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 Game
Preview
Arguably
the best team in the NFL strides into the unfriendly confines
of Arrowhead stadium. Outside of the Pittsburgh game, the
Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-1-2 ATS) have been perfect - for themselves
and for bettors. Kansas City (3-6 SU and ATS) has been
a major dissapointment. Many preseason prognostigators
had them going to the Super Bowl this year, but instead,
they are looking up to two other teams in their own division.
While their offense has continued to deliver, their defense
has played at least as bad as last year. Their defense
is ranked 26th in the league. But, this team can score.
They're putting up over 28 points per game and they have
gained more
offensive yards than any team in the leauge. The
Patriots remain middle-of-the-road from a statistical perspective
but they continue to just win games. Can the Patriots waltz
into Arrowhead and beat a Priest-less Chiefs team with
their back against the wall?
Matchup
On
the surface, things don't look good for KC. They are struggling
this year and the best part of their team - Priest Holmes
- is out. But this is Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night.
It's going to be hellish for New England. Derrick Blaylock
has proven to be a very capable replacement for Holmes.
Last week he put up 186 yards agains the Saints. Priest
is awesome but as is the case in Denver, a lot of the credit
for this running game goes to the system and offensive
line. Both of the latter will be showing up tonight. The
Chiefs are not mathmatically eliminated yet from the playoffs.
They will show up tonight. New England's got some serious
injury problems in the secodary. You know you're in trouble
when you have to put a receiver in at cornerback on nickle
and dime defenses. That bodes well for Trent Green and
Tony Gonzalez. New England is by far the better team but
I like the situation
here
with KC getting points at home.
Injuries
The Chiefs
don't have Priest Holmes. New England is without cornerbacks
Ty Law and Tyrone Poole.
Systems/Trends/Angles
Road
favorites after outrushing their opponents by 100+ yards
are just 30-68 ATS the spread. Monday night home underdogs
that have rushed the ball very well recently against a
team that has given up a lot on the ground over the past
three games cover the spread over 85% of the time.
The
Bottom Line
We're
getting nice line value here based on New England's performance
last week. While favorites, and as
a result, John Q. Bettor have been having a ton of success
this NFL season, I'm going to stick with what I think is
the right call here and count on things returning somewhat
to "normal" from an underdog/favorite perspective. We
rarely get points with the Chiefs at home as they have
the best home field advantage in the league
and possibly in all of sports. On Monday night, it should
be unbelievably loud and tough for the Patriots. This is
a matchup of excellent defense vs. a great offense. KC
typically does well in these situations as they are 6-1
ATS over the past three years when playing teams that give
up 17 or fewer points per game. The Pats are great at home
and on the road but there is a difference. They are actually
allowing over 21 points per game away from Foxboro this
year. KC is scoring nearly 35 at home. In Kansas City's
last two home games, they have won by an average score
of 56 to 23. I like KC to keep it close here and cover
the spread.
***Kansas
City +3 (-110) vs. New England (risk -165 to win 150)
*Kansas City straight-up (+150) vs. New England (risk
50 to win 75)
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