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2004 NFL - Week
17
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!NAME_COMMA!
 Week
16 Recap
After are big win streak, we hit the skids in week 16, wining just one
game. I guess all the luck this week went towards the College
Football picks (12-5 so far). Despite the poor weekend, the NFL picks are
still 61%
since
Thanksgiving and sit
at
61-53
ATS
and
20-35
ML
for
+485
units
overall season-to-date. As
always, you
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Week
17 - Playoff Implications
I can't remember such a wacky end to the NFL season. There are
more teams with nothing to play for this year than any I can
remember. The top six teams have a 74-16 record, the best ever
at this point in the season. As a result, we have very strong
teams as big underdogs to weaker teams with
playoff
hopes.
For
those
teams,
the playoffs
have begun. It's one and done for them.
Teams
that need to win to get in: NY Jets get in with a "W".
Denver is in if they win. If they lose but Jacksonville,
Baltimore and Buffalo
all lose, the Bronc's make it (talk about backing in). Minnesota
gets in with a win or a Carolina or St. Louis loss.
Teams
that need help: Buffalo needs to win and have the Jets
or Broncos lose. If the Ravens win and Buffalo, Denver and
Jacksonville
all lose, Baltimore squeaks in (good luck). Jacksonville
needs to win and have Buffalo and Denver lose. Carolina needs
a
lot
of help. If they win and Minnesota loses or Seatle wins or
St. Louis loses, the Panthers make it. After their start,
that would be truly amazing. New Orleans nees to win and
have St. Louis lose or have Seattle and Minnesota
both win. Finally, St. Louis must win and have Minnesota
or Seatle lose to get in.
Teams
that have nothing (technically) to play for: Arizona,
Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston,
Kansas City,
Miami, N.Y. Giants, Oakland, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Tennessee
and Washington are OUT. Those teams will likely be playing
hard for pride. Atlanta, Green Bay, Philadelphia San Diego,
Indianapolis, Pittsburgh
and
New
England have
all clinched their division and will likely play like Philadelphia
did on Monday night (I think they let the Waterboy take a
few snaps). Be careful in games involving these teams.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
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***TENNESSEE
+3 vs. Detroit (Check
latest line)
*TENNESSEE
straight-up (+145) vs. Detroit
I've
been a Titans-basher this season but I like 'em this
week for the first time all season. While I think they
were terribly overrated early on, I think they are
just the opposite here. It took five straight SU and
ATS losses by the Titans but finally the pendulum has
swung too far the other way and we
get
a nice underrated
home underdog. Tennessee got hammered by Denver last
week as Billy Volek came back down to earth after two
Peyton Manning-like performances in which he put up
over 900 yards against
Kansas City and Oakland. Meanwhile, Detroit has gotten
on peoples' radar screen, after winning more games
than they have in the last four seasons. They've done
it behind the legs of Kevin Jones. This guy is good
and should
have
some
success
against
Tennessee. But, I think Volek will likey return to
his winning ways. Whether or not you are a Billy Volek
fan, you
gotta give him props for being only the fourth QB to
ever
throw
for
400+
yards
in
back-to-back
games.
These are the Detroit Lions, folks, laying 3 points
on the road. The Lions are 3-4 in road games but those
three wins came
in
the
first
half
of
hte
season.
Since
mid-season
they are 0-4 on the road - the big fat goose egg. Yet
they are favored here. Tennessee qualifies for
a trend
involving
teams
in their last game of the season vs. an opponent off
a win that is 101-56 ATS and 7-2 over the past three
seasons. They also qualify for a trend that involves
home underdogs with poor defenses off a blowout loss
that is 48-18 ATS including 4-2 this year. The public
often overreacts and I think this is a perfect contrarian
play on the Titans to pull off the upset and win at
home. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
***WASHINGTON
+4 vs. Minnesota (Check
latest line)
*WASHINGTON
straight-up (+170) vs. Minnesota
Minnesota
is the better team, right? Not so fast. While
not as stellar a strory as the Buffalo Bills
or Carolina Panthers, this Redskins team has
turned
an awful
start into a respectable finish. They are playing
better than Minnesota right now in my opinion
and we're getting excellent value as a home underdog.
Last week they lost a close one to Dallas. But
prior to that, they had won four straight ATS,
covering
against both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Their
defense is excellent, ranked 2nd in the league
and surrendering under 17 points per game. In
their last eight
games,
only
Philly
scored more than 17 points on them. They have
the chance to really frustrate Culpepper, Moss
(who really isn't himself) and Burleson here.
This is by far the best defense the Vikings have
faced
all
season. Minnesota hasn't seen anything like this
and it could really throw them off.
Minnesota's defense, on the other hand... well...
bites. This gives us a shot at scoring some points.
They've allowed three-straight
300+ yard passers and they are surrendering 28
points per game over their last four games. Heck,
they made Joey Harrington look great! Prior to
his off week last week, Patrick Ramsey looked
very good against Philadelphia and San Francisco.
I think he'll do well today. The Vikes certainly
need the win here but I don't expect
Washington
to
lay
down
and
accomodate. The must-win scenario in Week 17
last year didn't help Minnesota much as they
fell to Arizona. The Redskins
want to go out on a winning note and want to
win too. Road favorites with
good
offenses
tend
to do poorly against the spread. In the second
half of the season, Minny is 0-2 ATS in this
role. Take the home puppy with the great defense
here against the team with no defense. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
***Tampa
Bay +3 vs. ARIZONA (Check
latest line)
*Tampa
Bay straight-up (+160) vs. ARIZONA
I'm
going against another team, Arizona, here that I
have enjoyed
backing this season. The fourth small underdog
pick, this time on the visiting team. I don't often
go
against home underogs this late in the season but
I like Tampa a lot here if Griese plays and a little
if Simms gets the call. They are the much better
team, statistically, in my book.
The Bucs have nearly a full yard advantage in offensive
yards-per-play. Griese has for the most part played
awesome since taking
over
for
Brad
Johnson.
Last
week, in
backing
Arizona, I talked about how Josh McCown had benefited
from his benching and was playing much better as
a result. Two points on this. First, this week he'll
be facing the league's 2nd best pass defense. I don't
expect him to have a lot of success agains the Bucs,
who are allowing just 164 yards per game through
the air. The matchup of this defense vs. one of the
best receiving corps (now with Anquan Boldin back
at full strength) should be fun to watch, if nothing
else. Secondly, if Chris Simms needs to go for Tampa,
there's a good
chance
he will
have
benefited
in a similar way from sitting back and watching for
a while. This could be Emmitt Smith's swan song.
I think his last game will be a loss. Tampa Bay is
8-1 ATS in road games after 3 or more
consecutive losses and 10-2 ATS in road
games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last
7 games since 1992. They are also 14-4
ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
over the
last 3 seasons. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations on
betting amounts.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for
each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed
to be an even $5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation
that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given
game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent.
There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
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