2004 College Football - Week 5

Hello College Football Handicapping Fans,

Last week was a nice one for us in college football. The complimentary pick, Maryland won at +6.5 (nearly won outright in OT) and the big 3-star Northwestern pick also won. Clemson was the sole loser. Overall 4-2 on a star basis for +180 units.

This weekend I've got three games again.

You can view my 2004 College Football picks, past newsletters and record here.

Good luck!

Michigan State -3 (-110) vs. Indiana (Check latest line | Bet this game)

Indiana came out of its shell to shock Oregon two weeks ago. They returned to earth last week, and we expect more of the same in their Big Ten opener. The Hoosiers are just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. Indiana is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored since 1992. Indian's allowing 28.3 points per game. If Michigan State can put up this many vs. the Hoosier's they should cover. Since 1992, Michigan State is 44-14 ATS when scoring 28+ and Indiana is 4-14 over the last three seasons when allowing 28+. One unit on the Spartans.

NC State +9.5 (-110) vs. Virigina Tech (Check latest line | Bet this game)

Too much respect for the Hokies here. They have played pretty well thus far, but who have they played after the first week? NC State is coming off a hard fought loss to Ohio State where they essentially gave the game away by turning the ball over. They still battled back and this Tech defensive backfield does not have the playmakers of past seasons. There is also no call for a Hurricane in this one. Virginia Tech is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) off a home win against a conference rival since 1992. Virginia Tech is 1-6 ATS (-5.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Tech is also only 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons. We're going with three units and the points here.

Washington +10.5 (-110) vs. Notre Dame (Check latest line | Bet this game)

This looks like the letdown game for the Irish. Coming off consecutive games against the Michigan powers, the Irish should be susceptible here. Ten+ points is a lot for the Irish ever. They just do not score a lot of points. One can argue that Notre Dame is the worst team that the Huskies have played thus far. This line is inflated due to the big Irish following and their exposure on NBC (stands for the Notredame Broadcasting Network). UW is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Watch this line. We're only going one unit, but if the Irish homers drive the line higher, you might consider making it a two unit play.

College Football Resources

I list a rating next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star = least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I weight each game based on these ratings.

1 Star = 100 unit bet, 4 stars = 400 unit bet

View a more detailed explanation of units and how I use and calculate them.
For beginners, this page will also lead you to a good description of the money-line.

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The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guarantees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk.

Good Luck!