|
2004 NFL - Week
11
!NUMBER_OF_SUBSCRIBERS!
|
!NAME_COMMA!
 Week
10 Wrap-up
Week was a losing week for us. Chicago's upset
win was the bright spot but the other big picks (NYJ, TB
and DAL) lost. I'm dissapointed in the Dallas pick as they
were clearly overmatched. The fact that they lost the turnover
battle in a big way didn't help and I was wrong about Dallas
showing some pride and emotion. I am in shock that Parcells
hasn't been able to right that ship.
OK,
I have to weigh in on the ABC Monday Night pre-game skit
involving Terrell Owens and Nicolette Sheridan. For those
of you who were offended, I am truly sorry. But, I personallys
don't understand what the big stink is all about. ABC was
promoting
a risque show. Of course the skit would match that feel.
Do
you think
they'd
promote
that show with something non-sex related? If so, you don't
watch the show. That show is all about women seeking out
their next guy. Sheridan's character is exactly like that.
Marketing is about promoting what you are selling. If they
are going to promote that show, that's exactly what the skit
would have to be like. And was it
racist?
I don't
think so. They picked Philly's highest profile, most
popular player who happened to be African American.
They picked one of the show's stars who happened to
be caucasion. There was no racist pre-planning there. Who
cares that they weren't the same race? If you try, you can
turn any situation or interchange into a racist one. I believe
(and I am just one opinion) that this was just the way
it fell out here, based on the team that was
playing and the show that was being promoted. Nothing more.
That's my two cents, for what it's worth (not much, I know).
Week
11 Picks
I've got three strong picks this Sunday. I'm also going to
have a strong pick for Monday night.
You
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
|
Wow.
The Rams beat up on the Seahawks last week. Pretty
impressive. Yes, it was. But as I've written here
several times, the 'Hawks are overrated. I give
St. Louis credit for that win but they are not
the best team in this week's matchup. Buffalo,
after starting poorly, has become a respectable
offensive team behind the legs of Willis McGahee.
And, they have an awesome defense. Everyone and
their mother was on the Seahawks last week and
they saw St. Louis win in easy fashion. This, combined
with Buffalo's crushing at the hands of the
Patriots last week
sets
us up nicely for this pick today. That Buffalo
loss was to
the best team in the league. Don't read too much
into it. To be getting points here at home is a
nice blessing. St. Louis
will be playing outside in November on grass. Not
a good combination for them. Also, St. Louis has
been known to underperform late in the season.
In fact, over the past three seasons, the Rams
are 1-7 ATS against teams with losing records.
They are also 3-10 ATS as road favorites over the
same time span. Winning teams coming off home upset
wins over division opponents
follow
those games up with ATS losses about 70% of the
time as the public overreacts to that big surprising
win. The public is wrong on this one as Buffalo
should be favored. Grab the favor and take the
better team as a home dog. Bet 220 to win 200
on Buffalo. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
The
public continues to think this is the Tennessee
Titans of old. They are not. Ladies and Gentlemen,
the Titans are 3-6 SU and 3-6 ATS. Against
winning teams this year Tennessee is 1-4
SU and ATS.
They are
playing a playoff contender here on the road
and only getting three points. McNair should
be back but the Titans are bad with him,
too. In the games in which he's played, McNair
threw for only 150 yards per game and more
interceptions than touchdowns. The bigger
injury problem or Tennessee is Chris Brown.
He's likely to miss this one and he's by
far the best part about the Titan offense.
Last week he played hobbled and gained only
62 yards in an upset loss to the Bears. Further
on the injury front, Tennessee is without
their starting strong safety, let tacked
and defensive tackle. Normally I don't read
too much into injuries but Tennessee is bad
when healthy and these injuries put this
game over the top for me. Jacksonville backup
David Garrard is doing just fine. Last week
he lead his team to a victory in his first
start, throwing two touchdowns. Sunday home
favorites of 3 or less follwing a win
in
which they emphasized the run a
lot
more
than normal are an amazing 18-1 ATS against
conference opponents the next week. Bet 165
to win 150 on Jacksonville minus the points. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
***NY
GIANTS +3 (-110) vs.
Atlanta (Check
latest line)
***NY Giants straight-up
(+135) vs. Atlanta
Two
of the NFL's future potential
hall-of-fame quarterbacks
matchup in the Big Apple
as Eli Manning faces Michael
Vick. After a promising
start, the Giants have
stumbled their way to 5-4
after losing 3 of their
last 4 games. The G-Men
have lost games as a favorite
of -2, -6.5 and -9. No
wonder they are getting
points today. New York
is 4-1 ATS as an underdog
this season. Atlanta has
impressed with aggressive
defense. The Falcons have
27 sacks and their defense
was the reason they won
big last week. The big
question is whether the
rookie can survive against
this defense. Will Manning
be another Ben Rothleisberger
and defy the rookie jitters?
I doubt he'll do that good.
But, I think he'll do well
enough. He's been chomping
at the bit for his shot
and he was nothing less
than amazing in college
and he played solid during
the preseason. Three are
three primary reasons why
I think he'll lead the
Giants to a victory here
and none of them have to
do with his last name.
First, he's got a guy named
Tiki Barber, to take some
of the pressure off. Tiki'll
go over 1000 yards on Sunday
and he's alrady got 9 touchdowns.
Second, the Giants have
a very good defense (ranked
8th in the league) which
should mean Manning won't
have to score tons of points
in this one. And third,
the Falcon's pass defense
is bad - ranked 28th in
the league. The Falcons "D" has
allowed a 67% completion
percentage to opposing
quarterbacks! If he can
avoid the sacks, he'll
do just fine. Despite Atlanta's
strong play of late and
New York's fall from grace,
my statistical analysis
tells me that New York
is the better team. They've
fallen victim to some bad
luck and a fumbling quarterback.
Road favorites that are
outrushing their opponents
by 40 or more yards/game
on the season, after a
game in which they outrushed
their opponets by 100+
yards are an incredible
37-7 ATS. Take the home
puppy here against the "comfortable" team
off a big divisional win.
Bet 165 to win 150 on
the Giants plus the points
and another 150 to win
203 on the G-Men straight-up.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Worth
a Look
The following games were close for me but didn't quite
make it as official picks. If you happen to like them
on your own, they may be worth a look:
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations
on betting amounts.
|
Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for
each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed
to be an even $5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll.
|
To
stop receiving this or add yourself to other sports picks
newsletters, change your email preferences or view your account
and order history, visit the subscription
management page.
|
The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
NFL Picks from
freeunderdog.com
877.DOG.WINS |
 |
