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2004 NFL - Week
13
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Week
12 Recap
Week
12 was nearly perfect for us as we went 6-1 ATS and 4-0
on the MoneyLine. It was the first real killer week since
we started
the 2004
NFL regular season off with the 9-1 ATS run in weeks 1 and
2. Finally our philosophy of selectively going against the
public paid off. There were four very nice contrarian underdog
plays on Sunday that came through for us with ATS and straight-up
wins.
You
can view all of my previous
NFL picks and prior newsletters/write-ups. Congratulations
to subscriber "KingDavid" put together 4 parlays with the
picks, risking $300 to win $2800.
AFC/NFC
Disparity
How
bad is the NFC compared to the AFC? AFC teams are 32-18 vs. their
counterparts this season. In the NFC, several teams sitting at
4-7 still have a chance to make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, there could be an 11-win team in the AFC that watches
from home in January. Very sad.
Week
13 Picks
Six picks for this Sunday...
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
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In
predicting the Panthers win last week, I
noted that the Carolina's resurrgence had
yet to be noticed by the league or sports
bettors. I predicted that after they beat
Tampa Bay, the secret would be out. I was
wrong. They still aren't getting the respect
they deserve in this one. Carolina is better
than New Orleans and is riding a run of solid
play and confidence. They should be favored.
Instead, we get a very hot team getting
points
against
a
poor
team.
Hallelujah!
Despite Carolina's early season troubles
this year (they started 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS),
they have actually been amazing on the road.
They are 4-1 against the number this year
away rom home. The Panthers are also 11-2
ATS as a road underdog of a touchdown
or
less
while
New
Orleans
is 1-6 at home vs. division opponents. But
let's get back to these teams' recent performances.
Carolina is a different team than the one
that started 1-7. Over their past three games,
all SU and ATS winners, they are averaging
31 points per game and surrendering just
17. New Orleans, on the other hand, has lost
by an average score of 20-30 over their past
four games. Against good defenses this year
(TB, SD, DEN), the Saints haven't scored
more than 17 points. The Panthers, behind
a hot Jake Delhomme/Mushin Muhammed combination
and a rediscovered Nick Goings, will score
more than that today against the league's
worst defense. Goings has gained 227 yards
over the past two games alone. The Panthers
believe while the Saints know they aren't
going to make it this year. Five stars (5%
of your bankroll) on the Panthers plus 1.5
here. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Yes,
I know Arizona
entered this year
on a 4-12 ATS streak
on the road and
hadn't won on the
road in nearly
two seasons. But
this year is different.
They won their
first game on the
road four weeks
ago and are 3-3
ATS away from home.
Detroit, meanwhile,
really stinks it
up at home. They
are 1-4 SU and
ATS and have lost
by an average of
two touchdowns
per game in the
Dome this year.
The Cardinals start
their third different
QB in the last
four games. Rookie
John Navarre gets
the call at quarterback
and rookie runningback
Larry Croom starts
in place of the
injured Emmitt
Smith.
If it weren't for
these
moves, I'd be making
this a 3 star selection
but I need to back
down a bit given
the risk inherent
in starting two
rookies. Visiting
underdogs playing
a team that lost
ATS the following
week on Monday
or Thursday cover
the spread about
three fourths of
the time. I like
Dennis Green to
find a way to keep
this one close.
One star on Arizona
plus six . (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
***Cincinnati
+6.5 (-110) vs. BALTIMORE (Check
latest line)
*Cincinnati straight-up
(+240) vs. BALTIMORE
The
Bengals are off a big time
win in which they put up
58 points. I expect some
of that momentum to carry
into this game, giving
them a fighting chance
against against a Jamal-less
Ravens team. Baltimore
is in a tough spot in this
one. They are off a humbling
24-3 loss to New England.
It was a game they desperately
wanted, to prove that their
offense was improving and
that they could hang with
the big boys. They got
sent back to the little
leagues as their offense
was held to 124 yards of
total offense. While the
Bengals scored 58 points,
their defense allowed 48.
That's embarrasing to a
defensive mastermind like
Marvin Lewis. As a result,
I expect the Cincinnati
defense to come out with
one of its best performances
of the season. They'll
need it as they won't score
a lot. Cincinnati's averaging
a full yard-per-play more
than Baltimore (5.5 vs.
4.5). This season, road
teams with a higher YPP
average are 25-9 ATS. Back
to my initial momentum
comment, road underdogs
in games following a 450+
yard offensive performance
cover the spread about
72% of the time. Six and
a half points is too much
in this
one and we'll go with the
dog. Three stars on Cincinnati
plus the points and one
star on the Bengals to
pull the upset and win
outright. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
If
last week's
theme was
finding
underdogs
that were
better
than their
opponent,
this week's
theme has
got to
be one
of riding
the momentum.
San Diego
is on fire
while Denver
is fading.
The Chargers
are kicking
butt and
taking
names.
They are
doingit
on both
sides of
the
ball with
a solid
balanced
offense
and a stifling
run defense.
They are
averaging
35.5 points
per game
over their
last four.
