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2004 NFL - Week
10
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!NAME_COMMA!
 Winning
Week 9 (67% winning weeks to-date in 2004)
Last week we went 3-1 ATS (10-5 on a star basis
for +225 units) and 1-1 on the MoneyLine (3-3 on a star
basis for +75 units). Overall a +300 unit weekend. Pittsburgh,
Washington and Minnesota were the winners while Cleveland
lost. Glad to bounce back nicely after a couple of down
weeks. Overall we've won 6 out of the 9 regular season
weeks - hopefully 7 out of 10 after this weekend.
Week
10 Picks
I've got five primary picks (2+ stars) and four one-star selections
this Sunday.
You
can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!
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Indianapolis'
offense, and more specifically Peyton Manning,
is on fire. They are gaining over 418 yards per
game.
But, their defense is allowing 417 per game. Opposing
quarterbacks are completing passes at a 71% clip.
How can you lay 9 points on a team with a defense
that is THAT bad? Houston is still not getting
the respect they deserve. They are 4-4 SU and 4-4
ATS
including 2-1 against the number in games in which
they are getting over 6 points. Don't read too
much into Indianapolis' respectable defensive performance
last week. The Vikings were without their top receiver
and top running back and the Colts still failed
to cover the spread at home on Monday night. The
Texans
are off a beating from the Denver Broncos. Again,
don't read too much into that one either. The Texans
had a team-record 109 yards in penalties and fell
behind big early. It happens. In their other seven
games, the Texans have outscored their opponents
on average. I look at the loss to Denver as somewhat
of a fluke and not representative of what this
Texan
squad
is
all about. Houston's 5th-ranked passing offense
should shred Indianapolis' pass defense, which
is dead last
in the league. Manning will also have a huge day
but I think the Texans keep this one closer than
nine. Over the past three seasons, Houston is 6-1
ATS in road games after a loss by 10+ points. Underdogs
off a large loss when playing a team that has allowed
tons of points for multiple weeks cover at a clip
of about 67%. Two stars here on the Texans. Bet
110 to win 100 on Houston +9. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Minnesota's
on a bit of a slide. They've followed a four-game
win-streak with two straight losses. Green
Bay, on the other hand, has reeled off three
straight decisive wins after starting the
season 1-4. But I'm not overly impressed
with those wins. They came against three
teams (Detroit, Dallas and Washington) that
have a combined record of 10-14. In fact,
Green Bay's entire schedule has been one
of the weakest in the league as they've also
played Carolina, Chicago and Tenneesse. Minnesota,
even without Moss for the past few weeks,
still has the top-rated offense in the game.
And, they'll have starting RB Melwelde Moore
back from injury this week. Green Bay is
just 1-5 ATS at home vs. good rushing teams
(>4.5 yards per carry) over the past three
seasons. Underdogs that average 5+ yards
per carry cover the spread nearly 7 out of
10 times in the NFL. I expect a bounce-back
of sorts from the Vikings in this one and
I expect them to keep it close. Bet 110 to
win 100 on the Vikings. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
***NY
JETS +2 (-110) vs. Baltimore (Check
latest line)
Quarterback
Quincy Carter was "replaced" this
year in
Dallas by Vinny Testaverde. In a way, Carter
gets
a shot at
showing the league that it was a mistake. He'll
try to do what Vinny couldn't do last year
- lead the Jets to success after the loss of
Chad Pennington. Yes,
Pennington is out. Does that mean the
Jets should be getting points at home agains
the Ravens? No way. Carter played 16 games
for the Cowboys last year and they were 10-6.
This
year without
him, they are 3-5. Hmmmm. No, I am not a huge
Carter fan - really. But, I do think there's
a ton of value on the Jets here in this game.
But enough about the quarterbacks. Let's talk
Curtis Martin. Actually no need. You know all
about this guy who is having a career year
and is second in the league in rushing. I have
said NY is overrated and in general, they
are.
That's
one reason
I released a "lean" on the Bills last week.
But, they are not overrated in this one. In
fact,
it's
their opponent that
is a bit overrated. Balto is 5-3 but I'm just
not a big believer yet. Their defense is very
good
but I think they're schedule has been pretty
weak, including games against Cincinnati, Washington,
Buffalo and Kansas City (when they were playing
very poorly). I just can't back a team with
an offense this bad on the road as a favorite.
They are ranked last in the league in pass
offense and total offense. They'll be facing
a Jets defense that's 11th in the league and
solid against both the run and the pass. Baltimore
is 2-2 on the road and scoring just 13 points
per game. I think the Jets can score more than
that. Nice value here due to the loss of Pennington
and
Baltimore's recent apparent good performance.
Home underdogs
off
4
straight
ATS
wins are 24% ATS including 0-2 so far this
year. Bet 165 to win 150 on the NY Jets plus
the points. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
****Tampa
Bay +3.5 (-110) at ATLANTA (Check
latest line)
**Tampa
Bay straight-up (+155) at ATLANTA
Wait
a minute. Wasn't Tampa Bay done? They started
0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS but have won 2 of
their last 3 in both categories since Brian
Griese took over at QB. During that span,
they are scoring almost 25 points per game.
The single ATS loss was by just 1/2 a
point. Atlanta's
getting too much credit here based on a
big win before their bye. Look past that
win against Denver and remember their 56-10
thrashing at the
hands of the Chiefs. If you can't score
more than 10 points against Kansas City,
that's cause for major concern in my book.
It seems like the public has forgotten
that the
Falcons have the 29th ranked defense and
outside of a game or two, Mike Vick has
been mediocre at best. And in that win
over Denver, they allowed Jake Plummer
to throw for 499 yards. We all know about
Tampa's defense. It's again
one of
the
best in the league. But their offense has
been ressurected in a way with the insertion
of Brian Griese who is playing very well
and owns the league's 4th best passer rating.
Small visiting dogs when facing a team
that has gotten torched two weeks in a
row are 66% ATS including 4-1 this year.
Also, divisional road dogs of less than
7 when playing a team off a bye hit at
about 75% ATS. Bet 220 to win 200 on Tampa
Bay plus the points and another 100 to
win 155 on the Bucs to win the game outright.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
****Chicago
+6 (-110) at TENNESSEE (Check
latest line)
**Chicago
straight-up (+200) at TENNESSEE
Craig
Krenzel knew how to win at Ohio State.
He's doing it again in the NFL. He's
2-0 including an impressive road win
agains
the Giants
last week. He's not going to break any
records (his stats are weak) but he's
making good decisions and not losing
ball games. He's contributing points
and leaving the bulk of the work to Anthony
Thomas. The Bears defense is ranked 9th
in the league. Steve McNair just isn't
his old self. He's
thrown
nearly
as many
interceptions
this season in six games than he throw
all of last season. I don't care much
if he plays or not. Tennesse is just
not very good this year. I like the better
defense with the momentum here. Bet 220
to win 200 on Chicago +6 and 100 to win
200 on the Bears straight-up. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
The
following games are all one-star picks ATS (bet
55 to win 50):
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
NFL Picks from
freeunderdog.com
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