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2004 College
Football - Bowls Part 3 of 4
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!NAME_COMMA!
Happy
New Year to you and your families!
 Bowling
to a 12-4 ATS record so far
So
far we are hitting 75% ATS on the bowl
selections
and
0-1
on the money-line. You
can
view
my
prior
picks here.
This
newsletter covers the ten bowl games between the December
31st and New Years Day:
Music
City -
Alabama vs. Minnesota (12/31)
Sun - Arizona State vs. Purdue
(12/31)
Liberty - Boise State vs. Louisville
(12/31)
Peach - Florida vs. Miami
(12/31)
Cotton - Texas A&M vs. Tennessee
(1/1)
Outback - Georgia vs. Wisconsin
(1/1)
Gator - Florida State vs.
West Virginia (1/1)
Capitol One - Iowa vs. LSU (1/1)
Rose - Michigan vs. Texas (1/1)
Fiesta - Pittsburgh vs.
Utah (1/1)
Line
Updates on Thursday Bowl Games
There are four games that I've already picked for Thursday.
Some of the lines have moved. Here's a recap of the picks with
updated lines:
*North
Carolina -1.5 vs. Boston College
**Navy
+3 vs. New Mexico
**Texas
Tech / California OVER 64.5 vs. California
*Northern
Illinois +2.5 vs. Troy State
Check
latest lines
I'll
be sending out the final bowl newsletter, covering
the Sugar and Orange Bowls this weekend by Sunday morning.
Good
luck this week!COMMA_NAME!!
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Bama
comes into this one with the best
defense in the country and thrives on
stuffing opposing offenses. They stymied Auburn
for long stretches in the
rivalry game in November and should be able to
put a
clamp on the vaunted UM tailback duo. Not good
for Minnesota given their inability to move the
ball through the air. Minnesota owns the 112th-ranked
passing defense while Alabama led the nation
in this category, giving up just 116.5 yards
per game through the air. Minnesota is 6-1 UNDER
in road games when they gain 150 or less net
passing
yards since 1992 while Alabama is 14-4 UNDER
when their defense allows 100 to
150 net passing yards over the same span. The
Tide offense is pretty bad, too which makes the
under
a nice
play here.
This one has all the makings of a defensive struggle.
Games in which the total is between 42.5 and
49 feature a team off a game in which they gained
2 or less rushing yards/attempt
(Bama) have gone under 70 out of 108 times
over the last 5 Seasons. The Gophers are 1-7
ATS versus good defensive teams
(allowing <4.5
yards/play) and 1-7 vs. teams that give up under
17 points per game over the last 3 seasons. They
are also just 2-10 ATS vs. winning teams. The
Alabama faithful are travelling down to Nashville
in
droves for
this one. Two star pick on the defensive power
that is the Tide and one star on the under here
as
well. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
This
game would have attracted every NFL scout alive
if Walters were healthy. He is not, and as a result,
some of the luster comes off of this match-up.
Sam Keller,
a
highly touted QB out of high school will make his
first start for the Sun Devils here. Kyle Orton
finishes his brilliant career for Joe Tiller at
Purdue. Love the senior angle once again here. Orton
will go out with a huge bang as ASU struggles
defending the pass giving up 230 YPG and a 55%
completion rate. Purdue is 7-0 ATS off
a
home win against a conference rival over the last
3
seasons. ASU would have a tough time here with a
healthy Walters. ASU is 3-10 ATS in
road games
off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. Without
him, this will be too steep. Three units on
Orton and Purdue to go out with another bang. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
**Boise
State +12.5 vs. Louisville (Check
latest line)
**Boise State/Louisville OVER 79
This
could very well be the second best match-up of
the bowl season this year. Petrino and star QB
LeFors
face
off with Dan Hawkins and his young blossoming QB
Zabransky. These two explosive offenses will light
up
the scoreboard throughout. Louisville, however, has
one of the most complete football teams in the country
and should get a win here. Boise will not go away
in this one however. Boise State is undefeated this
year and can hold their own in shootouts. The Broncos
are 15-2 ATS versus good offensive teams (averaging >425
yards/game) since 1992. The Smurf-Turf Boys are also
16-4 ATS when playing against a team
with
a winning record over the same period, beating
those teams by an average of 15 points per game.
Do not miss this game. Both teams will methodically
move
the football through the air. Louisville thrives
on
special teams but will be facing a team that is more
talented and confident than anyone they have played
in
some time. Petrino is now in the middle of the LSU
rumor mill which will not serve the Cards well here.
We side with Boise and over 79 points for two stars
apiece. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
**Florida
+3.5 vs. Miami Florida (Check
latest line)
*Florida straight-up (+135) vs. Miami
Florida
A
great sunshine state match-up. The
key
here will be the Miami defense and its ability to
stop
Fason and Leak of the Gators. Miami's defense
faltered late in the season costing them the ACC
Championship and the BCS berth. Miami is 1-5 ATS
off an upset loss to a conference rival
as a favorite of 6 or more since 1992.
They are also 1-5 ATS when
playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last
3 seasons.
There is currently a great deal of
excitement surrounding the Florida football factory
with the arrival of Urban Meyer from Utah. Besides
all of the excitement, there is a great deal of talent
on the Gator team on both sides of the football.
