Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
2004 College Football - Week 11
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Down the Stretch
We head into the stretch of the college football season. What have we learned so far? My thoughts after ten weeks...

Auburn and USC are by far the two best teams in the country. If Auburn is able to win out, they will leap frog Oklahoma and meet USC in the National Championship.

The Big 12 North has been horrific this season. Kansas State, Colorado, Nebraska and Missouri have all failed to live up to lofty preseason expectations, and have turned the Division into the joke of this season. Oklahoma will be most hurt by the lack of solid competition in the North this season, when they are bypassed by Auburn late in the season.

Adrian Peterson may be the best freshman running back....ever. What he has done this season is nothing short of stunning and should position him to win the Heisman Trophy.

Utah is as good as anyone, save the top three teams in the country. The Utes should be given every opportunity to demonstrate that in a BCS bowl game. Urban Meyer will be a very hot commodity this offseason.

Boise State has had a nice season no doubt, but they would lose five times in the SEC, even on the Smurf Turf.

LSU has taken a step back this season. So much for 2004. But, the Tigers should be the preseason favorite to win the National Championship next season. Jamarcus Russell could be the next coming of Duante Culpepper.

Two good stories have emerged from the Big Ten. Barry Alvarez is once again demonstrating why he is one of the best coaches in the business. Wisconsin, which faces a big test this weekend against Minnesota, is a sleeper for the Orange Bowl. The story here has been the defense, where Erasmus James has turned into an absolute force along the DL. Purdue, until recently, was having a tremendous season thanks to QB Kyle Orton. Orton, who single-handedly carried the Boilermakers during their remarkable run earlier this season, will be a high pick in the NFL draft.

Four Picks this week
I like four games this weekend.

You can view my 2004 College Football picks, past newsletters and record here.

Good luck this weekend!COMMA_NAME!!

The Wunderdog

This Week's Picks

**ARMY +5 (-110) vs. Air Force (Check latest line)

Air Force has dominated this matchup, winning 14 of the last 15. But, this ain't your momma's Falcons. AFA has really struggled this season, and Army will look to take advantage this Saturday. Army has given up a lot of yards but has gained a lot as well. Teams with a poor defense (allowing 5.8 or more yards/play), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 78% ATS over the last 10 seasons. Army is averaging a very healthy 5.5 yards per rush while the Falcons are allowing 5 per carry on the road. Army should have success on the ground. Air Force is 4-15 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival since 1992. Bet 110 to win 100 on Bobby Ross and the Black Knights. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)


*Colorado +3.5 (-110) at KANSAS
(Check latest line)

Uuummm, I don't know, but someone has to win here and Colorado should get it done. Kansas was awful last week and so was Colorado. Colorado has not lost to a bad football team and tends to play better away from home this season. Since 1992, the Buffs are 16-6 ATS on the road in November while Kansas is 8-30 ATS during the month over the same time period. The Jayhawks are gaining under 300 yards per game and it's been getting worse (averaging just 234 per game over their last three). Barnett always gets stronger as the season wears on. Either team can take this one so why not grab the dog with over a field goal. Bet 55 to win 50 on the Buffs. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)


***Virginia Tech -10 (-110) at NORTH CAROLINA
(Check latest line)

VT is playing good football, while UNC comes off the heels of a huge emotional upset win over Miami. Virginia Tech is 21-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 while the Tar Heels can't seem to put back-to-back wins together. They are just 1-8 ATS after a win over the past 12 years. I don't think that UNC can maintain the intensity it would take to pull off two huge upsets in a row. Tech is just too good for NC to stay with 'em. The Hokies are putting up nearly 38 points per game over their last three while holding opponents to 10 points. NC's defense is has a lot of holes. Tech rolls here. Bet 165 to win 150 on the Hokies. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)


****Nebraska -5 (-110) at IOWA STATE
(Check latest line)
Did Bill Callahan learn the lesson last weekend that was obvious to the rest of us? Huskers running back Cory Ross tore apart the Missouri defense in the second half of last week's win against the Tigers. It's a gettin' cold in Big 12 country, and this is when the teams that can run the football will prevail. Nebraska is getting hot and if Ross gets 25 carries, they'll blow out the Cyclones. Iowa State is 0-8 ATS in the November and 4-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Huskers are allowing a stingy 2.7 yards per carry and should shut down the Iowa State offense completely. Bet 220 to win 200 on the Skers this Saturday. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline)
Resources

College Football Resources

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Good Luck.

 

The Wunderdog

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