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2004 College
Football - Bowls Part 2 of 3
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!NAME_COMMA!
 Perfect
8-0 so far in 2004/2005 College Bowl Season
So far so good. Hard to believe but we're sitting at a pretty
8-0. So far they've played out exactly as expected. Hard to
expect that that kind of success will continue but we'll try
to keep it going as long as we can. You can view my prior
picks here.
This
newsletter covers the ten bowl games between the 27th and
30th:
MPC
Computers - Virginia vs. Fresno State (12/27)
Motor City - Connecticut vs. Toledo
(12/27)
Independence - Iowa State vs. Miami
of Ohio (12/28)
Insight - Notre Dame vs. Oregon State
(12/28)
Houston - UTEP vs. Colorado (12/29)
Alamo - Oklahoma State vs. Ohio State
(12/29)
Continental Tire - Boston College vs.
North Carolina (12/30)
Emerald - New Mexico vs. Navy (12/30)
Holiday - Texas Tech vs. California (12/30)
Silicon Valley - Northern Illinois vs.
Troy State (12/30)
I'll
be sending out the final bowl newsletter, covering
the final set of games from the 31st through the Orange
Bowl on January 4th.
Good
luck this week!COMMA_NAME!!
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Some
teams are undoubtedly upset about their bowl
destination. The Cavs headed into this season with
huge expectations. There was talk of an ACC
Championship and an abundance of returning talent.
The bottom line here is this team underacheived
in
2004. They lost two of their last three games leaving
them a dissapointing date with Fresno State in
a bowl game. Do not
be suprised if the Cavs do not show up here. Stopping
the run really comes down to heart. Fresno can
run
the ball very well, and the Cavs will have to stop
them if they are to cover this spread. Virginia
is
0-11 ATS in road games versus good
offensive teams (averaging >5.9 yards/play).
The Wahoos are also only
12-27 ATS in road games when playing
against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Fresno is playing in its "Super Bowl"
here and will do everything it can for the W. Two
star pick on Fresno State plus the points. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
This
will be an offensive battle featuring two of the
more unknown stellar college quarterbacks in the
country. The battle for the homeland features Dan
Orlovsky, and Bruce Gradkowski of Toledo. Gradkowski
has had a sick year (3,475 yards and 27 touchdowns).
Both QBs have been central to their teams success
this season
and
both should light up the scoreboard in this one.
The
Rockets are 15-1 ATS as a favorite
of
3.5 to 10 points since 1992 and 16-1 ATS
after game with a 71% or better completion pct.
(20 att minimum) over the last 3 seasons. In those
17 games, they won by an average of 17 points per
game. UCONN is a nice story and has had a good
year but the
MAC will flex its
bowl
muscles once again here. Favorites of of 3.5 to 10
points vs. an opponenent an opponent at 60%-75%
ATS off 2+ consecutive wins
against the spread are a nice 78-38 (67%) over
the last 10 seasons. Keep in mind
that both of these QB's are seniors and will be playing
in their
last game. The scoreboard will light up here. Games
with a total between 63.5 and 70 featuring a team
off a game where 60 total points (UCONN) or
more
were scored facing an opponent after 2 straight
games where 60 total points or more were scored
(Toledo) go OVER the total 81% of the time (25-6
since 1992). Two units on the Rockets of Toledo
here,
and two
units
over 67. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Ah,
the Big 12 North, by far the worst division in
major college football this season. It will rear
its
ugly head once again this bowl season, as
Colorado and Iowa State play mid major teams that
can,
and probably will, beat them outright. The oddsmakers
got this one right but MOH should be favored more
heavily here. Miami has a very dangerous offense
that will give the
Cyc's
defense
fits. ISU has been good against the run but has not
played a QB as talented as Josh Betts in some time.
ISU is 0-9 ATS vs. good passing teams
averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3
seasons. In those games, the Cyclones got hammered by an average score of 10
to 43! Iowa State is also 2-9
ATS
in
road
games
when
playing against a team with a winning record over the
last 3 seasons. The Cyclones did improve this
past season, but they do not have the offensive horses
to keep up with the Redskins here. ISU is outclassed. Four stars on
Miami of Ohio to cover this one. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Notre
Dame comes into this one after losing their head
coach to a bogus firing and their last two games
in
blowout fashion. One has to wonder if they'll show
up
in this one.
Willingham's staff will coach the team here and
frankly, there's
not
much
motivating
anyone
on the Irish sideline in this tilt. The Irish are
1-7 ATS versus good defensive teams
(those allowing <4.5 yards/play) over the last
3 seasons. The Beavers are 16-5 ATSafter gaining
325 or more passing yards in last
game since 1992. The Beavers diversified attack will
be too
much for the Irish here. Notre Dame is still in the
midst of picking up the pieces from an already too
difficult off-season. This game will be salt in the
wounds as Oregon State will be too fast and talented
for the Irish. One star pick on the Beavers here. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Interesting
matchup between two programs that virtually no
one though would be bowling. There have been some
intriguing names thrown around about this game that
pits Mike Price and Gary Barnett against one another.
UTEP has a huge advantage in terms of ability to
move the ball on offense and hold down the opposition
on defense. However, this game could very well
come down to turnovers. Colorado
has
been
horrible
against
the
pass,
and Price will spread you out and chuck it all over
the field. UTEP may have a tough time with Colorado
up front, but Colorado will have to run the ball
effectively to even win here. They have been too
inconsistent all season long, and could easily have
lost three games that they won. UTEP is 10-1 ATSwhen
playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct.
