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Happy Thanksgiving

Turkey, couch, big screen TV and football. What could be better? Outside of the Super Bowl, this is the best day in football. Especially if you're a Cowboys or Lions fan. This year, Colts and Bears fans get to partake in the festivities as well. I've got picks for both games today. I'll be sending out a separate newsletter on Friday for Sunday's games.

Good luck today!COMMA_NAME!!

(+9) (Check latest line)

Detroit typically plays well on Thanksgiving day but how can we go against the Colts and Peyton Manning right now? Manning is on pace to shatter Dan Marino's single-season touchdown record of 48. At this rate, Manning will surpass that mark in week 15 and end up with 54 on the season. No situations here, no motivational factors. This is simply a matchup of an incredible team against a fairly bad one. Indy's off a 41-10 spanking of the Chicago Bears and a 49-14 win over Houston the week before. They're averaging a ridiculous 39 points per game over their last four. They are on fire and we're going to jump on this streak before it ends. In addition to Manning's work, Edgerrin James is playing like he did in 1999 and 2000 when he posted back-to-back rushing titles. He currently leads the AFC in rushing and is averaging a career-high 4.9 yards per rush. On top of the offensive performances, Indy's normal swiss-cheese defense has actually played decently as of late. They've held their last two opponents to under two touchdowns. They are allowing 23 points per game but let's look deeper. Against good offenses (top half in the league in scoring), the Colts have allowed 33 points per game. Against poor offensive teams (Detroit qualifies), they've allowed a very respectable 16.5 per game. Detroit's lost four straight and there's even talk of sitting Joey Harrington. Road teams that scored the most points the previous week and won their game by 25+ points are 4-0 ATS this year and 70% ATS historically. The Colts qualify under this angle today. While I rarely like to lay more than a touchdown, I can't see any way for the Lions to stay in this one. The Colts jump out early here and never look back. We'll go with them minus the points for one star (1% of bankroll). (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

(-3.5) (Check latest line)

As mentioned, the Bears are off a crushing 41-10 defeat at the hands of the Colts. I don't read too much into that as the Colts are en fuego right now. Chicago isn't as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate. While they started horribly at 1-5, they've since gone 3-1, surprising the Giants and Titans as a 9 and 6 point underdog, respectively. Dallas is showing that they are a terrible team. Parcells hasn't been able to move them in the right direction for weeks. I do think they are going to improve throughout the rest of the year now that the pressure of playoff contention is gone and Julius Jones and Drew Henson get some playing time. I just don't think this is the game in which that happens. While those guys will help, Dallas' primary problem is not on offense. Their defense is allowing 28.2 points per game - third worst in the league. I don't like laying over a field goal on a team with a "rookie" quarterback and a defense that is this bad. Underdogs off a big 3+ touchdown loss vs. a team playing terrible defense are 52-24 (68%) ATS. Two weeks ago New Orleans faced Kansas City in this exact situation as the Saints were off a 17-43 loss and KC had given up 69 points in their prior two games. New Orleans covered as a 3.5 underdog - the same spread we are looking at in this game. A slight lean on the Bears here to keep it close. We'll go one star (1% of bankroll) on Chicago plus the points. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

Since these are both leans, an option that you might view as less risky is to put these two into a 6.5 teaser (Indianapolis -2.5 and Chicago +10).

See Star-Ratings section below for recommendations on betting amounts.

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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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