Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
2004 College Football - Week 4
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Hello College Football Handicapping Fans,

Well last week we went 3-3 on picks (4-6 on star basis). A week that started nicely with Southern Miss winning outright as a two-touchdown dog didn't finish as nicely.

This weekend I've got three games.

You can view my 2004 College Football picks, past newsletters and record here.

Good luck!

The Wunderdog
Complimentary Picks

StarMaryland +6.5 (-110) vs. West Virginia (Check latest line | Bet this game) 

This should be a great game, and it is a huge one for the Mountaineers. This may be their biggest test this season and they may not have Kay Jay Harris in this one. Maryland routed the 'Neers twice last season and will keep this one closer than the odds makers think. Sure, W. Virginia is 2-0 but they've played lowly E. Carolina and Central Florida. They haven't faced the likes of a Maryland yet. West Virginia is 1-5 ATS (-4.5 Units) in home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. The Mountaineers are 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992. In the battle of strengths (rushing O/D), Maryland should come out ahead here. Road teams that are rushing for 190 to 230 yards per game against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game are 55-25 over the last 5 seasons.Maryland was responsible for two of West Virginia's five losses last season. Here's to more of the same. One unit on Maryland.
Premium Picks

StarStarStarNorthwestern -2.5 (-110) vs. Kansas  (Check latest line | Bet this game) 

The Big 12 has proved only one thing thus far this season. It, once again, looks like the most overrated conference in the land. It usually becomes clear in the Bowl Games, but that has not been the case this season, as Missouri, Kansas State and Nebraska all lost to Mid Major teams one week ago. Kanasas suprised us a bit by putting it on Toledo, but they are on the road for this one. NU stormed back against an improved ASU team before falling in the fourth quarter last week. This one should not be close. Kansas is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992. The Jay Hawks are also just 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992. In those 77 games, the average score was Kansas 18.2, Opp. 36.7. Three unis on the Wildcats in a rout.

StarStarClemson -1.5 (-110) vs. Texas A&M (Check latest line | Bet this game) 

See above comments about the Big 12. Clemson barely squeaked past Tech last weekend, but make no mistake, this is a very talented football team. Charlie Whitehurst may be the best quarterback the Aggies face all season. Texas A&M had a big shutout win last week which is one reason this line is under a field goal. But remember, that was against Wyoming. When A&M faced another ranked team in week one, they got spanked by the Utah Utes. A&M is a dismal 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after one or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Aggies are also 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. Clemson, with it's ACC-leading passing game should be able to rack up points against A&M. If Clemson scores 28 or more, they should win easily as A&M is 0-15 ATS over the last three seasons when allowing 28+. should be able to rack up some pointsTwo units on the Tigers of Clemson.

Resources

College Football Resources

Star Ratings Explained

I list a Star rating next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star = least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I weight each game based on these ratings.

 

1 Star = 100 unit bet, 4 stars = 400 unit bet

View a more detailed explanation of units and how I use and calculate them.
For beginners, this page will also lead you to a good description of the money-line.

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The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guarantees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk.

 

Good Luck!