They
often say that bowl games are the first game of the
following season. Expect Florida to come out and
win this game on pure emotion. After all, they'll
likely be my
preseason pick to win the National Championship next
season. Two star pick on Florida plus the points
and another one-star on Florida to win the game
outright in an upset. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Wisconsin
finished the season on a down note after
starting 9-0. They depend on the Anthony Davis on
offense and a stout defense to win ballgames. They'll
run into some problems here, as the Bulldog defense
is
HUGE and very very quick. Wisconsin should have a
tough time moving the football in this game. This
game is also the senior swan song for the ballyhooed
buds from Georgia, Greene and Pollack. This will
give their team an emotional boost. Georgia is
11-2 ATS in road games vs. excellent ball
control teams (32 or more possession minutes/game)
since 1992. The Dawgs are also 14-3 ATS
in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
The seniors will ride their emotional high to a
big victory here. Georgia for two stars on
New Years Day. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
*Texas
A&M -3.5 vs. Tennessee (Check
latest line)
Not
much to go on here but Tennessee backed into the
SEC title game this season and lost their starting
QB
in Ainge for the season. The Aggies are essentially
playing a home game here and are thrilled to be in
the
Cotton Bowl. They would have been bumped to the Alamo
if Texas were not selected for the Rose Bowl berth.
A&M was playing its best football at the end of
the
season and it should outlast the Vols in this 'home'
game. One star pick on A&M here minus the points.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
This
game matches two teams that might have been the
most overrated schools in the country heading into
this season. Chris Rix fell flat on his face once
again for the Seminoles. You'd struggle to find
another college quarterback with so much promise
who
did so little
with it. FSU is still a talented football team
but
they have lost much of their luster recently. They
will most likely not be overly motivated in this
football game. WVU, on the other hand is thrilled
to
be here and playing against a quality opponent.
FSU
is only 1-5 ATS in road games vs.
good
passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or
better
over the last 3 seasons and 1-8 ATS in
road games off one or more consecutive unders over
the
last 3 seasons. Let us not forget that although
the Mountaineers struggled some late in the season,
they are a very talented football team. One star
on
WVU plus the big points here. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Nick
Saban will coach his final game for the Tigers
here which makes this game more interesting. Saban
had a chance, if he stayed put, to build a dynasty.
He instead opted to step up to the NFL and take
over as coach and GM of the Fins. Not so sure
he won't end up just like Butch
Davis in
Cleveland. He made a huge mistake in my opinion.
One thing is for sure - it will affect his team
in this game - and not in a good way. This will
give Iowa a shot to pull off a big upset. Iowa's
20-4 conference mark the last three years matches
Michigan for
the
best
in
the Big
Ten during
that span. The Hawkeyes finish strong, going 13-4
ATS in the second half of the season over the
last 3 seasons.
Iowa can also get and stay on a role. They are 14-3 ATS after covering
the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
over the
last 3 seasons.There is not a better coach in all the land
than Ferentz who's bunch has traditionally thrived in
the underdog role. The circus surrounding LSU right
now may be too great for them to produce an optimal
performance here. Two stars on the Hawkeyes plus the points and another one star
on them to pull off the upset win. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
The
Wolverines struggled against the run late in
the
season, stumbling to the finish by getting pummeled
by
Ohio State in the season finale. They have had
trouble against balanced offenses. Lucky for them,
they are playing Texas here. While Young is
talented with his feet and Cedric Benson may be
the
best running back the Wolverines have faced, the
Longhorns are not balanced whatsoever. They will
line
up and pound it right at you. Underdogs
of
3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss
to a
conference rival as a favorite facing an opponent
off 2
straight wins against conference rivals are an
amazing 26-6 over the last five seasons for 81%.
Texas is 2-10 ATS in road games
after 5 or
more
consecutive straight up wins since 1992. This game
has the makings of a classic. Both teams will
line up and
pound
each other. Edwards and Benson, two young men who
will be high first-round NFL draft choices come
May,
will battle it out. Me thinks this one will come
down to the
fourth quarter. I like the underdog in what I think
will be a tight battle. UT is strong but Michigan
will give them everything they can handle. Thus, Michigan
for two stars at +7 and one-star on them to make
it an upset win. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Do
not get me wrong, Utah has had a wonderful season
and I'll be blown away if they don't win this game.
But this spread is huge, all
things being considered. We all understand why
Urban
Meyer would leave the Utes for greener pastures
in
Gainesville, but does everyone in the Ute locker
room
feel good about this? Walt
Harris, on
the other hand, was essentially shown the door
by the
Pitt administration. Pitt has over achieved all
season long and I expect them to here once again.
Utah has not
faced stiff competition in some time, and while
very
talented and very well coached, 16 points is too
many. Pitt is 8-1 ATS
vs. good
offensive teams (scoring 31 or more points/game)
over
the last 3 seasons. Utah will meet the true National
limelight for the first time. They are 1-5 ATS
in road games after scoring 31 points
or
more
in 3 straight games since 1992.
Utah will get it done, but I don't think they
cover.
One star on Pitt plus the points in a shootout
in the Fiesta Bowl. In Utah's last three games,
240 points were scored. Pitt put up over 33 per
game in their last three. Games in which the total
is greater than or equal to
63 featuring a team that gained
6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
(Utah) against
opponent
that gained 6.75 or more yards/play in
their previous game (Pitt) have gone OVER 26-4
(87%) over the last 5 seasons. One star
star on the over. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations
on betting amounts.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for each
pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed to be an even
$5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation
that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given
game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent.
There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
College
Football Picks from freeunderdog.com
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