Granted,
this is
the best
defense
they have
seen all
season
but I think
they have
found a
formula
that works.
I also
believe
it to be
very multi-dimensional
which will
give them
options.
Denver
can't simply
bottle
up LaDanian
Tomlinson
as Brees
/Gates/McCardell
will kill
them. If
they focus
on stopping
the potent
Chargers
passing
game, LT
will eat
them up.
I expect
San Diego
to have
offensive
success
against
a deense
that was
exposed
last week.
Denver,
on the
other hand
is somewhat
of a mystery.
They can
be a Jeckyl
and Hyde
team. Not
sure which
one will
show up
but I give
it at least
a 50% chance
o being
the one
that doesn't
play very
well. You
know -
the one
in which
Jake Plummer
makes more
mistakes
than good
plays.
Both teams
have a
lot to
play for
but I give
the emotional
edge to
San Diego
or three
reasons.
First,
they are
playing
at home
in front
of a fired
up crowd
that hasn't
seen their
team in
this position
for years.
Secondly,
I think
Denver
is very
dissapointed
to be where
they are
right now
whereas
San Diego
is hyped.
Lastly,
this is
a revenge
game for
San Diego
and a chance
to lock
up the
division.
They will
be coming
to play
and they
are playing
much better
than Denver
right now.
Three stars
on the
Bolts here. (Bet
game @
BoDog | Bet
game @
BetOnline)
***INDIANAPOLIS
-10.5 (-110)
vs. Tennessee (Check
latest line)
Guys,
this spread couldn't
be high enough.
The Colts are super-hot
right now, making
it almost impossible
to bet against
them. They are
scoring 34.5 points
per game this year
and it's only going
north. Over their
last three, they
are averaging nearly
44 per game! They
are absolutely
crushing
everything in their
path. The Titans,
meanwhile, are
out of the playoffs
and I'm thinking
- out of steam.
What do they have
to play for this
week? Nada. Zero.
Nothing. This team
is deflated and
defeated. Steve
McNair this week
admitted he can't
play with these
injuries. He hinted
at retirement.
Do you do that
and then come
out and play your
best game of the
season? Not likely.
And unless all
the Titans play
their best game,
they have no shot
here. As
I mentioned last
week, the
much maligned Indy
defense actually
has been playing
very good against
poor offenses.
While giving up
33 per game against
offenses ranked
in the top half
of th league, they
are allowing just
15.4 vs. teams
in the bottom half.
They beat Tennessee
31-17 in week two
and they've just
gotten much better
since then. Peyton
Manning and the
league's top ranked
offense is going
to tee off on Tennesse,
who is rife with
injuries in the
secondary. They
are without their
starting free safety
and one or both
cornerbacks. While
the Colts could
fall
unexpectedly before
the end of this
season, it won't
be this week. I
expect a big time
blowout in this
one as the Colts
could cover the
55 point O/U by
themselves. Three
stars on Indy.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Whoa.
Pittsbugh finally lost ATS last week
after covering eight straight games and
Big Ben's been less than stellar for
a couple of weeks in a row. Maybe they
aren't that good. Jacksonville has
more
to play
for
here
- maybe they'll
win. Hogwash on both fronts. Ladies
and Germs, this Steelers team is for
real.
We're only laying three here which is
a gift. I think this spread should be
closer to six. Jacksonville does not
match up well here. While their defense
is very good, their offense is not. Against
a great defensive team like Pitt, they
will struggle mightily to move the ball,
let alone score points. Pittsburgh has
squeked by the past couple of weeks but
it's amazing they haven't dropped a game.
They've been without running back Duce
Staley for a month and Plaxico Burress
sat out last game when Pitt had to face
the league's #1 defense. Both Plaxico
and the Duce are expected to play in
this one. It's true that Jacksonville
has a lot to play for but they're running
into one of the best teams in the NFL
that also has a lot to play for. The
Steelers are deadlocked with New England
atop the AFC. Home field advantage will
probably decide which of these two teams
heads to the Super Bowl and the Steelers
know that. No chance of a let down here.
Jacksonville has had it's greatest success
this year when they can establish the
run with Fred Taylor. The Jags' recipe
for success includes great defense and
ball control offense. They can't win
a shootout because they can't score.
Jacksonville is averaging just 16.5 points
per game. Well, I don't see Taylor having
much success againt the league's best
run defense - a team that has allowed
just one 100 yard rusher this season.
Pittsburgh has the league's most prolific
running game and the top defense. The
stats back up the fact that Pittsburgh
is for real. Remind me why we are only
laying three here?
Three stars on the Steelers minus the
field goal. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Worth
a look (not official picks):
 Atlanta +1.5
over Tampa Bay - Better team getting points.
Miami
+3.5 over Buffalo -Good matchup for Miami. Buffalo
ready to come back down.
New
England -7.5 over Cleveland - Great against bad.
Philadelphia
-6 over Green Bay - Green Bay playing good but outclassed here.
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations
on betting amounts. |
Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for
each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed
to be an even $5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation
that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given
game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent.
There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
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