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2004 NFL - Week
12
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Hope you had a great Thanksgiving. On Turkey Day, Dallas proved
there's some hope with Julius Jones in the backfield and Indianapolis
showed that if they can play some defense to go with that sick
offense, they'll be hoisting the Lombardi come February. They've
now held three straight opponents to two touchdowns or less.
That might not be so easy, though, in January. In my write-up
of the Indy/Detroit game yesterday, I noted that Indianapolis
actually plays great defense against poor offensive teams,
holding these opponents to under 16 points per game. But they
can't stop the good offenses, giving up 33 per game against
teams ranked in the top half of the league in scoring. Should
make for some interesting OVER/UNDERs in January when Indy
clashes with a potent offense.
Week 12 Picks
I've got four this Sunday and the theme is a simple one. I
believe this to be the week that the public takes it in the
shorts. There are four games on Sunday in which I think the
better team is getting points. While I typically bet this
way, I've been burned more often than not this year. I think
this is the weekend that things return to normal and some
favorites fall hard.
You
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
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**HOUSTON
+1.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee (Check
latest line)
**HOUSTON straight-up (+110) vs. Tennessee
The
last time these two teams met, Houston won the game
20-10 as a 6.5 point underdog. Revenge here for the
Titans or same result? Same result. Sure, Tennessee's
off a win and Houston is floundering. But, it's ridiculous
that Tennessee is favored here. Houston is the better
team and they are at home. After
starting the season 4-3, they've dropped three straight.
But who
have they played in these three? Only the surging
Green Bay Packers, on-fire Denver Broncos and unstoppable
Indianapolis Colts. I can't blame them for going
0-3 against that group. Tennessee doesn't come close
to any of them.The Titans could have
easily lost last week and even with the win, they
are 4-6 on the season and they remain severely banged
up. The Titan secondary is a mess. They are without
DB Justin Sandy, FS Lance Schulters, SS Tank Williams
and CB Andre Woolfolk. Others including SS Scott
McGarrahan and CB Samari Rolle are questionable for
this game. Tennessee's looking at its third-straight
road game and they they qualify for a trend here
involving teams in this situation in which the home
team 16-4 ATS. Houston wins this outright.
We'll go
two
stars (3%) with the points and another two-stars
on the straight-up Texan win. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
**San
Diego +3 (-110) vs. KANSAS CITY (Check
latest line)
*San Diego straight-up (+130)
vs. KANSAS CITY
Another
incorrect spread. Yeah, KC has a potent offense
and they are at home. But, San Diego is a
very good team and probably better than the
Chiefs. As a result, I think we're getting
good value
here with
the points.
The Bolts are an amazing 8-1 ATS this year
and it seems the public continues to be slow
to react. The Chargers have won 4 straight.
They have an amazing offense right now with
Tomlinson, Brees, Antonio Gates and the addition
of Keenan McCardell. Who do you cover on
this team? There are too many weapons. They
put up 42 points against Oakland four weeks
ago
and
43 against
New
Orleans the following week. They scored only
23 against the Raiders in the rematch last
week but as coach Marty Schottenheimer said,
they "left between 11 and 15 points on the
field" due to rust off the bye. Agains this
Kansas City defense, the second-highest scoring
team in the league should have a lot of success.
But how can they slow down Kansas City? Maybe
in the same way New England did - by bottling
up the run. San Diego boasts the league's
top run defense, holding opponents to a stingy
76 yards per game. The Priest is again sitting
on the sidelines for this one. Take the gift
of the points as this should be closer to
a pick-em game in my opinion. Small visiting
dogs facing a team that has allowed 25+ points
two straight weeks are 4-1 ATS this season
and 66% over the past ten years. Two stars
(2%) on the Bolts plus the field goal and
another 1 star (1%) on them to pull the upset
in Arrowhead. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
***Buffalo
+5 (-110) vs. SEATTLE (Check
latest line)
**Buffalo straight-up
(+195) vs. SEATTLE
There's
a theme this weekend and
it should be obvious by
now. Overrated teams continue
to get too much respect.
Sure, Buffalo started slowly
and Seattle came out of
the gate on a tear. But
recent history has
told a different story.
Seattle is 3-4 SU and 1-6
ATS in their last seven
as
the
public
still remembers their strong
start out of the gates.
Buffalo started the 2004 campaign 1-5 SU but they've since gone 3-1 both SU and
ATS. As was the case last
week in the Buffalo/St.
Louis game, Buffalo is
the better team here and
getting a full five points.
What a nice pre-Christmas
gift for us. The Seahawks
are forced to start Jerry
Rice (love him but his
time has come and gone)
due to Koren Robinson's
supspension. Additionally,
Matt Hasselbeck remains
banged
up and may
not play today. That
would make this even a
better
pick. Either way, the Seahawks
will try to throw a lot
of Shaun Alexander at the
Bills. Alexander leads
the NFL in rushing with
1151 yards and 10 touchdowns.
But, I expect the
Bills' sixth ranked defense
to keep him controlled
enough. Ladies and Gentlemen,
Drew Bledsoe and the Bills
are playing with a new
found confidence. Don't
get in the way of it. The
Bills +5 for three stars
(3%) and two stars (2%)
on the straight up Bufalo
win.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
***CAROLINA
+3 (-110)
vs. Tampa Bay (Check
latest line)
*CAROLINA
straight-up
(+130)
vs. Tampa Bay
Yes,
another contrarian
play on the underdog
that I view to
be the better team.
Everyone seems to be on the Bucs this week. They have certainly come back from
the dead behind
the legs of Michael
Pittman and the
arm of
Brian
Griese.
After starting
1-5 SU and 1-4-1
ATS, they've bounced
back to 3-1 SU
and ATS over their
last four games
and now have a
shot at the playoffs
in the weak NFC.
While a lot of
it is
due
to Brian
Griese who I've
written about as
being much better
than most people
give him credit
for, a lot also
has to do with
their schedule.
When you face play
three home games
against Chicago,
Kansas City and
San Francisco,
you'd better go
3-0 or at least
2-1. The single
loss over the past
month? To Atlanta
on the road. Now
TB is laying
a field goal on
the road. Seems
fishy to me. Meanwhile,
no one seems to
have noticed the
Panthers' resurrengce.
Possibly because
it's still on the
upswing. I think
the leauge will
take notice ater
they beat the Bucs
today. Carolina
has gone 3-1 ATS
in their last four.
They beat up on
the Cardinals and
49ers in a big
way and kept it
close against Oakland
and Seattle. Yes,
three of those
opponents were
also bad but I
was particularly
impressed with
the win against
an up-and-coming
Cardinals squad.
The Panthers beat
them 35-10 and
that showed me
something. But,
none of these reasons
are the primary
one I like this
game. The biggest
one is a bit hidden.
Did you know that
Carolina owns the
best red-zone offense
in the league?
That's right. They
score a TD 69%
of the time and
put it through
the uprights 26%
of the time the
time they get inside
the opponent's
20 yard line. That's
95%, my friends.
Conversely, Tampa
puts up points
just 60% of the
time. On defense,
Carolina also does
a better job in
the red zone than
Tampa. In what
figures to
be a
tight,
closely fought
battle, I think
this is a huge
advantage for the
Panthers. We'll
go three units
(3%) on Carolina
+2.5 and another
1-star (1%) on
Carolina to pull
the upset. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations
on betting amounts.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for
each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed
to be an even $5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll.
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
NFL Picks from
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