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Hello
College Football Handicapping Fans,
Week one is upon us! I've got four picks including
tonight's ESPN game between Utah and Texas A&M.
Good luck!
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 Texas A&M +8.5 (-110) vs.
Utah
If you read my preview, you
know I like Utah's squad quite a bit, but this spread
puts us in a bind early. Eight and a half is
an awful lot for a team replacing its QB this early in
the college football season. It also seems like
too many considering the weapons the Aggies have returning. This
is a huge season for very talented Aggie QB Reggie McNeal. He
must step forward and lead the Aggies back to the top
in the Big 12. He has the talent to dominate this
football game all by himself. Aggie RB Courtney Lewis
is as good as anyone in the Big 12 and the Ags return
four offensive lineman. A young Aggie secondary
was burned again and again a year ago, but all of them
return, which is you know is huge in college football.
They'll need to play well, and keep Ute WR Parris Warren
under wraps. I like the underdog here. Utah
is 1-5 ATS (-4.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
over the last 3 seasons. This game should come down to
the fourth quarter, and the Ags may easily get an upset
on the road to start their season. We'll keep it
small due to the time of year. One unit on A&M
plus the points.
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California -13.5 (-110) vs. Air Force
Air Force is, simply put,
rebuilding this season. This is a team
that has been decimated by graduation. Cal, on
the other hand, returns one of the top QB
/ WR duo's in the country. The Bears have
16 returning starters while the Falcons have
only six. Air Force will have a very difficult
time stopping the Bears in this one. Air
Force is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) when they
are outgained by their opponents by 2 or
more yards/play since 1992. The average
score in those games was AFA 12.7, Opp. 41.3. On
the offensive side, AFA is starting a QB
who will be making his first career start. A
lot of points, but not enough. One
unit on the Bears here.
Toledo +11.5 (-110) vs.
Minnesota
Minnesota has a tremendous
duo in the backfield and wll defintely score
some points on Saturday. They may not
have the best offense in this game however. The
Rockets of Toledo have a damn good football
team and might just give the Gophers more than
they can handle in their opening contest. Toledo
is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in games played
on turf since 1992. In terms of value in week
one, there is not a better game on the board
on paper.
Colorado -4.5 (-110) vs. Colorado
State
This newly heated rivalry
gets another notch on Saturday night. The big difference in
this game is that it is in Boulder, not on a neutral field
in Denver, where CSU fans have historically shown up in droves. Expect
about five to seven thousand CSU fans this time
around and a major advantage for the more experienced Buffaloes
on their home turf. Justin Holland starts his second
game for the Rams in this one. While many pundits have questioned
the Buff defense, all noise out of Boulder points to major
improvement. A new 4-3 scheme is freeing up defenders to make
plays, something that has been absent in Boulder for years.
The Buffs return 16 starters all together, which is a very
good sign. The Rams defense only gets three starters back.
They should get pushed all over the field on this game. It's
early so we only offer one unit, but this one could get downright
ugly. After their offseason troubles, this Colorado team
is united and has something to prove. The Buffs for one unit.
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College Football
Resources
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Star Ratings Explained
I list a rating
next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star =
least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I give a weighting
to each game based on these ratings.
1
Star: bet 100 units
2 Stars: bet 200 units
3 Stars: bet 300
units
4 Stars: bet 400 units
View a more detailed explanation of
units and how I use and calculate them.
For beginners, this page
will also lead you to a good description of the
money-line. |
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