night in their last six experiences. Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in their last seven against Philadelphia. Philadelphia gained 6.9 yards-per-play (YPP) last week while Minnesota gave up 5.9 per play to Dallas. Philly should be able to achieve 6.0 YPP or better tonight and when they have done this over the last three seasons, they are 10-1 ATS.

 

The Bottom Line
While I don't like it enough to make it an official premium pick, I think Philadelphia will win and cover the three point spread tonight. Philadelphia is a better team and this is going to be a very tough road game for the Vikings. A lean on the Eagles.