Update: After further analysis I am making a few changes. This newsletter supercedes the previous version. I have removed Dallas as a selection and added Miami and Denver.

The last week of the preseason was good to us as I went 5-1 ATS and 0-1 on my one money-line selection. Overall 5-2 for +300 units. View my previous picks here.

The first week of the regular season is always a difficult one to handicap but I definitely think there are a few games that are worth a serious look. Last year I started the regular season with a 3-1 ATS mark in week one so hopeully my week one luck will continue this year.

Will Mike Vick be ready? His very limited action in the preseason is a major red flag for me. Vick threw a total of 12 passes during the preseason. Yes, he is superman but even superman has his days off. This is a good example of public perception affecting a spread. Everyone loves Vick and everyone thinks San Francisco is going to be horrible this year. As a result, we get a home underdog of over a field goal - I love it! Why else do I like this game? Jim Mora, Jr. in his NFL regular season debut and playing under a fired-up hostile crowd is going to feel a little like a fish out of water. Atlanta has to travel cross-country for this one, too. Let us not forget Altanta had the worst defense in the league last year - dead last! Dogs that were winless in the preseason win about 7 out of 10 ATS in their opening games. Atlanta is 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to San Francisco. Two units on the Niners +3.5 and two more units on San Francisco to win outright.

Miami +3 (-110) over Tennessee

Miami certainly has its problem late season but no so early on. Yes, they lost Ricky Williams but they still have a great defense, won 10 games last year, and here are playing the great role of home dog. Home teams in a dog or small favorite role fare very well in week one when facing a team that won a lot (11+) games the prior season. It's yet to be seen what impact the loss of Eddie George will have on the Titans. Yes, his production was down but he provided stability and leadership. The Titans also lost Jevon Kearse and Justin McCareins and Frank Wycheck - three big impact players. Tennessee won a lot more games last year than most people, including me thought they would. The loss of these players could spell the difference between a 12-4 season and a 9-7 one. With the move of this game to Saturday, we basically get a Monday-night type atmosphere with national attention. This bodes well for the home team. Two units on Miami +3.

San Diego +5 (-110) over Houston
San Diego straight-up (+190) over Atlanta

Both of these teams had their problems last year but Houston shouldn't be laying 5 points. People are excited about Houston due to Andre Johnson and Domanick Davis' performances last year. Many expect Carr to have a breakout season. But I say, prove it! I don't like laying 5 points on expectations. LaDanian Tomlinson is still one of the league's best backs and Drew Brees had an excellent preseason. I like the value in this one. One unit on SD +5 and one unit on SD to win.

Denver -3 (-110) over Kansas City