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2004 College
Football - Week 15
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!NAME_COMMA!
Iowa
State let the emotion and big time atmosphere of
their game against Missouri get to them as they flat
out laid an egg last week. Colorado is the benefactor
and heads to Kansas City to take on the vaunted
Sooners on Saturday night. While past situations and
Gary Barnett's track record point to a Colorado cover,
I just cannot give this game out based on what I've
seen. This is an enormous mismatch anyway it is cut.
Colorado is playing better than they were earlier in
the season, but their defense should not be able to
stop the Sooners. There's no doubt who'll win this
game, but 22 is a lot of points, and we've seen
Stoops call off the troops before (see Nebraska
earlier this season). Play this game at your own risk.
Expect the Buffaloes back in this game next year as
they lose only four players on their two deep this
off-season and will be loaded with experience at every
position next season.
I've
got five picks for this weekend as a warm up for the Bowls.
Good
luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!

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Miami
of Ohio and Toledo face off for the MAC
Championship on Thursday night in a rematch of a game
that saw the Redskins beat the Rockets 23-17 earlier
this season. Miami has answered the call without Ben
Roethlisberger and shoot for their second straight
MAC
Championship. Miami should win this game with their
defense. They have only given up three yards per rush
this season, which is a great number in college
football. Toledo's defense is not nearly as
accomplished giving up four yards per carry and a
whopping 38.5 points per game on the road this season.
Miami will win this one late. One star on Miami minus the points.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Army
and Navy meet once again in Philadelphia for
bragging rights. The game carries even more meaning
this time as the country continues to be at war and
many of the seniors suiting up Saturday will be headed
to Iraq when they graduate. Navy is 8-2 and a 13
point favorite over Army, who is but 2-8. A huge
mismatch right? I don't think so. Army has played a
much tougher schedule than the Midshipment (Army is
5-5 ATS) and Bobby Ross
has
re-instilled
a
sense of pride in to the Black Knights program. This
is too many points in this rivalry game this time
around. Army should be able to throw the ball on Navy
here as the Midshipmen are giving up a 65% pass
completion rate to their opponents this season and 8.8
yards per pass attempt. If Army can slow down Navy on
the ground, an upset could be in order. Army will
keep this game close and should have a chance to win
late in dramatic fashion. Army for one star plus the
points.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
Louisville
travels down to the Big Easy to face Tulane
in what should be another chance for the Cards to flex
their muscles. The line, currently at 29, is huge.
Too huge. Sure, Louisville bombed Cincinnati last
weekend, but UC did not have their starting quarterback
and were
a
nightmare on special teams. The Green Wave have
covered their last three contests and are off the
heels of beating TCU in Fort Worth last weekend which
is no easy chore. Throw in the fact that Tulane is
9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with
6
or less days rest over the last 3 seasons and there's
reason to like the Wave here. The Green
Wave will not win this game, but I like them to catch
the Cards sleep walking a bit to get the cover. One
star on Tulane to keep this closer than four touchdowns.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
This
line is an enigma to me. Yes, I understand that
a few months ago I stated that the Hokies would
underperform this season. Here they stand, however,
one win
away
from an ACC Championship and a BCS berth. Miami
stands in their way and the Canes have been playing
better of late having finally rekindled a running
game
with Frank Gore. But, Miami is only 5-14 ATS
after allowing 75 or less passing yards in their
last
game since 1992. I will admit that I grossly
underestimated the Hokies this season. Brant Randall
has been spectacular and it should continue here.
I
also like the fact that the Hokies were in a big
game
atmosphere just last weekend while the Canes were
idle. This game will be a classic that goes down
to
the final minutes in the fourth quarter. Three
stars
on the Hokies plus the points this Saturday.
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
A
line that is too low. Folks, while it's debatable
where Auburn stacks up relative to Oklahoma
and USC, there's no denying that they deserve
to be in that elite group. They have a chip
on their shoulder at #3 and will be looking
to take it out on Tennessee. The Tigers are
the most physical team of the three and
also
happen
to have
the best
running
game
in
the country.
Their defense is fast fast fast, and will hit
you
square in the mouth. The Vols enter this game
only
1-5 ATS vs. very good defensive
teams who
give up 14 or less points/game over the last
3
seasons. Does not good for Claussen and the Vols.
Ainge is done for the season following his collarbone
injury and the Vols really struggled with the
Kentucky
Wildcats, who have the worst offense in the SEC,
last
weekend. The Vols defense has struggled all season
long, and Saturday night will be no different.
The
Tigers will be on a mission to demonstrate their
superiority to a National audience and they will
- all
night long. Auburn is 10-0 ATS in road
games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over
the
last 3 seasons. In those ten games, Auburn won
by an average score of 28 to 12. Auburn minus
the points for four stars (4% of bankroll).
(Bet
game @ BoDog | Bet
game @ BetOnline)
See
Star-Ratings section below for recommendations on betting
amounts.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for each
pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed to be an even
$5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation
that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given
game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent.
There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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The
information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended
for informational purposes only. No guaranteees or warranties
are implied. Use this information at your own risk.
Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
College
Football Picks from freeunderdog.com
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