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College
Basketball - January 29, 2005
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!NAME_COMMA!
Finally
returned to the winning ways in college hoops on Thursday
night with a couple of big wins. I like three games tonight.
View my previous 2004
CBB picks and 2004
NBA picks.
Good
luck tonight!COMMA_NAME!!
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Sure
the Jayhawks are 15-1
and get Texas at home.
But
this spread is too big.
Texas has shown an ability
to play well vs. very
good teams while Kansas
has
actually struggled this
season against very good
opposition. The Long
Horns are 5-1 ATS versus
very
good
teams (outscoring their
opponents by 8+ points/game)
this season while the
Jayhawks
are just 1-6
ATS in home
games vs. winning teams
this season. Also,
Kansas
is 6-16 ATS
versus very good defensive
teams (shooting pct defense
of <=39%) over the
last 3 seasons. The
public is overreacting
to Kansas at home on
a Saturday night. Take
Texas
plus the points for one
star.
Wisconsin
Milwaukee has been
impressive so far
this season but
W-GB is quitely
putting together
another suprisingly
great season again
this year. They
snuck up on many
teams last year
and they are doing
it again this season.
Tonight they get
a chance at home
vs. the defending
Horizon Conference
champions. This
intrastate rivalry
game should be
closer than this
spread. Take WI-GB
and the points
for one star.
Utah
State has picked
up where it left
off last year (25-4
overall and 17-1
in conference play).
HC Stew Morrill has
done a tremendous
job at keeping this
team at peak performance
despite the loss
of 3 starters from
last year's squad.
Tonight they get
the worst team in
the Big West and
should run roughshod
all over them from
start to finish.
Utah State is holding
opponents under 60
points per game.
In conference games,
Long Beach State
is scoring just 58.
Road favorites with
a
winning percentage
of 60%-80%) laying
10 or more points,
having
won
3 of their
last
4 games, facing a terrible
team (<20% SU)
are an incredible
27-7 (79%) ATS since
1997. Also, home
underdogs of 10 or
more points
coming off a game
in which they allowed
60 points or less
when facining an
opponent off a
win by 10 points
or more are just
23-53 (30%) ATS since
1997. Four stars
on Utah State minus
twelve.
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Betting
Recommendations and Unit Tracking
My star ratings equate to the following betting recommendations for
each pick. For tracking purposes on my site, my bankroll is assumed
to be an even $5000.
* (1
star) = 1% of bankroll (or $50)
**
(2 star) = 2% of bankroll (or $100)
***
(3 star) = 3% of bankroll (or $150)
****
(4 star) = 4% of bankroll (or $200)
*****
(5 star) = 5% of bankroll (or $250)
******
(6 star) = 6% of bankroll (or $300)
To
determine your bet amount, you should simply use the percentages
below, multiplied by your specific bankroll. It is my
strong recommendation that you
never bet more than 10% of your bankroll on any given
game - ever! You should usually bet just a few percent.
There are no such thing as locks. See my
write-up on Bankroll
Management.
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Good Luck.
The
Wunderdog
College
Basketball Picks from freeunderdog.com
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