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2004 NFL - Week
14
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!NAME_COMMA!
Week
13 Recap
Week 13 was a very profitable weekend for us in the NFL at +395 units
despite
a
couple
of dissapointing losses. We won big with Carolina, Indianapolis and Cincinnati
(both
against the
spread and straight-up). Pittsburgh missed the cover by a point thanks to a penalty
on a 4th and 10 play late in the game - arggh. The most dissapointing loss was
with Seattle, though, on Monday night. They blew a 10 point lead with under two
minutes
to
go and lost despite gaining over 500 yards. Anyway, the big picks came through
for
us,
making it a great week. Since Thanksgiving, the NFL picks are 14-4-1 overall.
It's been a good week for college hoops and NBA, too as I've gone 7-4 in
basketball so far this week.
Week
14 NFL - Crazy spreads, record-breaking and playoff implications
This week will be an interesting one. Thirteen of the
fifteen games being played on Sunday have a spread of
a touchdown or more. Five of them are in double digits!
Caution Will Robinson - Caution.
Also
this week, Peyton Manning can break Dan Marino's "unbreakable" single-season
TD record if he gets 5 against the Texans. Three teams
can advance to 12-1, which has never
happened before. Atlanta, Indianapolis, New
England and Pittsburgh can all win their divisions. Pittsburgh
faces the Jets who can clinch a playoff spot by pulling
the upset. I have a pick in this game and a couple
of others for Sunday.
You
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
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Everyone's
on the Pack in this one. Green Bay was on quite a
roll until they strolled into
Philly last week. 47-6... OUCH! That's gotta hurt.
How will the Pack react to that loss? That's the
big question here. My guess is that it will have
a bad effect. Green Bay was believing their own press
after reeling off six straight victories. They took
a major shot to the ego in that loss to Philadelphia.
The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through
Philly and Green Bay basically now knows it has no
shot. Green Bay doesn't perform very well after getting
spanked like they did last Sunday. They are just
1-5 ATS over the past three years after giving up
35+
points.
After
that
huge
game, they now have a let down in the making
as they
face
the
lowly
5-7
Detroit
Lions. How can they get up for this one after playing
the
Eagles last week, getting pasted like they did, and
with a big matchup against the Jaguars looming
next week? Meanwhile
this is
a huge
game
for Detroit. They absolutely need a win to keep any
playoff homes alive. A win over Green Bay would revitalize
their season. This is also a revenge game for them
and the Lions are 5-1 ATS over the past three seasons
revenging an earlier season loss. The final reason
for this pick is Green Bay's defense, or lack thereof.
The Pack defense is really bad and not getting any
better. They are allowing
415 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play over the
past three games. One star pick: Detroit to keep
this closer than a lot of people think. If you hang
around until close to kickoff, my guess is you'll
get 10 points or more. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
The
marquee matchup of the week featuring quarterbacks
from that perennial QB-factory: the MAC conference.
Other similarities here between these two
clubs: great running games and
tough defenses. I've been a big fan of Pittsburgh
this year and
we've made some bank by backing them. But,
I like the Jets to keep it close in this
spot. Here's why: First, the Jets need this
game more. They are fighting for their playoff
lives while Pittsburgh is already in. Yes,
Pitt needs to keep winning to keep their
home-field chances alive but survival is
the ultimate motivator. Simply put,
this is the most important game of the year
for the Jets. It's a big test for them and
they'll be ready. Statistically, the Jets
have the better offense and allows fewer
points per game while Pitt has the advantage
on defense from a yardage perspective. The
Jets are allowing only 14.6 points per game
and they've held their last three opponents
to a touchdown or less. Pittsburgh has slowed
a bit as of late as
their high-potent offense has dropped to
just 17 points per game and 252 yards yards
over their last three. The absence of Plaxico
Burress (hurting again this week) has hurt
Roethlisberger's production. Overall, Pittsburgh
is the better team but I don't think they
should be laying this many points in this
situation. The spread is six. The Jets have
lost
3 games thus far this season: on the road
in New England by 6, away at Buffalo (without
Pennington) by 5 and vs. Baltimore (without
Pennington again) by 3. So, they haven't
lost by this much, save the game on the road
against the 11-1 Super Bowl champs. They
now have Pennington back and a lot to play
for. Give me the motivated team with the
stingiest defense in the NFL and six points.
Three star pick: J-E-T-S-Jets-Jets-Jets. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Really,
I wasn't planning on picking
Carolina again for a third
straight week just because
they
have cashed in for us in
a big way the last two.
But, they just bubbled
back
up to
the
top of this week's list
again.
Carolina's on a tear and
I think the ride will continue
again on Sunday vs. a Bulger-less
St. Louis team. The Panthers
are finally playing like
the Super Bowl team of
one year ago. Jake Delhomme
has calmed down and gotten
his confidence and poise
back (11 TDs/2 INT in last
five games). It's taken
two thirds of
a season,
but
they've
finally gotten "used
to" playing
without Steve Smith and
Stephen Davis. They've
played through tremendous
adversity this season and
I think it has made them
stronger. They now believe
in themselves and their
playoff chances in a big
way. St. Louis is another
story. Against lowly San
Francisco, averaging
28 points allowed per game,
the Rams managed only 16
points. The Rams lost Marc
Bulger and after starting
the season 4-2, they've
slipped to .500. Marshall
Faulk is out and Steven
Jackson has a sprained
knee, which could force
Arlen Harris to start.
Even if Jackson plays,
he will probably be less
than 100%. The Rams' strength
is their
passing game - ranked 4th
in the league. With Bulger,
the Rams averaged 300 yards
per game passing. While
solid, 80-year-old Chris
Chandler
isn't going to be lighting
up
the scoreboard.
The Rams will now be going
into
Carolina
and the place will be rocking.
I know, detractors will
point
to
the fact
that Carolina's played
some pretty bad teams during
their recent resurrgence.
But, don't worry about
that.
They did what very good
teams should do against
bad teams - they blow them
out. They've
won by an average score
of 31-18 over their past
four. Expect Nick Goings
(three straight 100+ yard
games) to have success
against the league's 28th
ranked rush defense. The
Rams, we know, are a different
team away from home. They
have dropped their last
three
road games by an average
score of 38-16. In their
last six games, the Rams
have only beaten the struggling
Seahawks and league-worst
49ers. December road underdogs
that are struggling tend
to continue their slides
as dogs off 2+ ATS losses
fail to cover on the road
to the tune of 72%. As
an added bonus, there's
at
least
a 50%
chance that Mike Martz
will make a bonehead decision
that will cost his team
7 points. Three star pick:
Carolina minus 6.5. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations
on betting amounts.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for
each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed
to be an even $5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll.
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
NFL Picks from
freeunderdog.com
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