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2004 NFL - Week
15 Monday Night Football Edition
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!NAME_COMMA!
 Week
15 Another Big Winning Week - 80% ATS
This weekend's results: 4-1 ATS and 1-2 on the money-line. On Saturday, Carolina
pulled off the cover and nearly the outright win. On Sunday, we got easy covers
with the Jets
and
the Cardinals
(big 4-star underdog won outright in a big way). The Lions also covered. The
single loss was with the small 1-star Philly pick. Overall the week was +480
units.
You
can always view my 2004
NFL prior picks and write ups on my site. The NFL picks are now +1,350
units on the season.
Tonight's
Monday Night Football Matchup
Tonight the World Champs (New England) visit the World's
Worst (Miami). OK, maybe San Francisco is worse but Miami
is a joke this season. Can they must enough pride to
keep it closer than the large spread?
Good
luck tonight!COMMA_NAME!!
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   (+9.5) (Check
latest line)
Game
Preview
According
to the linesmakers, this is the third-biggest mismatch
of the weekend. The other two bigger favorites (Philadelphia
and Pittsburgh) both won but did not cover the big spreads.
Both nearly lost their games. Can Miami keep it close too?
Consider that the Dolphins have covered the spread 3 out
of their last 4 games. The Dolphins have also been successful
at containing Tom Brady. In his seven games against Miami,
Brady has averaged just 168 yards per game. They held him
to 76 yards earlier this season. But before you consider
backing Miami, know that fading the
Patroits
has
been a
horrible
proposition this year as they are 9-2 ATS this season.
How have they done with spreads this big? They covered
a 13 point spread against the Dolphins back in week 5 but
they
suffered
only
their
second ATS loss of the season last week, laying 11 against
Cincinnati.
Matchup
New
England knows how important home field advantage is. They
probably needed it the past couple of trips to the Super
Bowl. Pittsburgh won, making this an important game for
New England. Of any team in the league, I think New England
is the most business-like, well balanced and least susceptible
to a letdown - even against the Miami Dolphins. I think
the Charlie Weis issues have settled down enough to be
a non-factor this week. The Dolphins enter this game with
a slightly better defense, statistically at least, than
the Patriots. But, New England makes bigger plays more
often. But even if we call the defenses a draw, the big
difference here will be on offense. Miami's offense is
just terrible. Against this Patriot defense, they will
really struggle to score points here. The Fins are averaging
just 4.5 yards per play, 273 yards and 16.4 points per
game.
Injuries
Ty
Law and Dextre Reed are doubtful for the Patriots as is
Zach Thomas for the Fins. Not much of a factor here.
Systems/Trends/Angles
New
England is
6-0 ATS versus poor offensive teams (averaging <285
yards/game) over the last 3 seasons.
The Pats are also 7-1 ATS vs. good passing
defenses (allowing 175 or less passing yards/game over
the last
3 seasons). Miami is just 2-12 ATS when playing
against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) in the second
half of the season since 1992.
The
Bottom Line
This
is not an easy call, especially considering the large number
of big favorites which have failed to cover the spread
recently, but I like the Pats. Hard to go against a team
that is 23-5-3
ATS
in their
last
31
games. They are just a ton better than Miami. If these
teams played 100 games, I believe New England would cover
this spread 65 times. However, in the other 35, Miami would
get some turnovers or some early success that they parlay
into a close game. Tonight I'm going to assume it's one
of the 65 and go with the Pats in a blow out.
*New
England -9.5 (-110) vs. MIAMI
Check
latest line
Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations on betting
amounts.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for
each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed
to be an even $5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation
that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given
game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent.
There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
NFL Picks from
freeunderdog.com
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