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2004 College
Football - Week 8
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!NAME_COMMA!
Last
week the big three-star pick, Texas A&M came through
in easy fashion but the remainder of my picks fell short.
Overall it was a 3-5 week on a star basis.
This
week I've got seven games including tonight's
Louisville/Miami matchup.
You
can view my 2004 College Football picks, past newsletters
and record here.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!

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Too
many points, sports betting fans. Louisville, ranked
18th in the country, may be the best team in the country
that no one knows about. The Cardinals know this is their
toughest test of the season and can be a statement game
for them. It's a game that can give them a shot at a
BCS bowl. Louisville is outscoring opponents by an obscene
173-28! They own the second best offense in the nation.
Miami does not get consistent play from their QB, Brock
Berlin, which will hurt their chances for the cover here
against the nation's third best scoring defense. Did
you know that Maimi is 1-5 ATS at home when facing a
team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons? And,
they are just 3-10 ATS as a home favorite over the last
3 seasons. Bob Petrino
will have his troops ready to roll in South Beach. Bet
110 to win 100 on Louisville +9. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Colorado
has been a mess the last two weeks, killing themselves
in both games. They will rebound here at home against
the worst team in the Big 12. James Cox gets the start
at QB for the Buffaloes. The youngster looked great
against the Cowboys last week, and should pick apart
the Cyclones in this one. Road underdogs of 3.5 to
10 points that are being outscored by opponents by
7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or
more in 2 straight games are just 8-25 over the last
5 seasons. Also, road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after
being outgained by 125 or more total yds 2 consecutive
games fail to cover the spread about 70% o the time
in their next game. The Cyclones are 1-11 ATS (-11.1
Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the
last 3 seasons. Bet 110 to win 100 on this one with
Colorado -10 points. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
*Virginia +3 (-110) at FLORIDA STATE (Check
latest line)
*Virginia straight-up (+130) at FLORIDA
STATE
The
Cavs are for real, my friends and FSU is not a good football
team. Al Groh has his sixth-ranked team and prized recruits
rocking right now, and they'll be fired up to show the
country that they're
for real. This line is skewed because Virginia is 1-11
all time against Florida State but this isn't your father's
Virigina team. This team has won 8 straight dating back
to last season. They are ranked 3rd in the nation in offense
and 7th in defense. Road teams at +3 to -3 with a turnover
margin of +1 /game or better on the season are an incredible
53-14 (79%) over the last 5 seasons. I like Virginia to
win this one outright. Bet 110 to win 100 at +3 and 50
to win 65 on Virigina straight-up (money-line). (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Classic
let down scenario for the Vols here. Tennessee beat Georgia
as a double-digit dog last week and as a result, they'll
have trouble getting up for this one. Ole Miss is not
an easy place to play and Tennessee still has two frosh
QB's. Ole Miss will be able to move the ball on UT's
defense. Tennessee should win here but the spread looks
a little high in reaction to last week's big Vol win.
Ole Miss can put up the points. They're averaging nearly
30 points per game over their last four. Road favorites
of 3.5 to 10 points that are outrushing their opponents
by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after a game
in which they ran for 75 yards or less fail to cover
the spread over 80% of the time in their next game. Also,
road teams off an upset win over a conference rival when
facing an opponent off a win against a conference rival
are just 42-81 over the past ten seasons. Bet 110 to
win 100 on this one with Miss +10. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
OSU
is the worst undefeated team in college football. Their
running game will be slowed by the A&M defense.
The OSU defense showed last week against Colorado
that they are vulnerable. Reggie McNeal will exploit
them all day long. A strong rushing offense beats a
good rushing defense in the NCAA. Road teams with gaining
190 to
230 rushing
yards per game when facing a team with a good rushing
defense (averaging 100-140 RY/game come out on top
to the tune of 60-27 ATS (69%). Texas A&M is 5-1
ATS (+3.9 Units) in road games off a double digit road
win since 1992. Take the points here: Bet 165 to win
150 on A&M with the points. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
***Wisconsin +7 (-110) at PURDUE (Check
latest line)
***Wisconsin straight-up (+240) at PURDUE
A
great Big Ten battle here. Last year in this matchup,
Wisconsin let a game in which they dominated slip away
by coughing up the ball four times. In that game, the
Badgers outgained the Boilermakers by almost 200 yards.
Wisconsin's defense is tough and Purdue's offense isn't
impressing. They put up only 20 points last week against
a week Penn State squad.
On top of that, Purdue has only played one quality
opponent. They are giving up 175 yards per game on
the ground. Wisconsin is very good on both sides of
the ball and will give the Boiler offense all they
can handle. They will control the clock as well with
their power running attack. The Badgers know how to
win on the road as they are 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units)
in road games in the first half of the season since
1992. Wisconsin should win this game outright on the
road, and take control of the Big Ten. This line is
a joke. Jump early. Bet 220 to win 200 on Wisconsin
+7 and 100 to win 240 on Wisconsin straight-up. (Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
www.freeunderdog.com
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