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2004 NFL - Week
13 Monday Night Football Edition
!NUMBER_OF_SUBSCRIBERS!
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!NAME_COMMA!
 Another
Winning Week 13
On Sunday, we hit 67% of our picks (4-2-1). Against the spread we went 3-2-1
and
we went 1-0
on
the
money
line. Cincinnati won ATS and straight-up, Carolina won easily as the 5-star pick
and Indy also easily covered. Pittsburgh missed it by a point and Arizona got
beat
with
the rookies in place. Since the
big-star
(3+) picks
went 3-1,
it
a
very
profitable
+450 unit day.
You can always view my 2004
NFL prior picks and write ups on my site.
Tonight's
Monday Night Football Matchup
Tonight two struggling teams matchup in the Great Northwest
as the 4-7 Dallas Cowboys (4-7 ATS) visit the 6-5 Seattle
Seahawks (4-7 ATS). Will Seattle blow 'em out? My thoughts
below...
Good
luck tonight!COMMA_NAME!!
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   (-7) (Check
latest line)
Game
Preview
Dallas
showed some life on Thanksgiving by finally winning. They've
got Julius Jones back and as a result, rushed for over
150 yards for only the second time this season. Drew Hensen
drew his first start last week, only to get benched midway
through the game. The move proved fruitful for the Boys.
With the win, Dallas moved to 4-7 and kept playoff hopes
alive. Seattle sits at 6-5 and looks like a lock for the
playoffs in the weak NFC. But, they've lost two of their
last three, the last one a 38-9 loss at the hands of the
Buffalo Bills. The Seahawks enter this game as a favorite
for the 10th time this season. The Hawks have underperformed
in this role, going just 4-5 ATS this season when laying
points. Tonight they are giving up a full touchdown. Do
they deserve to be favored by this much against a Dallas
team that is coming off a few extra days of rest? Which
team is the lesser of two evils? Dallas is just 1-4 ATS
this year against winning teams while Seattle is only 1-4
ATS in their last five home games and 2-5 ATS as a favorite
of more than 3 but less than 10 points.
Matchup
Both
of these teams can be described as bitter dissapointments
this year. Dallas was off a surprising 10-6 season and
expectations were high again. Seattle was supposed to be
this year's rags to riches story. Many of the prognosticators
had them as their Super Bowl pick before the season began.
Dallas has been just awful while Seattle has lost a lot
of games they were supposed to win. I believe Seattle hit
rock bottom last week, losing to Buffalo as a five point
favorirte. I've been one of their most vocal detractors
as I've expressed my
opinion
that
they were overrated most of the year. Now they are laying
a full touchdown. But, finally I think the public has caught
up to the fact that the Seahawks really aren't that good.
As a result, I think they are not entering this game overrated.
I think this spread is about right. I like the matchup
of Shaun Alexander (1200 yards rushing and 10 TDs) vs.
Dallas' defense. The Cowboys are scoring just 14 points
per game on the road this season while giving up 30. Opposing
quarterbacks are completing an obscene 68% of their passing
against Dallas in these games.
Injuries
Dallas
is relatively healthy with only G Andre Gurode questionable
with a knee injury. Seattle is without linebackers
Chad Brown and Tracy White and could be without CB Bobby
Taylor.
Systems/Trends/Angles
Dallas
is coming off their best defensive performance of
the season. They held their opponent to under 10 points
for the first time. But, they aren't very good, historically
following these efforts. In fact, when playing on the road,
they are 4-14 ATS after holding opponents under 10 points
The
Bottom Line
This
is a pretty hard one to call in my opinion. While it's
tough to lay 7 with a Seahawks squad that has so underperformed
this season, I think things have gotten about as bad as
imaginable in Seattle
and I
think
they
are poised
for
a
bounceback.
Holmgren
called last week's win "embarrasing" and I expect his team
to respond this week. Reports are that the teams'
spirits are surprisingly high and
that coach Holmgren has his troops fired up for this game.
With the Rams winning on Sunday, Seattle needs this game
to maintain their lead in the NFC West. I also think that
despite the win last week (against a weak Chicago team),
the Cowboys still have very little going for them. I like
Seattle at home here.
*SEATTLE
-7 (-110) vs. Dallas (1% of bankroll)
Check
latest line
Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations on betting
amounts.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for
each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed
to be an even $5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation
that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given
game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent.
There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
NFL Picks from
freeunderdog.com
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