|
   (-1.5) (Check
latest line)
 Game
Preview
Which
of these teams is a bigger dissapointment? After entering
the season with high hopes coming off playoff seasons in
2003, both trail every other team in their divisions and
both sit
at 4-8
SU and
4-8
ATS. The Chiefs and Titans are both banged up. KC is without
Priest Holmes and Tennessee again wonders whether Steve
McNair
will be
healthy
enough
to go. Kansas City is 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten Monday
night appearances while Tennessee is 1-6 ATS of a straight-up
loss. While there are no playoff implications in this game,
both teams want to win badly to make a terrible season
just a bit less terrible. While it appears on the surface
that neither team is a good pick, I like one of these two
tonight.
Matchup
Tennessee
and Jeff Fisher hit a new low last week. They went to the
gadget plays in a ludicrous way and still got absolutely
hammered by the Colts. I predicted the Colts might cover
that 55 point O/U by themselves and they nearly did. Priest
Holmes won't play in this game but it won't matter much
given that we are getting excellent
line value as a result. Derrick Blaylock (7 TDs in last
6 games) has been great in Holmes' absence and if he is
too banged up to
go,
Larry
Johnson (118 yards / 2 TDs last week) can fill
in adequately. This offensive line is top-2 in the
league so most anyone can run behind it and the KC-run
"system." The Chiefs put up 419 yards per game (2nd in
the NFLP)and over
28
points
per game. With the talent
on this KC offense, and the injuries that have plagued
the Titans this season on defense, KC is going to just
stride down the field in this one - continually. We saw
Indianapolis put up 51 on the Titans last week. KC could
do something similar tonight against a defense that has
surrendered an average of 41 points over the past two games.
Injuries
I
guess the info on Priest Holmes' website last week was
accurate when it said he was done for the season. The Chiefs
made it official this week. Kansas City is also without
defensive end Vonnie Holliday and center Chris Bober is
doubtful. As bad as the injuries are for the Chiefs, they
look like nothing compared to the Titans. Tennessee continues
to struggle with injuries. McNair is questionable (again)
but the bigger
problem area
is their defense. Corners Samari Rolle and Andre Woolfolk
are out as is free safety Lance Schulters and MLB Rocky
Calmus. I won't even go into the other questionable Titans
(including Chris Brown). They have a total of 17 players
out or questionable for this game.
Systems/Trends/Angles
There
are a few key trends here favoring Kansas City. Road underdogs
after gaining 450 or more total yards in their
previous game are 44-17 (72%)
ATS over the last 10 seasons. Also, road teams that have
scored 30+ points two weeks in a row if they are off a
road game
are 8-5 ATS over the past three years, 3-2 this year and
76% over the past ten years. Finally, visiting dogs of
7 or less vs. an opponent that has allowed a lot of points
two
games in a row are 6-4 ATS this year and 65% overall.
The
Bottom Line
If
you haven't noticed, I think the Chiefs are the better
team here. They are getting points as a bonus. Kansas City's
offense is one of the top three in the league. Tennessee's
offense is mediocre at best this season and their defense,
so good one year ago, has been decimated by injury and
just isn't very good. I expect Kansas City to score at-will
tonight. Can their defense hold Tennessee at all? I think
they will be able to stop them enough to allow
the Chiefs to win this game outright. We'll make the Chiefs
a 3-star pick tonight.
***Kansas
City +1.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee
Check
latest line
Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations on betting
amounts.
|
