North
Texas won its fourth straight Sun Belt crown while
Southern Miss finished second to Louisville in
Conference USA this season. North Texas has seen its
share of adversity this season, losing their starting
quarterback to a tragic automobile accident this
summer. They are lead by freshman running back
Jamario Thomas who had a monster rookie season. North
Texas will need to run the football effectively to
have a chance in this game.
Southern
Miss nearly upset the Cal Golden Bears in its
final game just ten days ago. Southern Miss is 13-2
ATS after playing 2 straight games as
an
underdog since 1992. The Eagles are led
by QB Dustin Almond, and have a very balanced,
effective offense. Southern Miss is 23-8 ATS when
they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992.
The defense has not
been as stout as in past seasons.
In
looking at this game, SOS or strength of schedule
is an important factor. North Texas has really
struggled against the major conference teams they have
faced this season, getting pasted by Colorado, Texas,
and
Baylor.
Southern
Miss, on the other hand, has faced many strong teams
this season and nearly beat Cal, who is as good as
anyone in the country, on its home field.
The timing of this game favors the Eagles here as
well, as they should not have many kinks having played
less than two weeks ago. Underdogs at 60-75% SU getting
3.5 to 10 points after 2 or more
consecutive wins against the spread are 77-38 (67%)
over the last 10 seasons.
The
bottom line here is that Southern Miss may be too
talented for North Texas. Southern Miss will load the
box to stop Thomas. If they are successful, it will
be a long night for the Eagles of NT. I expect a
tough grind it out game early on, but Southern Miss
should pull away for the W and cover late. Two star
pick: Southern Miss. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
New
Orleans Bowl