!NAME_COMMA!

Sunday Perfect
Finally a monster day for us as the underdogs we went with came through in big fashion. Yesterday we went 4-0 ATS for +500 units and 4-0 on the money-line for another +435 units. Overall a perfect 8-0 day for +935 units. You can always view my 2004 NFL prior picks and write ups on my site.

Tonight's Monday Night Football Matchup
Two teams trying to hold on to their past clash tonight on the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field in Green Bay. While both of these teams were great not too long ago, the lustre has faded. The Packers (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) started off the year in horrible fashion, going 1-4 SU and ATS. Since week five, though, they have reeled off five straight victories and now are solidly in the NFC playoff hunt. St. Louis has been up-and down. The Rams (5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS) have been somewhat streaky and are off a big loss to the Bills. Brett Favre will set a record tonight with his 200th consecutive start. The prototypical Iron Man is playing like his old self. Can he continue his elevated play or will he revert to his more error prone ways? Tonight, the Packers look to continue their roll. Can they cover the large number at home?

Good luck tonight!COMMA_NAME!!

(-6) (Check latest line)

Game Preview

Last time we saw the Packers on Monday night, they were embarrased to the tune of a 27-48 home loss to the Tennessee Titans. That loss dropped the Pack to 1-4. Since then, Brett Favre has led his team back to respectability. Three MVP awards. A Lombardi trophy. Two hundred consecutive starts at a position that is prone to injury. What will Brett Favre do next? He's so good because his love and passion for the game are unmatched. This passion and drive helped his team overcome a 10-point deficit last week against the Texans to keep their win streak alive. Yesterday's win by the Vikings means Green Bay needs to win to maintain a share of the lead in their division. Yesterday's loss by the Seahawks has opened the door for St. Louis to climb back into a tie for the lead in their's with a win tonight. St. Louis, after winning three straight from weeks 4-6, seems to have stubbed its toe a bit, having gone 1-3 since then. While they beat Seattle, they lost to three teams with very good defenses: Miami, New England and Buffalo. Can they bounce back tonight against an average defense? Or will Green Bay pull off a touchdown-plus win to avenge their embarrasing Monday night loss in October?

Matchup

While this is a good amount of points to lay, there are several reasons why I'm leaning towards Green Bay tonight. First off, as I've mentioned, the Packers have a guy named Brett Favre. While he's had his issues over the past couple of seasons, he seems to be in a zone right now. Following that Tennessee loss when he nearly cried in the post-game press conference, he's helped his team get on a tear. Over the past ive games, Green Bay is winning by an average score of 31 to 18. Favre isn't the only reason for this. Green Bay is averaging 4.9 yards per rush over that span and 152 yards per game on the ground. Their defense has stepped it up big-time and are holding opponents to just 72 yards per game on the ground. I think the Rams are in trouble. They are stumbling and took a real beating last week. While some teams respond to these situations by digging deep and coming back strong. I don't think the Rams have the heart or talent for this. Not on the road in Green Bay on Monday night. Not when the Packers will be playing to avoid another upset loss on the national stage.

Injuries

St. Louis will be without G Chris Dishman and CB Dejuan Groce. While Torry Holt is listed as questionable, I expect him to play - this is too big a game. The biggest question mark for Green Bay is running back Ahman Green, listed as questionable. As with Holt, I expect him to play.

Systems/Trends/Angles

As long as Green plays, I like this stat: Green Bay is 5-1 ATS versus poor rushing defenses (those allowing >=130 rushing yards/game) over the last 3 seasons. When he's on, the Packers don't lose. Either way, St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in road games in November games over the last 3 seasons.

The Bottom Line

While my power ratings indicated Green Bay is definitely the stronger team, this spread is probably a bit high. You could argue there is value on the Rams as a result. This is why I'm not making it a bigger play. I still think Green Bay will win and cover but it's a lot of points and could creep even higher by game time.

 

*GREEN BAY -6 (-110) vs. St. Louis (1% of bankroll)

 

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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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