51% to 60%) since 1992. The Miners have superior
motivation here, and Carson Palmer's younger brother
will carve up Colorado in a big way. UTEP in a very
close game. Two stars on the Miners in this one
plus the points and one star on them to win the
game outright. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
***Ohio
State +2 vs. Oklahoma State (Check
latest line)
**Under 49.5
Lots
of folks, me included, were wondering why
Tressell had not played Smith more leading up to the
last five games of the season. Well,
they'll need to
get it done here without him. Justin Zwick gets the
nod. He struggled early on but should have
benefited from watching Smith excel with the offense.
Ted Ginn is a stud and will be the best player on the
field. Oklahoma State will sorely miss Durrant
Williams on defense in the secondary. The Cowboys
will only go as far as Morrency takes them on offense,
and the Buckeyes are tremendous against the run.
Something must give in this one. Consider that the
Buckeyes are 18-5 ATS versus excellent
rushing teams (averaging 230+ rushing yards/game)
since 1992. The Buckeyes spoiled the party for another
overrated Big 12 team last season in the Fiesta Bowl.
It will happen again here. This game will be a
struggle for both offenses as well. Both teams will
look to establish the run here and both teams have
strong front seven's. Oklahoma State is 5-1 UNDER
in road games when playing with 2 weeks
or more of rest since 1992. Ohio
State plus the points for three stars and the cover.
Also go with a two star pick on the under in this tilt. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
This
amounts to a home game for the Tar Heels as they
get a team from the overrated and horrible Big
East.
Case in point: Georgia Tech flexed their muscles
the other night against Syracuse. I like the
Tar
Heels
in
this spot.
No
team was playing better football than the NC
at
the end of the season as they beat Miami, and nearly
did the same to the Hokies of Va Tech one week
later.
They closed out their season with wins over Duke
and
Wake. BC, as previously noted, plays in the strange
Big East and choked away a chance at a BCS birth
against Syracuse at home. NC's defense is bad but
their offense is smokin' and should be able to
score enough to win this game. It is very doubtful
that the Eagles will be elated to be
here, and
are playing
a hot team as well. One star on the ACC and the
Tar
Heels here. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Navy
has had a great season, and one result in
particular will give us some insight into how this
game might transpire. Back on October 9th, New
Mexico played Air Force, a
team that is very similar to Navy in all facets.
The Lobos lost the game outright. In that game,
Air Force was able to pound out 190 yards on
the
ground
and
233
in
the air.
This
could spell trouble for New Mexico which prides
itself
on its defense. If Navy is able to run the football
with success and draw up UNM's linebackers, it
will
open up Navy's play action passing attack. This
will
enable Navy to reach the ten win plateau for the
first
time since 1905. The Midshipmen are 29-10 ATS
after out-rushing opponent by 150 or more yards
last
game since 1992. They also finish very strong as
they are 41-22 ATS in the second half of
the season since
1992.
I'll side with the
Midshipmen here for two stars. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
I
don't like either side in this game very much
at all. This seems like a lot
of points for a
team that should be playing in a much better bowl
game. Hard to tell which Cal team will show up.
Clearly Cal is the better squad and should rout
here but I'm not ready to back the Bears.
Texas Tech is 12-1 ATS versus
excellent
rushing
defenses
(allowing <90
rushing yards/game) and 10-1 ATS in
road games versus excellent rushing teams (averaging >230
rushing yards/game) since 1992. Cal might be a
bit flat, as well, playing in a lesser bowl than
they were hoping for. Instead, we'll focus on the
total in this game. It opened
at 68
and has dropped three points. Obviously a lot of
folks jumped on the UNDER. Not me. Games
featuring a total of 63+ and a team with an
incredible offense (450+ total yards/game) following
a game in which they gained 6.25+ yards/play have
gone OVER at a clip of 29-14 (67%) over the last
5 seasons. Also, games in which the total is between
63.5 and 70 and feature a team being outrushed
by their opponents by 60+ yards/game have gone
OVER 27-10 (73%) since 1992. Cal should score a
ton here. Texas Tech is 17-4 OVER when they allow
28 or more points and 9-0 OVERwhen
they allow 450 to 500 total yards over the last
3 seasons. Over the same time period, the Red Raiders
are 9-1 OVER when playing
against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). These
teams are averaging a combined 73 points per game.
Cal will score a lot and Texas Tech will get their
share. Two stars on the OVER. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Take
this game for what it's worth. This is the last
of the mid-tier teams that will play against one
another. UNI plays in the MAC which is
a
very good conference and should have prepared them
well here. Northern Illinois is 20-8 ATS vs. poor
passing defenses (those allowing a comp.
pct. of 58% or worse) since 1992. Troy State
has scored only 14 points per game on the road
this season, posting a 2-4 record. Their defense
has been the only saving grace but I think N.
Illinois' potent offense (37 PPG / 480 yards
on the road) will be able to score enough for
the win. Northern Illinois is on a 7-1 run
and
they are 8-1
ATS after
having won 4 out of their last 5 games over the
last 3 seasons. One
small star on N. Illinois here. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations
on betting amounts.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for each
pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed to be an even
$5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation
that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given
game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent.
There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
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