Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
2004 College Football - Week 15
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Iowa State let the emotion and big time atmosphere of their game against Missouri get to them as they flat out laid an egg last week. Colorado is the benefactor and heads to Kansas City to take on the vaunted Sooners on Saturday night. While past situations and Gary Barnett's track record point to a Colorado cover, I just cannot give this game out based on what I've seen. This is an enormous mismatch anyway it is cut. Colorado is playing better than they were earlier in the season, but their defense should not be able to stop the Sooners. There's no doubt who'll win this game, but 22 is a lot of points, and we've seen Stoops call off the troops before (see Nebraska earlier this season). Play this game at your own risk. Expect the Buffaloes back in this game next year as they lose only four players on their two deep this off-season and will be loaded with experience at every position next season.

I've got five picks for this weekend as a warm up for the Bowls.

Good luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!

The Wunderdog

This Week's Picks

*Miami Ohio -1.5 (-110) vs. TOLEDO (Check latest line)

Miami of Ohio and Toledo face off for the MAC Championship on Thursday night in a rematch of a game that saw the Redskins beat the Rockets 23-17 earlier this season. Miami has answered the call without Ben Roethlisberger and shoot for their second straight MAC Championship. Miami should win this game with their defense. They have only given up three yards per rush this season, which is a great number in college football. Toledo's defense is not nearly as accomplished giving up four yards per carry and a whopping 38.5 points per game on the road this season. Miami will win this one late. One star on Miami minus the points. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

 

*Army +13 (-110) vs. NAVY (Check latest line)

Army and Navy meet once again in Philadelphia for bragging rights. The game carries even more meaning this time as the country continues to be at war and many of the seniors suiting up Saturday will be headed to Iraq when they graduate. Navy is 8-2 and a 13 point favorite over Army, who is but 2-8. A huge mismatch right? I don't think so. Army has played a much tougher schedule than the Midshipment (Army is 5-5 ATS) and Bobby Ross has re-instilled a sense of pride in to the Black Knights program. This is too many points in this rivalry game this time around. Army should be able to throw the ball on Navy here as the Midshipmen are giving up a 65% pass completion rate to their opponents this season and 8.8 yards per pass attempt. If Army can slow down Navy on the ground, an upset could be in order. Army will keep this game close and should have a chance to win late in dramatic fashion. Army for one star plus the points. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

 

*TULANE +29 (-110) vs. Louisville (Check latest line)

Louisville travels down to the Big Easy to face Tulane in what should be another chance for the Cards to flex their muscles. The line, currently at 29, is huge. Too huge. Sure, Louisville bombed Cincinnati last weekend, but UC did not have their starting quarterback and were a nightmare on special teams. The Green Wave have covered their last three contests and are off the heels of beating TCU in Fort Worth last weekend which is no easy chore. Throw in the fact that Tulane is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons and there's reason to like the Wave here. The Green Wave will not win this game, but I like them to catch the Cards sleep walking a bit to get the cover. One star on Tulane to keep this closer than four touchdowns. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

 

***Virginia Tech +7 (-110) vs. MIAMI (Check latest line)

This line is an enigma to me. Yes, I understand that a few months ago I stated that the Hokies would underperform this season. Here they stand, however, one win away from an ACC Championship and a BCS berth. Miami stands in their way and the Canes have been playing better of late having finally rekindled a running game with Frank Gore. But, Miami is only 5-14 ATS after allowing 75 or less passing yards in their last game since 1992. I will admit that I grossly underestimated the Hokies this season. Brant Randall has been spectacular and it should continue here. I also like the fact that the Hokies were in a big game atmosphere just last weekend while the Canes were idle. This game will be a classic that goes down to the final minutes in the fourth quarter. Three stars on the Hokies plus the points this Saturday. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

 

****AUBURN -13.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee (Check latest line)

A line that is too low. Folks, while it's debatable where Auburn stacks up relative to Oklahoma and USC, there's no denying that they deserve to be in that elite group. They have a chip on their shoulder at #3 and will be looking to take it out on Tennessee. The Tigers are the most physical team of the three and also happen to have the best running game in the country. Their defense is fast fast fast, and will hit you square in the mouth. The Vols enter this game only 1-5 ATS vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons. Does not good for Claussen and the Vols. Ainge is done for the season following his collarbone injury and the Vols really struggled with the Kentucky Wildcats, who have the worst offense in the SEC, last weekend. The Vols defense has struggled all season long, and Saturday night will be no different. The Tigers will be on a mission to demonstrate their superiority to a National audience and they will - all night long. Auburn is 10-0 ATS in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons. In those ten games, Auburn won by an average score of 28 to 12. Auburn minus the points for four stars (4% of bankroll). (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)

See Star-Ratings section below for recommendations on betting amounts.
Resources

College Football Resources

  Up-to-Date NCAA Football ATS Records
  College Football Game-of-the-Week Preview
  Live College Football Football Lines
  Latest College Football News

Pass It On

Betting Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed to be an even $5000.

  * (1 star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
  ** (2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
  *** (3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
  **** (4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
  ***** (5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
  ****** (6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)

To determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my strong recommendation that you never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent. There are no such thing as locks. See my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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Good Luck.

 

The Wunderdog

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